Week 6 Fantasy Football Market Share Report: Keep Starting Tyler Higbee
With bye weeks and several injuries all across the fantasy landscape, this week is going to be a grind.
There's always debate over backing up running backs, but we've officially reached several cases of "here comes the third-stringer." The takeaway: don't get comfortable with your lineup. Be ready to add pieces with a path to touches, and get very familiar with current depth charts and usage situation.
I can help you do just that.
Rushing Market Shares
Darrel Williams, Chiefs
Darrel Williams passed all of the major tests in the Kansas City Chiefs' first game without Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Williams took on 21 of 24 running-back carries and 4 of the 8 targets to running backs. Williams handled 71.9% of the total snaps for Kansas City while also running a route on 31 of 57 Patrick Mahomes drop backs.
That kind of usage is going to make Williams a no-doubt fantasy starter for as long as CEH is out, and he has an RB1 floor/ceiling combination. Our model rates him as Week 7's RB11.
Khalil Herbert, Bears
Khalil Herbert took on the lion's share of the backfield work for the Chicago Bears on Sunday with Damien Williams and David Montgomery out.
Herbert was a true workhorse, handling all 19 of Chicago's running-back carries while adding 2 targets. He turned those touches into 19 rushing yards and a score plus 2 catches for 15 receiving yards. He logged an 89% snap rate.
Williams' Week 7 status is up in the air, but even with Williams playing in Week 5, Herbert carried the rock 18 times. He's looking like a flex-type option if Williams returns and a high-end RB2, at worst, if Williams misses another game. Herbert projects as our RB24, and that's with our model assuming Williams suits up.
Receiving Market Shares
Robby Anderson, Panthers
Robby Anderson, wide receiver for the Carolina Panthers, received 11 targets on Sunday. That's the good news.
Anderson, however, caught just 3 of them for 11 yards. He salvaged what would've been a brutal day with a touchdown. The stats are bleak, but the target share is promising.
His 29.7% target share last Sunday was second on the team behind D.J. Moore, who was targeted 13 times for a 35.1% share. Anderson has now seen 11, 7 and 11 targets across his last three games -- good for a 31% air yards share and 25% target share in that time, the latter of which is just 1 percentage point off Moore's.
Ideally, we'd like to see better production from Anderson, but you have to think the numbers will come if the usage sticks.
Tee Higgins, Bengals
On Sunday, Tee Higgins had 6 targets and enjoyed a 21.4% target share, which tied rookie sensation Ja'Marr Chase for the team lead.
Higgins now has 13 total looks across the last two games since returning from injury. In that span, he and Chase have 22% target shares while Tyler Boyd owns a 12% clip as a distant number-three option. Boyd has just a 6% air yards share over the last two.
The Cincinnati Bengals' schedule gets tougher the rest of the way, which could lead to more pass-heavy game scripts for Higgins. He's our rest-of-season WR24 and possibly an undervalued piece to target in trades.
Red Zone Market Shares
Zack Moss, Bills
Zack Moss leads Devin Singletary in red zone work despite playing one fewer game. Moss has 19 red zone rushes and 3 red zone touchdowns on the season, which accounts for 39.5% of Buffalo's red zone carries.
Singletary, on the other hand, has only 11 red zone rushing attempts this season and has yet to punch a red zone carry into the end zone.
Moss' real competition in the red zone is Josh Allen, who has 16 red zone rushes and 2 touchdowns.
After playing 74% of the snaps in Week 5, Moss' stock was on the rise, as he appeared to be taking over the timeshare. While things were more even on Monday night in Week 6 (55% to 45% in favor of Moss), Moss is going to be a viable fantasy starter as a flex-type running back.
Our model is high on him, ranking Moss as the RB22 the rest of the way.
Tyler Higbee, Rams
Among the top red zone target leaders is Tyler Higbee.
Higbee has 9 red zone targets, which ranks seventh among all players -- not just tight ends. A hurdle for Higbee is teammate Cooper Kupp, who is tied for the league lead with 12 red zone looks and has a whopping 6 red zone touchdowns.
But the red zone work coupled with consistently excellent snap rates -- including 100% of the snaps a week ago -- is going to keep Higbee's TE1 stock afloat. We rank Higbee as the TE6 the rest of the way.
