NFL Betting Guide: Week 3
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using numberFire's betting model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for this weekend's NFL action.
Over 48.5 (-105); 3-Star Rating out of 5
An over bet in a game with a backup quarterback? Has our model lost its marbles?
Well, if there is positive news, Carson Wentz at least practiced Friday to add some hope he may be able to suit up for the Colts. Even with Jacob Eason or Brett Hundley, there still appear to be points scored in this one.
Both pass defenses enter this game struggling badly. Indianapolis is allowing 0.54 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back this year, which is second-worst in the league. Tennessee is fifth-worst at 0.39 Passing NEP per drop back. The easiest path to an over is always chunk passing plays, and this game figures to have ample opportunities for them.
This spread is moving toward Indianapolis, and certainly, a competitive game environment will help boost the total, too.
Under 51.5 (-112); 3-Star Rating out of 5
Week 3 is an opportunity to fade the public, and the public does not love one player in the world right now more than it loves Kyler Murray.
Other than the obvious letdown after a circus-like game at home ending on a missed field goal, the Cardinals' offense may be inefficient on Sunday without their top weapon at full health. DeAndre Hopkins is a game-time decision for Arizona in a game they are heavily favored. It is extremely possible Hopkins sits against the lowly Jaguars, of if he does suit up, he could get yanked early if this game isn't competitive.
Jacksonville's offense has also been incredibly inefficient considering the context of their games. Despite a league-high 73% pass rate, Trevor Lawrence and the Jags' passing attack is 27th in Adjusted Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back at -0.01. They do what they do poorly -- all the time.
This heavy total is truly on the basis of one side, and that is with the dynamic Arizona offense. No bettor is lining up to back the Jags' offensive efficiency.
Per numberFire's algorithm, this total is a bit inflated, and the under is a solid three-star bet in this spot.
Under 55.5 (-110): 5-Star Rating out of 5
The only five-star bet on the board this week is an under in a game many are calling an NFC Championship preview. What could go wrong?
Tampa Bay hits the road for the first time all season and will face a menacing pass rush. The Rams have 42 pressures and 7 sacks on the young season, and LA's defense is led primarily by Aaron Donald, per usual. The Bucs' first two opponents averaged 31 pressures and 1.5 sacks per game in their first two respective contests, so this will be a stiff test for Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay has above-average players across their offensive line according to PFF, but the question the remainder of the season will be how 44-year old Tom Brady can handle a game without pristine pass blocking. Their offense could sputter significantly in games Brady is forced under duress.
The Rams look like superheroes behind Matthew Stafford at this point, but their running game is a big question this week. Darrell Henderson is banged up with a rib injury, and his absence would potentially leave just Sony Michel and Jake Funk to carry the ball for LA. Tampa Bay is also numberFire's toughest test for running games thus far, allowing a stout -0.21 Rushing NEP per carry through two games.
Los Angeles has a 53% pass rate, which is seventh-lowest in the NFL. The running game is incredibly important to their offense, and it could be entirely non-existent on Sunday.
I personally agree with numberFire's model based on the paths to failure for each offense. While many are expecting a shootout based on the 2021 offensive performances of both sides, there are two strong defenses in this game, as well. The sharp play is to bet the under with confidence -- even inside a dome.