Daily Fantasy Football Floor and Ceiling Projections: Week 4

Fantasy football is a volatile game.

Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.

It happens. A lot.

And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.

That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.

Table Terms

FanDuel Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Median FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value: Projected median FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct: The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct: The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 2.75x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.

Quarterback

Simulation Results

Observations:
There are big expectations on Josh Allen ($8,500) and Patrick Mahomes ($8,700), both of whom have 75th-percentile outcomes over 30.0 FanDuel points. Their elevated salaries are reachable with some value at running back and receiver, at least. Their probability of a big game simply outperforms their popularity projections, specifically with Mahomes.

Kyler Murray ($8,200) may be falling under the radar a bit for some reason, but his ceiling remains high -- just behind the top two passers. In a potential shootout with the Los Angeles Rams, Murray and his lowered salary pops as a big leverage play. Popularity at quarterback always remains flat, so we don't have to get too cute at the position, and few (if any) lower-salaried options have the projectable ceilings of the studs.

Dak Prescott ($7,700) is a bit of an outlier with the salary, and the sims prefer him to fellow $7,700-passer, Russell Wilson even despite Prescott's matchup against the Carolina Panthers, who rank second in adjusted pass defense, according to numberFire's metrics.

Running Back

Simulation Results

Observations:
Derrick Henry ($10,200) is getting projections love, which makes sense. The Tennessee Titans are dealing with injuries to A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, which should lead to plenty of work for Henry. It does, though, lower offensive expectations, so while it's easy to recommend Henry as the top option, there are slight concerns.

The sims love Alvin Kamara ($9,000) nearly as much. Kamara has a similar chance to get to 25.0 FanDuel points as Henry despite a poor game environment against the New York Giants.

The sims like Aaron Jones ($7,400), Saquon Barkley ($6,900), Antonio Gibson ($7,100), and Ezekiel Elliott ($7,000) to varying degrees, so we don't have to allocate $8,000-plus for running backs.

There is value available, however. Specifically with Chuba Hubbard ($6,300), yet the sims also are somewhat keen on Jonathan Taylor ($6,600), Miles Sanders ($6,500), and Mike Davis ($6,400). Hubbard should command a lot of popularity, but he's a cut above the other value backs.

Wide Receiver

Simulation Results

Observations:
As always, the stud receivers rate out quite well relative to one another, but don't gloss over the low $7,000 range with guys such as Calvin Ridley ($7,200), D.J. Moore ($7,300), and Terry McLaurin ($7,100).

High-ceiling plays due to air yards expectations below $7,000 include Odell Beckham ($6,600), Brandin Cooks ($6,900), Courtland Sutton ($6,300), and DeVonta Smith ($5,900).

Tight End

Simulation Results

Observations:
As usual, it's Travis Kelce ($8,200) or bust with legitimate, tangible odds to get to a big game. George Kittle ($6,700) may not play, which would make a 20-point game from Kelce near impossible to recover from at a certain point if no other tight ends go off.

The best odds to get to 15.0 FanDuel points are the usual suspects.

Notably, Mike Gesicki ($5,400) had 12 targets last week for 86 yards, flashing some rare yardage upside for a tight end.