4 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 3
Stacks fuel upside in FanDuel contests. To that point, colleague Brandon Gdula took a deep dive into hit rates and correlation for stacks. It's worth a read.
Every week, I'll lay out my four favorite stacks in this space. Here are the stacks I'm honing in on this week.
Wilson is thriving in new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron's offense. Among quarterbacks with at least 20 drop backs, he ranks fifth in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back. According to Pro Football Reference, he leads quarterbacks in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (11.35), and he's averaging 298.5 passing yards per game with a half-dozen touchdown passes.
In addition to firing on all cylinders out of the gate, Wilson's running an offense tied to the third-highest implied total (29.0 points) this week, per the numberFire Heat Map. He's one of the top quarterbacks on the slate, and our projections agree, expecting him to score the fifth-most FanDuel points at the position. Thus far, Tyler Lockett has been the primary beneficiary of Wilson's locked-in play. Therefore, he'll likely garner more attention from gamers.
Instead, I prefer to pivot to Metcalf and Everett as Wilson's stacking partners. Because the Seattle Seahawks have such a high implied total and the game's spread is only 2.5 points, I'm optimistic this is a back-and-forth affair that can support a three-person stack. As for Metcalf and Everett, their usage is encouraging for a fantasy-friendly outing.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Metcalf's 30.8 percent target share ties Lockett for the fifth-highest this season. He hasn't received the deep targets this year, but he's demonstrated that ability previously. As a result, he's skilled enough to take advantage of the Minnesota Vikings' struggles with explosive passing plays. Per Sharp Football Stats, Minnesota has permitted the ninth-highest average explosive pass rate (11 percent).
Finally, Everett's coming off a quiet second week, but he has notably pulled away from Will Dissly in playing time and passing-game usage. In Week 2, according to Pro Football Focus, Everett played 32 passing snaps, ran 28 routes, played the slot for 11 snaps, and played wide for nine. Comparatively, Dissly played only 14 passing snaps and ran nine routes. As a result, Everett has a chance to emerge as the third option in this passing attack, and at his modest salary, that role might allow him to provide value in an expected shootout.
New York Giants
I'm enamored with another three-person stack -- as long as Golladay can play through his hip injury. Jones is making strides in his third year, as evidenced by him earning Pro Football Focus's second-highest passing grade and new bests in completion percentage (63.8 percent), adjusted net yards per pass attempt (6.96), passing yards per game (258.0), and zero interceptions. The interception note is no small feat for a quarterback who has been turnover-prone through two seasons.
This week, he has a favorable matchup tap against the Atlanta Falcons. According to our power rankings, the Dirty Birds have the 10th-worst pass defense. I also need to mention Jones' rushing ability before circling back to his pass-catching options. Jones has rushed for 122 yards this year and averaged 28.4 rushing yards per game in his career. Also, fellow talented mobile quarterback Jalen Hurts gashed the Falcons for 62 yards on seven carries in Week 1.
Through the air, Shepard has been Jones' top option and has played superbly thus far. The talented wideout ranks 12th in target share (27.9 percent), converting 19 targets into 16 receptions for 207 yards and one touchdown. In addition, among 73 players targeted at least five times, his 2.65 yards per route run rank 21st, per Pro Football Focus. So, he's nicely blending volume and efficiency.
The G-men made a splash adding Golladay in free agency. While he hasn't gone off yet, he's played moderately well, ranking second on the team in targets (14) and receptions (seven) and third in receiving yards (102). The big-bodied vertical option has flashed that skill-set so far, sporting an average depth of target of 15.4 yards and reeling in three of six contested targets.
Kenny G's usage and calling cards fit like a glove in this week's matchup. The Falcons have struggled with explosive passes, yielding the sixth-highest average explosive pass rate (12 percent) through two weeks. This might be Golladay's first big game with Big Blue.
Collectively, these three have a high ceiling, especially if this turns into a shootout, which is a possibility with the Giants owning an implied total of 25.25 points and favored by only 3.0 points.
