NFL

Sunday Night Football Betting: Will the Favored Rams Cover Against the Bears?

Our first Sunday Night Football contest features the Los Angeles Rams and Chicago Bears, who met in Week 7 of last year. While that game was a 24-10 Rams victory, with two new signal-callers under center, this one could play out much differently.

Let's dive into what we think could be some interesting betting angles for this contest.

Two New-Look Offenses

Both of these offenses are something of a wild card going into 2021. Our metrics aren't all that high on either attack, as we have Chicago as the fourth-worst offense while LA sits squarely in the middle of the pack. There's definitely more reason for optimism with the Rams.

Matthew Stafford, thanks to an offseason trade, is the new quarterback for the Rams. The gunslinging Stafford will be front and center, and he will definitely need to step up Cam Akers was lost to an injury before the season even began. The quarterback threw for more than 4,000 yards a season ago, and he has passed for more than 45,000 yards in his career.

On the flip side, Andy Dalton will lead the Chicago Bears. But he is likely just keeping the seat warm for rookie sensation Justin Fields. Bell-cow back David Montgomery should be quite busy for Chicago. The all-purpose back racked up more than 100 total all-purpose yards in each of the last six games of 2020.

Our numbers like both of these defenses, ranking the Rams first and Chicago ninth.

In terms of pace? Try to keep your bathroom breaks to a minimum. Looking at data from last season, both teams ranked inside of the top-12 in situation-neutral pace.

Bets to Consider

The betting public heavily sides with the home Rams, according to our oddsFire tool. A very nice 69% of all bets and cash is coming in on the Rams to cover, which isn't surprising with the Rams having the home-field advantage -- coupled with an iffy quarterback situation in Chicago.

Our algorithm loves the home team, projecting them to win the contest a whopping 75.46% of the time. But thanks to some heavy juice (-375), we have the moneyline as only a two-star bet.

For a prop bet to target, peep over 13.5 carries and over 3.5 receptions for Montgomery. There isn't much standing in the way of Montgomery being a beast from a volume perspective, and if Chicago is playing catchup, he can rack up targets with Tarik Cohen out.

Historical Betting Trends

-- The under has been the move when these two teams meet. In the last eight contests between the two, it's hit six times.
-- The Rams seem to like playing in their friendly confines as they are 8-2 straight-up in their last 10 games.
-- The Bears are only 2-4 against the spread in their last six roadies.