4 NFL FanDuel Tournament Pivots for Week 3
If you've played daily fantasy sports for a while, you realize by now the importance of being contrarian, especially in large-field tournaments. Being able to recognize which players are going to be owned by the majority of the field -- and to find players who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership -- can help separate you from your opponents.
The purpose of this article will be to identify some players who will be the chalk at each position and how you can pivot off of them with high-upside options that could go overlooked.
Let's take a look at pivot options for Week 3.
Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,800)
How many times are we going to say this? Tom Brady is showing no signs of slowing down.
Brady was the third-most-popular quarterback last week, and that is not where we should see him this week. Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 1.5-point road favorites set to take on the Los Angeles Rams, where the game total is set at 55.5 points.
Why isn't he going to be popular? Why? What's a realistic reason he won't be popular this week? He's facing the Rams' defense? I'll be honest, I don't care. This game has a 55.5 over/under with a 1.5-point spread, and even if the Rams get out to an early lead, it will cause the Bucs to go all passing in their offense -- what they should be doing anyway.
Both Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones have been massively ineffective on the ground, and this has led to Brady passing for 655 yards and 9 touchdowns in the first two games. Another 300+ yards and 3 touchdowns are firmly on the table for Brady this week.
numberFire's projections have Brady going for 21.4 FanDuel points, which is the sixth-highest on the slate, but I'll be surprised if he is among the top-five drafted quarterbacks this week.
Ty'Son Williams, RB, Baltimore Ravens ($6,400)
Ty'Son Williams shouldn't be popular this week but is in a smash spot.
The Baltimore Ravens find themselves as 7.5-point road favorites against the Detroit Lions, and we all know how this one is going to end. The Ravens are good, the Lions aren't. Yet, Williams isn't projected to be popular, and we want to jump on that in tournaments. The Lions are allowing 35.2 FanDuel points per game to running backs this season, which is the second-worst in the league.
There are some normal concerns for Ravens' running backs, so let's discuss those. First would be the potential for Lamar Jackson to take a rushing touchdown away from the runnings backs, which is a normal concern to have. However, it was reported he is dealing with a hip issue after last week's game. This could cause him to be slightly less willing to rush the ball in himself -- a boost for Williams.
Next is the potential snap share in the backfield with Latavius Murray. Williams has played on 48.9% of the snaps this season, while Murray is at 34.1%, so it's a reasonable issue. But, it should be noted that Murray has 0 targets through the first two weeks while Williams has 6, which means there are specific instances where the coaching staff is unwilling to use Latavius.
I'm leaning on Williams, again and again, this week.
Marvin Jones Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,300)
This is a really easy situation to break down, so let's do it.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 7.5-point home underdogs to the Arizona Cardinals, which should put the Jags in a positive passing game script. That's a plus. The Cardinals are allowing 36.5 FanDuel points per game to wider receivers, which is the 11th worst in the league. That's another plus.
We turn to Marvin Jones, who has a team-high 24.4% market share of targets. A third plus. He has a solid 13.95 average depth of target (aDOT) as well -- the second-highest on the Jaguars. That's a fourth plus.
All of this while no one is lining up to use a Jacksonville player means Jones should be massively overlooked this week, and that is the largest plus of all.
Noah Fant, TE, Denver Broncos ($6,100)
Fant was dealing with an ankle issue earlier in the week, but he was a full participant in practice on Friday, so he should be good to go. Fant has a solid 14 targets through the first two games and is lined up for an expanded role going forward with Jerry Jeudy out. This week's game against the New York Jets only has an over/under set at 41.5 points, which is the lowest on the slate.
That is a major reason we should see Fant -- and really all of the options in this game -- be less popular than other players. We also have to account for the fact Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, Rob Gronkowski, and T.J. Hockenson are all tight ends on the main slate. All of their games have higher totals, and those options have comparable or larger roles in their respective offenses.
An unpopular Fant can still do damage, though, and that is the best reason to use him against a terrible football team.