Monday Night Football Betting: Will the Raiders Stay Undefeated?
The Las Vegas Raiders are the surprise team of the AFC starting the season with three wins, while the Los Angeles Chargers took down the Kansas City Chiefs on the road in Week 3. This has the makings of a great game and is a fun way to finish out this week’s action.
Here is how numberFire ranks each team heading into tonight’s game using our nERD metric and Net Expected Points (NEP):
| Team | nERD | nERD Rank | Off NEP Rank | Def NEP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 1.82 | 13 | 5 | 16 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | -0.94 | 19 | 12 | 19 |
Apologies to Raider Nation
Coming into the season, the Raiders’ win total line was 6.5. Now being the last remaining undefeated team in the AFC, that line has risen to 9.5 on Online Sportsbook.
Their Week 1 win over the Baltimore Ravens was impressive, though subsequent wins over the Pittsburgh Steelers and Miami Dolphins are looking less noteworthy over time.
Nevertheless, the Raiders' passing offense is on fire to start the season, ranking 6th in Adjusted Passing NEP per play. The Chargers are 10th in this category, so an air show could be likely.
Inside the Bets
Our models give a very slight edge to the Chargers, as it has them winning outright 55.8% of the time and covering the three-point spread only 42.1% of the time. With odds of -172 on the Chargers moneyline and -115 for them to cover, the implied probabilities (63.2% and 53.5%, respectively) compared to our model do not like taking the Chargers.
Our model does like taking the Raiders straight-up at +142 (implied probability 41.3%) and the over 51.5 points. However, we rate these bets as one out of five stars, which means not to bet the farm.
This season, the Raiders have been very slow starters on offense, mustering a lone field goal offensively and a safety in the first quarter. The Chargers have only 10 total points in their first quarters, as well. The first quarter total is only 10 points but taking the under at -112 is a good value.
If the points don’t come in the first quarter, they have to come at some point get close to that 51.5 total. That’s why I like the second half over (24.5 | -110) in addition to our model’s recommendation on taking the over for the entire game.
A Final Note
The Raiders are 1-3 against-the-spread (ATS) in their last four road games, while the Chargers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
