NFL
Adjusted NFL Pace and Pass Rate Report: Ranking Week 5's Fastest Games
Which teams are fastest and slowest after adjusting for context, who throws the most frequently when the game is still winnable, and what does it mean for the upcoming week of games?

Pace and pass rate can tell us a lot about offensive tendencies for NFL teams, but you'll often find some flawed ways of analyzing such data.

Teams that are trailing will -- naturally -- be inclined both to play faster and throw more often than they may initially want to do.

Conversely, perhaps quick, pass-heavy teams are getting out to big leads and are then slowing things down in the fourth quarter and grinding clock.

These will affect raw outputs for team data, so I wanted to account for that.

That's why I'm presenting both pace (seconds per play) and pass rate while looking only at plays on which a team's pre-snap win probability (as designated by nflfastR's live win models) was between 20% and 80%.

Here are the results through Week 4.

Passes and Rushes
When Win
Probability is 20-80%
Seconds/Play Rank Pass Rate Rank
DAL 27.1 1 57.9% 21
NE 27.1 2 69.2% 2
WAS 27.5 3 58.0% 20
ATL 27.8 4 60.4% 13
CHI 28.1 5 49.5% 28
HOU 28.2 6 48.6% 31
MIN 28.6 7 61.1% 11
LAC 28.6 8 65.3% 5
PHI 28.7 9 61.8% 9
TB 28.9 10 69.8% 1
ARI 29.0 11 61.3% 10
JAX 29.3 12 53.1% 26
TEN 29.4 13 53.8% 25
MIA 29.5 14 63.2% 7
SEA 29.5 15 54.5% 24
NYG 29.6 16 59.9% 15
KC 29.8 17 60.1% 14
LA 29.8 17 59.8% 16
NO 30.2 19 46.6% 32
BUF 30.6 20 62.6% 8
LV 30.7 21 65.6% 4
SF 30.7 22 57.0% 23
NYJ 31.4 23 57.5% 22
CLE 31.4 24 52.0% 27
CIN 31.6 25 58.2% 19
DET 31.8 26 48.9% 30
PIT 32.0 27 67.4% 3
BAL 32.2 28 49.2% 29
IND 32.3 29 58.2% 18
GB 32.4 30 58.3% 17
CAR 32.5 31 60.8% 12
DEN 32.9 32 64.9% 6
NFL Average 29.9 59.0%

Week 5 Lookahead

Here's a look at next week's games in terms of average pace and pass rate. The table is initially sorted by average offensive pace, so the higher the game, the faster it should be -- and the more plays we should anticipate.

Game Away
Pace
Home
Pace
Avg.
Pace
Rank Away
Pass%
Home
Pass%
Avg.
Pass%
Rank
NE@HOU27.128.227.6169.2%48.6%58.9%8
NYG@DAL29.627.128.4259.9%57.9%58.9%7
NO@WSH30.227.528.8346.6%58.0%52.3%16
MIA@TB29.528.929.2463.2%69.8%66.5%1
TEN@JAC29.429.329.3553.8%53.1%53.5%15
CHI@LV28.130.729.4649.5%65.6%57.5%11
NYJ@ATL31.427.829.6757.5%60.4%59.0%6
LA@SEA29.829.529.7859.8%54.5%57.2%12
SF@ARI30.729.029.9957.0%61.3%59.2%5
CLE@LAC31.428.630.01052.0%65.3%58.6%9
DET@MIN31.828.630.21148.9%61.1%55.0%13
BUF@KC30.629.830.21262.6%60.1%61.4%3
PHI@CAR28.732.530.61361.8%60.8%61.3%4
GB@CIN32.431.632.01458.3%58.2%58.2%10
IND@BAL32.332.232.21558.2%49.2%53.7%14
DEN@PIT32.932.032.41664.9%67.4%66.1%2

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