Week 5 Fantasy Football Market Share Report: A New Detroit Pass-Catcher Sees a Lion's Share of the Work
It's that point in the season where you might be tearing up your projections or with a little luck, celebrating some of your sleeper picks. But now's not the time to get lazy or comfortable! Even with your 4-1 record -- or much worse than that -- it is still time to act and change up your roster.
Now is a perfect opportunity to look at players who might be undervalued and pounce with an offer before it's too late. Let's look at who's market share was worth noting following Week 5 of the NFL season.
Rushing Market Shares
The Atlanta Falcons' lead tailback Mike Davis went 13 rushes for 53 yards and a rushing score in Week 5 against the Jets in London. However, the surprise competition to his role -- Cordarrelle Patterson -- actually leads the team in rush share (albeit slightly). Patterson had 14 carries for 54 yards, which places the two in extremely close proximity on the ground
Patterson, though, dominated in the receiving game. He had 7 receptions for 60 yards on 9 targets, and it appears Davis won't come close to matching that. Davis had two receptions for eight yards, but he was targeted five times, which implied better days could be ahead.
With Davis playing second fiddle still to Patterson, he still has a substantial role in this dome offense. His fantasy managers are likely looking to sell high this week, so now is the time to buy if he goes well below market value in your league.
As many anticipated before the season, the Jets may be turning things over to Michael Carter. The rookie led the team in rush shares in Week 5 with 10 carries for 38 yards and a touchdown. He also added 3 receptions for 20 yards on 3 targets.
His 55.5% rush share in Week 5 was dominant, and his role is now becoming clear. Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman combined for only seven carries on Sunday. If this offense can improve (miraculously) in quality down the stretch, Carter may be a buy-low workhorse entering Week 6.
Receiving Market Shares
It’s hard to believe that the Chicago Bears seemed to have forgotten Allen Robinson, but they basically have in 2021 thus far. In Week 5, Robinson caught 4 passes for 32 yards on 5 targets. The once-prized acquisition and it appears he is at least somewhat unhappy about his current role. Could it be another "squeaky wheel" narrative similar to the one that just busted Robert Woods out of a similar fog? Perhaps.
Robinson is an elite wide receiver in talent, and therefore, the time to buy low is now. As rookie quarterback Justin Fields gets more comfortable working with Robinson, he has the potential to break out in the second half of the season with a 24.2% target share overall. That is a solid number, but this offense just needs to get better, and that is definitely possible with Fields.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Amon-Ra St. Brown had the breakout week many expected from the rookie this season. In Week 5, he led the Detroit Lions with 7 receptions for 65 yards on 8 targets. His competition in Detroit is nothing substantive, as five different Lions have led the team in target in five weeks. That could make him a great candidate to buy now.
His Week 5 workload netted a 29.6% target share, and that may stay as Quintez Cephus and Tyrell Williams continue to battle injuries. Cephus is now out multiple weeks with a broken collarbone, and Williams is fighting a concussion. His closest receiving competition at this stage is running back D'Andre Swift, and that allows for a potential top pass-catcher at a tremendously low price.
Red Zone Market Shares
However, much to the dismay of Edmonds fantasy managers, Conner has 15 red zone carries and a 51.7% of the red zone rushing shares to lead the backfield. The Cardinals' offense is humming to the tune of 0.14 Adjusted Net Expected Points (NEP) overall, and if Conner continues to see the vast majority of goal-to-go scoring chances, he will continue to be fantasy relevant -- like it or not.
When pondering players that possess red zone prowess, Zach Pascal's name probably doesn't come up right away. It should.
Through Week 5, Pascal's 41.9% of the Colts' red-zone targets, and that has parlayed into three touchdowns in five games. In deeper formats, that makes him an interesting wide receiver to target with scoring upside, even with Michael Pittman Jr. (26.3% overall target share) entrenched as the team's top option.
T.Y. Hilton is returning soon, but he is largely washed as evidenced by a shockingly-low -0.59 Receiving NEP per target in 2020. Expect Indy to continue to give Pittman Jr. and Pascal the most notable pass-catching opportunities this season.