NFL Week 2 Power Rankings: How High Did the Saints Climb After a Convincing Win?
Everyone has his or her own set of NFL power rankings, but not all of them are computer-driven, algorithmically-derived approaches that look at underlying data to figure out true team strength.
But numberFire's power rankings do.
Using our nERD metric, which indicates the expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field, here is how our model ranks and rates all 32 teams after a week of games.
| Team | Record | Projected Record | nERD | nERD Rank | nERD Change | Rank Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 0-1 | 5.0-12.0 | -6.23 | 32 | -1.18 | -1 |
| Lions | 0-1 | 4.7-12.3 | -5.67 | 31 | -0.85 | -1 |
| Jets | 0-1 | 5.4-11.5 | -5.43 | 30 | -0.66 | -1 |
| Bears | 0-1 | 6.9-10.0 | -4.14 | 29 | -2.93 | -6 |
| Falcons | 0-1 | 5.9-11.0 | -3.43 | 28 | -2.54 | -7 |
| Giants | 0-1 | 5.6-11.3 | -3.41 | 27 | -1.74 | -2 |
| Raiders | 1-0 | 8.1-8.8 | -2.92 | 26 | 1.47 | 2 |
| Texans | 1-0 | 6.3-10.6 | -2.83 | 25 | 2.27 | 7 |
| Titans | 0-1 | 9.0-7.9 | -2.35 | 24 | -3.13 | -11 |
The Houston Texans (ranked 32nd entering the season) avoided a winless season by picking up a victory against the Jacksonville Jaguars (31st) behind a strong performance from Tyrod Taylor. Taylor ended up posting 0.47 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back -- which is numberFire's way of indicating how many points Taylor added to the scoreboard on a per-drop back basis. That was a top-seven rate in the league in Week 1. Their nERD climbed to pulse-having territory at -2.83.
The Las Vegas Raiders' overtime win over the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night got them to climb just two spots, but they are within shouting distance of the middle of the pack.
| Team | Record | Projected Record |
nERD | nERD Rank |
nERD Change |
Rank Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | 1-0 | 7.8-9.1 | -1.74 | 23 | 0.79 | 3 |
| Football Team | 0-1 | 6.6-10.4 | -1.19 | 22 | -1.36 | -4 |
| Packers | 0-1 | 9.5-7.4 | -0.90 | 21 | -4.62 | -16 |
| Broncos | 1-0 | 8.7-8.3 | -0.80 | 20 | 2.15 | 7 |
| Patriots | 0-1 | 7.6-9.4 | -0.77 | 19 | 0.23 | 3 |
| Colts | 0-1 | 7.5-9.4 | -0.64 | 18 | -1.37 | -3 |
| Vikings | 0-1 | 7.4-9.5 | -0.10 | 17 | -0.60 | 0 |
| Browns | 0-1 | 8.7-8.3 | -0.02 | 16 | -0.84 | -4 |
The Cincinnati Bengals, ranked 26th entering the season, scored an overtime upset over the Minnesota Vikings (previously ranked 17th). Rookie receiver Ja'Marr Chase asserted himself en route to a 101-yard outing. Their nERD changed by nearly a full point as a result.
The Green Bay Packers' fall was drastic, and they are now sitting outside the top 20 in nERD after a 35-point loss to the New Orleans Saints. No other team had a nERD drop of more than 3.15 points, and the Pack got dinged 4.62 from their nERD score.
| Team | Record | Projected Record |
nERD | nERD Rank |
nERD Change |
Rank Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 1-0 | 7.8-9.2 | 0.47 | 15 | 1.35 | 5 |
| Dolphins | 1-0 | 9.7-7.2 | 0.60 | 14 | -0.27 | -3 |
| Cowboys | 0-1 | 8.6-8.3 | 1.38 | 13 | 0.48 | -3 |
| Chargers | 1-0 | 9.6-7.4 | 1.39 | 12 | 1.23 | 7 |
| Eagles | 1-0 | 9.3-7.6 | 1.54 | 11 | 2.80 | 13 |
| Steelers | 1-0 | 9.6-7.3 | 1.75 | 10 | 1.05 | 6 |
| Bills | 0-1 | 10.2-6.8 | 2.25 | 8 | -1.59 | -4 |
| Seahawks | 1-0 | 10.0-7.0 | 2.25 | 8 | 1.04 | 1 |
| Ravens | 0-1 | 9.2-7.8 | 2.78 | 7 | -1.56 | -4 |
The Philadelphia Eagles surprised in Week 1 and raised their nERD from -1.26 to 1.54 by throttling the Atlanta Falcons by 26 points, earning an underdog victory in the process. Jalen Hurts managed 0.37 Passing NEP per drop back to rank eighth-best among all quarterbacks. Even adjusting for the Falcons' offense, he was a top-eight performer. Their nERD shift was third-largest, and their rank change of 13 was the biggest after Week 1.
Despite a win against the Buffalo Bills and a climb in the power rankings, the Pittsburgh Steelers were not the most dominant offense by any means in Week 1. Ben Roethlisberger mustered a low 5.7-yard average target depth and completed just 18 of 32 passes while netting a Passing NEP per drop back of just 0.01. The strong defensive showing got the Steelers up to 10th from 16th.
| Team | Record | Projected Record |
nERD | nERD Rank |
nERD Change |
Rank Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 1-0 | 10.7-6.3 | 3.19 | 6 | 1.06 | 2 |
| Buccaneers | 1-0 | 11.9-5.0 | 3.36 | 5 | -1.24 | -4 |
| Cardinals | 1-0 | 9.5-7.4 | 3.72 | 4 | 2.95 | 10 |
| Chiefs | 1-0 | 12.3-4.6 | 4.56 | 3 | -0.01 | -1 |
| Rams | 1-0 | 11.2-5.8 | 5.83 | 2 | 2.55 | 4 |
| Saints | 1-0 | 11.0-6.0 | 6.80 | 1 | 3.78 | 6 |
The Los Angeles Rams' convincing Sunday night win led to a shift of 2.55 nERD points. They also climbed four spots in our power rankings, but they are not the team to feature this week.
Jameis Winston and the New Orleans Saints demolished the Green Bay Packers at a neutral site. Winston tallied 5 touchdown passes and wound up leading the week in Passing NEP. No team had a greater point differential (35), and expected to have just 35% win odds based on the moneyline, their win was a surprise, and so we really should be taking note of their performance. Their separation from the Pack helped them separate from the pack to get the number-one billing after Week 1.
