NFL

Adjusted NFL Pace and Pass Rate Report Through Week 2

Which teams are fastest and slowest after adjusting for context, who throws the most frequently when the game is still winnable, and what does it mean for the upcoming week of games?

Pace and pass rate can tell us a lot about offensive tendencies for NFL teams, but you'll often find some flawed ways of analyzing such data.

Teams that are trailing will -- naturally -- be inclined both to play faster and throw more often than they may initially want to do.

Conversely, perhaps quick, pass-heavy teams are getting out to big leads and are then slowing things down in the fourth quarter and grinding clock.

These will affect raw outputs for team data, so I wanted to account for that.

That's why I'm presenting both pace (seconds per play) and pass rate while looking only at plays on which a team's pre-snap win probability (as designated by nflfastR's live win models) was between 20% and 80%.

Here are the results through Week 2.

Passes and Rushes
When Win Probability
Is 20-80%
Seconds/
Play
Rank Pass
Rate
Rank
ATL 26.4 1 53.6% 25
NE 27.4 2 60.4% 14
WSH 27.4 3 58.1% 16
DAL 27.6 4 65.2% 8
CHI 28.2 5 51.8% 27
HOU 28.3 6 46.6% 32
PHI 28.3 7 54.5% 23
MIN 28.7 8 61.5% 13
LAC 28.9 9 68.2% 3
MIA 29.1 10 62.1% 12
TB 29.3 11 75.8% 1
SEA 29.4 12 55.6% 20
NO 29.7 13 48.4% 29
LA 29.9 14 54.7% 21
JAC 30.0 15 66.7% 5
BUF 30.1 16 65.0% 9
ARI 30.3 17 64.0% 10
NYG 30.3 18 58.4% 15
CAR 30.4 19 62.2% 11
KC 30.5 20 65.6% 7
CIN 30.8 21 56.1% 17
CLE 30.8 22 50.0% 28
TEN 30.9 23 54.7% 21
SF 31.2 24 52.9% 26
LV 31.3 25 69.1% 2
IND 31.5 26 55.7% 19
DET 31.8 27 54.3% 24
NYJ 31.9 28 48.1% 30
PIT 32.0 29 67.9% 4
BAL 32.7 30 47.0% 31
GB 32.9 31 56.0% 18
DEN 34.2 32 66.3% 6

Week 3 Lookahead

Here's a look at next week's games in terms of average pace and pass rate. The table is sorted by average offensive pace, so the higher the game, the faster it should be -- and the more plays we should anticipate.

Game Away
Pace
Home
Pace
Avg.
Pace
Pace
Rank
Away
Pass%
Home
Pass%
Avg.
Pass%
Pass%
Rank
PHI@DAL 28.3 27.6 27.9 1 54.5% 65.2% 59.8% 7
ATL@NYG 26.4 30.3 28.4 2 53.6% 58.4% 56.0% 10
NO@NE 29.7 27.4 28.5 3 48.4% 60.4% 54.4% 14
WSH@BUF 27.4 30.1 28.7 4 58.1% 65.0% 61.6% 6
SEA@MIN 29.4 28.7 29.0 5 55.6% 61.5% 58.5% 8
CAR@HOU 30.4 28.3 29.3 6 62.2% 46.6% 54.4% 13
CHI@CLE 28.2 30.8 29.5 7 51.8% 50.0% 50.9% 15
TB@LA 29.3 29.9 29.6 8 75.8% 54.7% 65.3% 4
LAC@KC 28.9 30.5 29.7 9 68.2% 65.6% 66.9% 1
ARI@JAC 30.3 30.0 30.1 10 64.0% 66.7% 65.3% 3
MIA@LV 29.1 31.3 30.2 11 62.1% 69.1% 65.6% 2
IND@TEN 31.5 30.9 31.2 12 55.7% 54.7% 55.2% 11
CIN@PIT 30.8 32.0 31.4 13 56.1% 67.9% 62.0% 5
GB@SF 32.9 31.2 32.1 14 56.0% 52.9% 54.5% 12
BAL@DET 32.7 31.8 32.2 15 47.0% 54.3% 50.6% 16
NYJ@DEN 31.9 34.2 33.1 16 48.1% 66.3% 57.2% 9