Sunday Night Football Betting: Will This Game Live Up to the Lofty Total?
We have a massive game on our hands tonight, as the 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs host the 3-1 Buffalo Bills. The Chiefs have looked like mere mortals through four weeks, especially on the defensive side, and the back-to-back Super Bowl participants are looking to get in gear. But they're in a tough spot tonight.
The home Chiefs are presently 2.5-point favorites, and there's a huge over/under of 56.5 points, per NFL odds.
Let's dive into what we think could be some interesting betting angles for this contest.
Two Offensive Juggernauts
While we are just four games into this 17-game season, there are some clear lines being drawn by both teams. Let's start with each team's defense.
These two teams are basically going in opposite directions on defense. The Chiefs are the league's second-worst defense, per our schedule-adjusted metrics, and they have been absolutely slashed by the running game, clocking in as the league's worst run D. In Week 2 against the Baltimore Ravens, they were picked apart for a whopping 251 rushing yards. On the flip side, the Bills are the league's best defense -- both overall and against the pass, which means Patrick Mahomes will certainly have his work cut out for him.
Now, the offenses are in different directions, as well -- although not as wide of a margin as the defenses. The Chiefs are the league's best offensive attack, ranking fourth with the run and as the league's best passing team. Looking through the lens of our Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, Mahomes ranks among the league's elite with has posted a mark of 0.47 Passing NEP per drop back. Josh Allen has been good, too -- he ranks a bit lower with only a mark of 0.17 NEP per drop back.
At the running back spot, the attacks are still trying to find their form.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the leading rusher for Kansas City, but the proposition of running hasn't been all that great -- he's posted -0.03 Rushing NEP per rush, meaning the Chiefs have been pretty inefficient on the ground so far. Buffalo has employed more of a committee approach. Allen, Devin Singletary and Zack Moss all have eclipsed 100 rushing yards so far this season, and Singletary needs to keep track of the ball, logging four fumbles already.
Historical Betting Trends
As these two top-10 teams meet up, we see some interesting betting trends across the board.
There is a little betting value on the home team. We expect them to cover the spread 58.24% of the time. And while this game has a massive total, we do give it about a 50% chance to hit.
Given how bad the passing defense is for Kansas City, I love Josh Allen's passing yards prop at 304.5 yards. This offense does like to lean on the pass. In the first game of the year, Allen dropped back to pass 51 times, and against Washington in Week 3, he tossed for 358 yards. Given that this has the potential for an offensive shootout, I love the over.
Historical Betting Trends
-- Betting on the Chiefs has been bad for bettors. They are only 2-12-1 ATS in their last 15 games.
-- On the other side of the coin, the Bills have been incredible. They are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games.
-- As a road 'dog, Buffalo has been great in this spot. They are 6-3-1 in ATS in their last 10.
-- These two teams met in the AFC Championship game last year, with the Chiefs winning 38-24.