NFL Betting Guide: Week 1
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs -5.5: 2-Star Rating out of 5
Chiefs Moneyline (-255): 2-Star Rating out of 5
The Kansas City Chiefs come into the 2021 season with a chip on their shoulder. They looked like the 2019 Super Bowl champions for most of last season, until they met up with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who exposed KC's weaknesses in their offensive line en route to a 31-9 thrashing in the Super Bowl.
Kansas City's front office responded in a big way during the offseason, making a flurry of moves to shore up that major deficiency, adding Orlando Brown, Joe Thuney, and Kyle Long. The result is an offensive line that is ranked as the seventh-best unit in the league, per PFF.
The Chiefs will host the Cleveland Browns, who come into this week's game as 5.5-point underdogs. Week 1 has not been favorable for the Browns in recent history; they have not won a Week 1 game since 2004. Even last year's Browns team -- the first to make the playoffs since 2002 -- was unable to tame Week 1, getting walloped 38-6 by the Baltimore Ravens.
KC is on a six-game Week 1 winning streak, winning by at least 6 points and an average of 11.0 points during that span. They are on a four-game winning streak against the Browns, including last year's five-point win in the postseason.
Our model likes the Chiefs and Browns to continue their respective Week 1 streaks. We give the Chiefs a 76.3% chance of winning and a 59.6% chance of covering the 5.5-point spread. The -255 moneyline implies odds of 71.8%. We mark both bets as two-star plays.
New York Jets at Carolina Panthers
Panthers -3.5: 1-Star Rating out of 5
Panthers Moneyline (-198): 1-Star Rating out of 5
Both the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers will have new starters under center this week as they face off against each other in Bank of America Stadium. Rookie Zach Wilson will start for the Jets, while former Jet Sam Darnold will be at the helm for the Panthers, who come into the matchup as 3.5-point favorites.
The Jets are projected by our numbers as the 6th-worst defense against the pass and 10th-worst overall. Part of that is driven by their inability to stop receiving backs. They gave up 98 receptions to running backs in 2020, the second-most of any team and a number that does not bode well for them as they face Christian McCaffrey.
New York was just 1-7 straight up (SU) and 2-6 against the spread (ATS) as an away team last year. They've dropped three of their last four to the Panthers. In the past five years, they've gone 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in September games as road underdogs of three or more points.
numberFire projects the Jets' recent September woes to continue. We give the Panthers a 69.8% chance of walking away with a victory and a 56.6% chance of covering the spread. Both bets are one-star wagers.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Over 45.5 (-110): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Like the Jets and Panthers, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans will also be starting new quarterbacks to begin 2021. Trevor Lawrence, who was taken number-one overall in this year's draft, will be under center for the Jaguars as they look to start off the Urban Meyer era with a win. The other side of the field will be headed by journeyman Tyrod Taylor, who is playing for his fifth team.
The name of the game this week may be defense -- or the lack of it rather. The Jags and Texans were two of the worst defenses in 2020, giving up the second- and sixth-most points per game, respectively. It is, thus, hardly a surprise to see the two near the bottom of numberFire's defensive rankings to start the year. The Jags are ranked as the sixth-worst D by our metrics. The Texans? Dead last.
Opponents scored an average of 29.6 points against the Texans at NRG Stadium in 2020. Only one of those games saw fewer than 45.5 combined points scored.
Our model projects the teams to combine for 49.1 points this week. We give the over a 59.5% chance of hitting and rate the bet as a two-star play.
