Daily Fantasy Football Floor and Ceiling Projections: Week 1

Fantasy football is a volatile game.

Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.

It happens. A lot.

And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.

That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.

Table Terms

FanDuel Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Median FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value: Projected median FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct: The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct: The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 2.75x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.

Quarterback

Simulation Results

Observations:
Patrick Mahomes ($8,800), Josh Allen ($8,100), and Kyler Murray ($8,400) all rate out with median projections above 20.0 FanDuel points but will require at least $8,000 in FanDuel salary. However, they are in their own tier in floor/ceiling combo (boom/bust ratio) with elite odds of getting to 25.0 or more FanDuel points.

But Jalen Hurts ($7,600), Russell Wilson ($7,800), and Ryan Tannehill ($7,700) are the clear next tier. All have some level of rushing to raise floor and ceiling and find themselves in advantageous situations overall.

While we can dig deeper and look for passers under $7,000 this week, value at running back helps us allocate more to the quarterbacks with easier paths to slate-altering performances. Mahomes, Murray, Tannehill, and Hurts are my clear top four for the week.

Running Back

Simulation Results

Observations:
Christian McCaffrey ($10,400) is back, and so is his massive salary. We've got value at the position, but even with that, it's hard to consider CMC a full-on primary play compared to the tier right below him: Dalvin Cook ($9,400), Alvin Kamara ($8,600), and Derrick Henry ($8,900). Their boom/bust ratios are otherworldly relative to the rest of the position -- even at the high salaries.

I like Najee Harris ($6,500) at a reasonable salary. He projects to have a solid receiving role even as an underdog, which helps his high-end output climb. Only James Robinson ($5,900) and Kamara have better value projections.

Chasing committees can occasionally pay off; however, focusing on feature backs is always the easiest path to upside and floor for rushers, so we may not need to dig 10 players deep for our running back pool.

Wide Receiver

Simulation Results

Observations:
The top eight receivers -- Tyreek Hill ($8,500), Davante Adams ($8,600), Calvin Ridley ($8,100), Stefon Diggs ($7,900), A.J. Brown ($7,800), DeAndre Hopkins ($8,200), Justin Jefferson ($8,000), and D.K. Metcalf ($7,700) -- are all in their own tier, and picking just one is hard.

If pressed, I'd go with Ridley due to the highest projected target total in my model and a plush matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles, but we shouldn't ignore the elite receivers this week in favor of all the running backs.

The top receivers with salaries of $6,500 or lower look to be Tee Higgins ($6,000), Jerry Jeudy ($5,500), Odell Beckham ($6,500), Corey Davis ($5,800), and Chase Claypool ($6,000). Jeudy's game environment is quite bleak, but his high average depth of target injects plenty of variance into his projection.

Tight End

Simulation Results

Observations:
This is always the Travis Kelce ($8,500) section because he gets wide receiver treatment from Mahomes.

George Kittle ($7,000), healthy again, is pretty much the second tier by himself followed by a distant third: Kyle Pitts ($6,000).

The statistical case for any other tight ends to put up huge games will be rare, which is why the elite deserve to be in their own salary tiers.