FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 5 Sunday Night (Bills at Chiefs)
On FanDuel Sportsbook, the Kansas City Chiefs are 3.0-point home favorites over the Buffalo Bills in a game with a huge 56.5-point total. That makes the implied score 29.75-26.75. This should be awesome.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs ($17,000) and Josh Allen, Bills ($16,500)
I'm lumping the quarterbacks together for two reasons -- you don't need me to elaborate too much on them, and with so many viable MVP options on this slate, this is a way to keep the MVP section from being too big.
Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are two of the best fantasy quarterbacks, and both have sky-high single-game ceilings. They've also been salaried up for this matchup, which has all the makings of a wildly entertaining shootout (56.5-point total and 3.0-point spread).
You can make a straightforward case for using either signal-caller as your MVP, but I prefer Allen -- even before factoring in the $500 salary difference. He gets a KC defense that has allowed the second-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks (26.7) and just permitted Jalen Hurts to rack up 28.18 points.
We project Allen for 24.7 FanDuel points, a slate-best mark, and also rate him as the top point-per-dollar option. Mahomes comes in with a projection of 23.4 FanDuel points.
Tyreek Hill ($13,500) and Travis Kelce ($13,000), Chiefs
Tyreek Hill is fresh off a slate-breaking 42.1 FanDuel points last week. His elite ceiling makes him perfectly suited for single-game slates, and he's posted 31.6, 4.4, 7.2 and 42.1 FanDuel points through four games.
The usage is excellent as Hill owns a 26% target share and 42% air yards share. Yes, please.
The Bills have given up just 16.3 FanDuel points per game to wideouts this season. That's the fewest in the league by 4.1 points. But while it's a bad matchup, matchups don't matter all that much for Hill, and that was proven last week against a Philadelphia Eagles D that's been stingy versus receivers. Plus, Hill didn't have much trouble with this defense in the AFC title game last year, going off for nine catches and 172 yards -- although he was held to three grabs for 20 yards in the 2020 regular-season meeting.
Travis Kelce -- who has a 22% target share and 21% air yards share -- is one of the rare tight ends who is a viable MVP pick, and he'd been consistently good this year prior to his 4.3-point dud last week. In the first three weeks, Kelce had posted 22.6, 20.4 and 13.9 FanDuel points, and we know what he's capable of.
Buffalo knows, too, because they had no answer for him in two matchups last season. Kelce scored two tuddies in each game and went ballistic -- 13 catches for 118 yards and 2 tuds -- in the AFC Championship.
The KC passing game runs through these two, with no other player having more than a 13% target share. There is room for both to eat on Sunday night. Our model has Hill scoring 16.4 FanDuel points, tops among non-quarterbacks, and Kelce isn't far behind at a projection of 15.4 points.
Stefon Diggs, Bills ($12,500)
Stefon Diggs is my favorite MVP play on the slate. I'm not sure how MVP popularity will shake out with so many top-level MVP choices, but he profiles as the kind of weird-but-not-too-weird MVP pick I'm drawn to.
I'm not sure the Kansas City D can handle Diggs. KC is permitting the 10th-most FanDuel points per game to wideouts (34.2), and that number could be even worse if not for some called-back touchdowns last week versus Philadelphia. Our schedule-adjusted metrics rank the Chiefs as the second-worst overall defense and the fifth-worst pass defense.
With 21 targets across the last two weeks, Diggs' target share (27%) and air yards share (35%) are up to elite levels, and he's due for a big game, as he's scored only one touchdown this year, including none over the last two weeks despite the massive volume.
Buffalo should have to keep their foot on the gas all night, and a Diggs eruption game could be in store. We forecast him for 15.5 FanDuel points.
Zack Moss ($10,500) and Devin Singletary ($9,500), Bills
Moss has out-snapped Singletary in each of the last two weeks, playing 56% of the snaps in each game, compared to Singletary's marks of 43% and 44%. In that time, Moss has 30 total touches (three catches), while Singletary has handled 27 touches (two receptions). For the season, Singletary has seen 11 targets to Moss' six.
The Chiefs' run defense has been vulnerable for a while, and that's no different this season. Our metrics have KC as the league's worst run D by a wide margin, and they've allowed the fifth-most FanDuel points per game to running backs (26.5) despite having the eighth-fewest carries against them.
We project Singletary for 7.9 FanDuel points and Moss for 6.8. Given that Singletary offers $1,000 in savings, he makes a lot of sense.
Emmanuel Sanders, Bills ($9,000)
Emmanuel Sanders has been a key piece for Buffalo's passing game. For the season, he's actually played one more snap than Diggs has, and while Cole Beasley ($10,000) narrowly edges Sanders in target share, Sanders' 28% air yards share runs circles around Beasley's 11% air yards share.
I will be tempted to fade the Buffalo backfield -- even though it's a great matchup for them -- and go all-in on the Bills' passing game, including Sanders.
Sanders is super easy to like given his usage and modest salary. We have him scoring 9.9 FanDuel points and slot him in as the top point-per-dollar play among those who are salaried under $11,000.
Mecole Hardman, Chiefs ($7,500)
Mecole Hardman has played at least 52% of the snaps in every game, and we need to save salary somewhere.
Hardman can pay off in one chunk play, and while his 13% target share and 12% air yards share won't get anyone excited, those are the third-best clips on a KC offense that funnels so much of the targets through Kelce and Hill.
Could the addition of Josh Gordon ($6,500) relegate Hardman to the bench? Possibly. If you think that happens, I have a guy for you ...
Josh Gordon, Chiefs ($6,500)
Gordon is expected to make his debut, and there's really no way of knowing what we should expect. He could immediately surpass Hardman and Demarcus Robinson ($6,000) and be Kansas City's number-two wideout, or he could play a limited number of snaps in his first game back. We shall see.
Given Gordon's name value and the low salary, he may wind up being a fairly popular source of cap relief. Because of that, I'll mostly stay away, but we have him (4.1 FanDuel points) and Hardman (4.3) slated for similar outputs.
Gabriel Davis, Bills ($6,000)
Gabriel Davis showed promise a season ago but has been overtaken by Sanders. After playing 51% of the snaps in Week 1, Davis hasn't posted a snap rate above 43% since, and he's had one target apiece in the last two weeks.
Davis is the definition of a dart throw, and he's fully capable of a goose egg. But the $6,000 salary helps a lot, and the KC pass defense is bad. We project Davis for 4.1 FanDuel points, and he's a slightly better per-dollar value -- per our numbers -- than either Gordon or Hardman.