Sunday Night Football Betting: Will the Ravens Cover as Home Underdogs?
Our second Sunday Night Football contest features an outstanding battle between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens. We know an 0-2 start can be historically brutal to recover from. Can the Ravens knock off the Chiefs to avoid the dreaded 0-2 start?
Per FanDuel Sportsbook, Kansas City is a 3.5-point road favorite, and the total is a whopping 53.5 points.
Let's dive into what we think could be some interesting betting angles for this contest.
What to Watch For?
Our metrics have some interesting takeaways from the first week of play, especially with the Ravens, who took a loss in their opener.
Through one game, we rank Baltimore as a bottom-10 offense, drug down by a passing attack that was downright brutal, ranking fifth-worst. Lamar Jackson was solid early on in the game, but in a late-game meltdown, he lost two fumbles. He ended up passing for only 235 yards in the overtime loss to the Las Vegas Raiders.
On the flip side, the Chiefs seem to be, well, the Chiefs. While Clyde Edwards-Helaire still seems to be gaining his footing as an NFL running back (14 carries and 43 yards), the passing attack was the second-best in the league in Week 1, per our numbers, as Patrick Mahomes threw for 337 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tyreek Hill (15 targets) and Travis Kelce (7 targets) are clearly the top dogs in this aerial attack.
It will be interesting to see how both of these defensive units rebound this week. Each struggled in Week 1 and sits as a bottom-12 unit by our schedule-adjusted metrics. The Cleveland Browns' ground game had a lot of success in KC while Derek Carr spearheaded the Raiders' win with a huge day through the air against Baltimore.
Will one of these units rebound and step up this week? If so, that could decide the winner.
Bets to Consider
According to our numbers, this should be a super entertaining game, but the betting market is a tricky one.
We do think there is some value on the underdog Ravens. We project a Kansas City win by a score of 26.00-24.75, making the Ravens and the points a two-star bet.
There is a touch of value on the total. We project the under to win out 59.0% of the time. But that comes with a catch -- the over has hit in four of the last five Baltimore home contests.
In the player-prop market, I'm all over Tyreek Hill as the first touchdown scorer (+600). The Ravens' pass defense looked out of sorts in Week 1, and that's not what you want when you're coming up against Mahomes and company.
Historical Betting Trends
-- The Chiefs have absolutely dominated this series of late, winning each of the last four games.
-- Coffee is for closers, and the Chiefs are drinking piping hot java against the Ravens. They are 3-1 against the spread in this series.
-- The Chiefs are 10-1 straight up in their last 11 road games.
-- The Ravens have been an against-the-spread beat, going 7-2 in their last 9.