The Buffalo Bills opened the season with a pair of challenging defensive matchups, and Buffalo's passing attack hasn't functioned at a high level yet. The Washington Football Team might be another difficult matchup, but they've underachieved relative to preseason expectations. They rank as the 12th-worst pass defense by our schedule-adjusted metrics. As a result, this could be an opportunity for Allen to turn things around.
Not all is doom and gloom with Buffalo's offense and Allen's usage this year, though. According to Sharp Football Stats, when playing a scoring margin ranging from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points, Buffalo's passing at the ninth-highest rate (65 percent, higher than the league average of 59 percent). Additionally, they have kept their foot on the accelerator with the lead, attempting 31 passes and rushing 26 times when leading by eight or more points.
Allen also adds fantasy value with his legs, rushing for 79 yards this year. He's a running threat in scoring territory, too, rushing for 25 touchdowns in 46 games in his career. The matchup might allow him to tap into his rushing potential after Washington ceded 95 yards to Daniel Jones -- including a 46-yard run -- last week.
Getting back to Allen throwing the football, Diggs continues to be his number-one option. Diggs -- the 2020 NFL leader in targets (166), receptions (127), and receiving yards (1,535) -- is tied for 13th in target share (27.8 percent) this season. The rank might not sound terribly impressive, but the target share is higher than his 24.3 percent mark from last year, and it is in a pass-happy offense.
The combination of the offense's passing volume and Diggs target share has helped him net the seventh-most intended air yards (259), per Sports Info Solutions. Diggs' 6.5 receptions and 64.5 receiving yards per game with one touchdown through two weeks aren't bad numbers, but they're closer to his floor than his ceiling.
Our projections enhance my confidence in this stack, too. We project Allen as the fourth-highest scoring quarterback with the highest point-per-dollar rating and Diggs projects second in scoring among receivers with the fifth-highest value rating.
Here's your GPP-stack special. Derrick Henry had one of his patented blowup games last week, adding uncharacteristic receiving production for good measure. The Tennessee Titans are 4.5-point favorites with a tasty implied total of 26.50 points, setting up things for a Henry chalk week. It is understandable gamers will love Henry this week, and I do as well. He'll be a staple in my cash-game lineups, and I'll use him in GPPs, too.
Still, there's a golden opportunity to leverage the situation by being contrarian and stacking Tannehill and Brown. First, the matchup is easier for Tennessee's passing attack. The Indianapolis Colts rank as the eighth-best run defense, according to our metrics. Conversely, the pass defense ranks as the third-worst. Second, last week provided reasons for optimism for Tannehill and Brown going forward.
In Week 1, new offensive coordinator Todd Downing inexplicably underutilized play-action passes. According to Pro Football Focus, Tannehill used play-action on the second-lowest percentage of drop backs (11.6 percent) among quarterbacks who dropped back at least 10 times. In 2020 with Arthur Smith as the offensive coordinator, Tannehill used play-action on the highest percentage of drop backs (36.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 drop backs, excelling using it. Thankfully, Downing smartened up last week, dialing it up for 31.1 percent of Tannehill's drop backs. The return to play-action passing forbodes well for Tannehill and his receivers.
That was reflected in Tannehill's results last week. In Week 2, Tannehill completed 27 of 40 passes for 347 scoreless yards. The lack of touchdowns suppressed his fantasy output, but things will regress positively in that department. Maybe that will start this week.
Unfortunately for Brown, new running mate Julio Jones was the pass-catcher who took advantage of Tannehill's large yardage total a week ago, hauling in six of eight targets for 128 yards. Meanwhile, Brown reeled in only three of nine targets for 43 yards. Taking a glass-half-full outlook, Brown's nine targets led the team, and his 17 targets this year lead the way.
Two underwhelming games aren't going to cause me to freak out and forget Brown's otherworldly production last year. Among players targeted at least 50 times in 2020, he ranked fourth in yards per route run (2.65) and tied for eighth in yards after the catch per reception (6.1). Brown offers a dreamy blend of volume and extreme efficiency at his best.
Finally, Brown is popping in our projection model, checking in as the top point-per-dollar wideout. I love Brown this week, and stacking him with Tannehill is a high-ceiling maneuver.
Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.