4 NFL FanDuel Tournament Pivots for Week 4
If you've played daily fantasy sports for a while, you realize by now the importance of being contrarian, especially in large-field tournaments. Being able to recognize which players are going to be owned by the majority of the field -- and to find players who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership -- can help separate you from your opponents.
The purpose of this article will be to identify some players who will be the chalk at each position and how you can pivot off of them with high-upside options that could go overlooked.
Let's take a look at pivot options for Week 4.
Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons ($6,700)
Ryan has been truly uninspiring this season, and if he can't get it done this week, it might be time to move on. Outputs of 7.3, 19.3, and 15.6 FanDuel points in the first three games has Ryan as the QB25. Hopefully, he is able to turn this around this week against Washington, a defense that comes in allowing 27.7 FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks, which is the most in the league. It's now or never for Ryan.
According to SharpFootballStats, Washington's defense is 26th in the league (55%) when it comes to passing success rate allowed. They've allowed Daniel Jones and Josh Allen to post 29 and 37 fantasy points in the past two weeks and have had no answers for quarterbacks.
It's clear the WFT defense is struggling this season, and given Ryan's lackluster start this campaign, he shouldn't be popular but has an amazing matchup this week.
Chris Carson, RB, Seattle Seahawks ($7,300)
The options at running back this week are vast, and it could cause Chris Carson to go overlooked.
Despite being known for having a strong defense, the San Francisco 49ers can't stop running backs this year. They come in allowing the seventh-most (24.7) FanDuel points per game to the position, a trend which should only continue this week. We see the Seattle Seahawks sporting a solid 24.25 implied team total in a game with a 51.5-point over/under.
Carson's salary also falls right after the top tier and above the value options, putting him in an awkward spot. Carson is in no-man's land this week.
Carson is playing on 61.8% of the snaps this season, running a route on 40.4% of the passing plays, and has seen 7 of the team's 8 red zone rushing attempts. While the snap count may not be super high, the other running backs for the Seahawks aren't being productive with their time on the field and ultimately, aren't a threat to Carson.
While his pass-catching role is limited, Carson's path to upside is clear in a very favorable matchup this week.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts ($5,800)
Michael Pittman Jr. is seeing a lot of targets and shouldn't be popular.
At under $5,800, Pittman is arguably my favorite pivot and value wide receiver all wrapped in one. The mid-tier at wide receiver is loaded this week with Christian Kirk ($6,000) playing in a potential shootout. DeVonta Smith ($5,900) is also playing in what should be a shootout. Robby Anderson ($5,700) is expected to be more involved in the Carolina Panthers' offense. Cole Beasley ($5,900) and Emmanuel Sanders ($5,800) own a super soft matchup versus the Houston Texans. It's really a loaded week in the mid-tier, and Pittman should be going overlooked.
With 28 targets through the first three weeks, Pittman has 10 more than the next highest player on the Colts. Pittman has a solid 10.4-yard average depth of target (aDOT) and is playing on 93.8% of the snaps. He is running a route on 97.5% of the passing plays and has compiled a team-high 302 air yards. He has done all of this and has yet to find the end zone this season, but that is going to change this week.
He is going up against the Miami Dolphins, who are allowing 30.1 FanDuel points per game to wide receivers. With all of the underlying metrics you could ask for, a solid matchup, and set to be overlooked, Pittman is a fantastic pivot at wide receiver.
Noah Fant, TE, Denver Broncos ($5,700)
Tight end continues to be a top-heavy position.
Whenever Travis Kelce, George Kittle, T.J. Hockenson, and Mark Andrews are all on the same slate, we know where people will be going. Week in and week out they are the most popular options, the most consistent plays, and the dudes with the most upside. This is nothing new, and it opens the door to finding contrarian production if you are willing to venture outside of the top guys.
This is where Noah Fant comes into the fold at $5,700 versus the Baltimore Ravens in what is a surprisingly soft matchup. This season, the Ravens are allowing a league-high 17.5 FanDuel points per game to tight ends. The volume of injuries the Ravens have on the defensive side of the ball appears to be catching up with them and it's leading to plenty of fantasy points for tight ends.
Fant, surprisingly, has the second-most (17) targets on the Denver Broncos as well as the most red-zone targets (5). He is playing on a team-high 80.2% of the snaps and running a route on 63.7% of passing plays, which is the second-highest mark on the team. Fant is a quality pass-catching option in the Broncos' offense and should be overlooked this week.