NFL Week 5 Power Rankings: How Much Can We Trust the Cardinals' Hot Start?
Everyone has his or her own set of NFL power rankings, but not all of them are computer-driven, algorithmically-derived approaches that look at underlying data to figure out true team strength.
But numberFire's power rankings do.
Using our nERD metric, which indicates the expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field, here is how our model ranks and rates all 32 teams after four weeks.
The Bottom 8
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank |
Rank Change |
Playoff Odds |
xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 0-4 | -9.02 | 32 | -1 | 3.9% | 0.9 |
| Lions | 0-4 | -8.69 | 31 | -1 | 0.4% | 0.4 |
| Falcons | 1-3 | -7.60 | 30 | -1 | 0.6% | 1.0 |
| Texans | 1-3 | -6.95 | 29 | -2 | 13.7% | 0.8 |
| Jets | 1-3 | -6.65 | 28 | 4 | 7.0% | 1.2 |
| Raiders | 3-1 | -3.54 | 27 | -8 | 26.2% | 1.3 |
| Patriots | 1-3 | -3.43 | 26 | -8 | 13.8% | 1.4 |
| Giants | 1-3 | -3.33 | 25 | -1 | 5.6% | 0.7 |
There's one outlier team in all of this, and it's the Las Vegas Raiders, who have a 3-1 record and just finally lost on Monday Night Football in Week 4. Part of that can be explained away with a lot of close wins -- their 3-1 record comes with a point differential of just +4. Also, two of those close wins came against the Miami Dolphins (23rd in nERD) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (12th). The data is still hesitant on Jon Gruden's squad.
The New England Patriots' close call against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3rd) in Week 4 wasn't enough to stop a slide of 8 spots in our power rankings. The Pats' lone convincing showing was a 19-point win over the lowly New York Jets back in Week 2.
The Next 8
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank |
Rank Change |
Playoff Odds |
xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | 2-2 | -2.96 | 24 | 4 | 20.0% | 1.1 |
| Dolphins | 1-3 | -2.91 | 23 | 2 | 19.4% | 1.5 |
| Titans | 2-2 | -2.62 | 22 | 0 | 50.4% | 1.2 |
| Football Team | 2-2 | -2.45 | 21 | 5 | 15.8% | 1.1 |
| Eagles | 1-3 | -2.24 | 20 | 1 | 13.2% | 1.1 |
| Colts | 1-3 | -2.19 | 19 | 4 | 42.9% | 1.3 |
| Bengals | 3-1 | -2.11 | 18 | -1 | 34.8% | 1.4 |
| Seahawks | 2-2 | -0.59 | 17 | -1 | 50.8% | 1.2 |
A lot of this tier climbed a bit in the rankings, including the Chicago Bears, Washington Football Team, and Indianapolis Colts by at least four spots each. The Bears got clicking in Week 4 against the Detroit Lions, but head coach Matt Nagy is willing to derail any progress by turning the offense back over to Andy Dalton when healthy instead of sticking with rookie Justin Fields.
The Football Team climbed five spots of their own after a 34-30 win against the Atlanta Falcons. Aside from a 22-point loss to the Buffalo Bills (spoiler: our top team again), they have yet to win or lose by more than 4 points.
The Indianapolis Colts' 10-point win over the 'Phins slid them up 4 spots in our rankings, and their playoff odds are now 42.9% -- up from 23.0% a week ago.
The Above-Average 8
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank |
Rank Change |
Playoff Odds |
xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | 3-1 | 0.50 | 16 | -1 | 51.3% | 1.7 |
| Broncos | 3-1 | 0.99 | 15 | -11 | 55.4% | 1.6 |
| Browns | 3-1 | 1.07 | 14 | -4 | 79.2% | 1.3 |
| 49ers | 2-2 | 1.10 | 13 | -4 | 33.4% | 1.6 |
| Steelers | 1-3 | 1.14 | 12 | 8 | 21.0% | 1.6 |
| Panthers | 3-1 | 3.21 | 11 | -8 | 66.5% | 1.9 |
| Ravens | 3-1 | 3.39 | 10 | 1 | 79.8% | 2.0 |
| Saints | 2-2 | 3.56 | 9 | -4 | 68.1% | 1.7 |
The Denver Broncos' first loss came with a loss at quarterback, as well: Teddy Bridgewater is in the concussion protocol. They also earned a 3-0 record by facing teams 25th or worse in nERD through Week 3.
No team saw their playoff odds drop more than the San Francisco 49ers after falling to 2-2. Their odds are now down to a third (33.4%), but they were 65.2% last week. A divisional loss to the Seattle Seahawks could prove pivotal for their season trajectory, and no team saw their playoff odds climb more than the Seahawks themselves (from 26.7% to 50.8%)
The Top 8
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank |
Rank Change |
Playoff Odds |
xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 2-2 | 4.00 | 8 | 6 | 82.8% | 1.7 |
| Chargers | 3-1 | 4.77 | 7 | 6 | 79.6% | 2.0 |
| Cardinals | 4-0 | 4.78 | 6 | 0 | 80.7% | 2.2 |
| Vikings | 1-3 | 4.95 | 5 | 7 | 46.1% | 2.0 |
| Rams | 3-1 | 5.23 | 4 | -2 | 78.7% | 2.4 |
| Buccaneers | 3-1 | 5.53 | 3 | 5 | 85.1% | 2.3 |
| Cowboys | 3-1 | 7.61 | 2 | 5 | 83.7% | 2.2 |
| Bills | 3-1 | 9.35 | 1 | 0 | 90.0% | 2.4 |
The Kansas City Chiefs were a featured squad last week in the power rankings update, and the sentiment was not to panic. Their schedule remains quite open. That's not the case for next week against the Bills, but after that, they face no top-15 teams by nERD until they host the Dallas Cowboys (2nd) in Week 11.
I feel like I need to address the Minnesota Vikings here. They have a 1-3 record despite a +2 point differential. Remember, the Raiders' at 3-1 have a point differential of +4. The Vikings have had a pretty middling schedule, yet better days may not be coming. Sure, they get the Detroit Lions (31st) next week in Minnesota, but after that, it's four straight matchups with top-12 teams and six straight against top-16 teams. The data says they're a dangerous team, and while they're on the outside looking in with the playoff race, they could play spoiler throughout.
And we should point out that the Arizona Cardinals -- despite a 4-0 record -- are not the top team in our power ratings. In fact, they're not even in the top five. Why? Well, two of their wins have come against teams outside the top 20 (including the league-worst Jacksonville Jaguars). Yes, they have two wins against teams ahead of them in the power ratings (Minnesota and the Los Angeles Rams), but numberFire'ss algorithm has them ranked behind those squads. My ELO-based ratings have Arizona second in the NFL.
