NFL

NFL Week 1 Power Rankings: Dak Prescott Is Back, and So Are the Cowboys' Playoff Hopes

Brandon Gdula  —  @gdula13 Sep 3rd, 2021

Everyone has his or her own set of NFL power rankings, but not all of them are computer-driven, algorithmically-derived approaches that look at underlying data to figure out true team strength.

But numberFire's power rankings do.

Using our nERD metric, which indicates expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field, here is how our model initially ranks all 32 teams entering the 2021 season.

We can expect some instant updates after Week 1 concludes, but here's the first look at the 2021 NFL season.

The Heavy Underdogs

These squads rate out with a nERD score of -4.39 or worse, suggesting they'd be laying at least a field goal against an average team at a neutral site.

Team Projected
Record 		nERD nERD
Rank 		Playoff
Odds 		Division
Odds 		Super Bowl
Odds 		xWins Next
3 Games
Texans 5.9-11 -5.10 32 17.0% 11.6% 0.3% 1.2
Jaguars 6.0-10.9 -5.05 31 17.0% 9.1% 0.2% 1.3
Lions 5.7-11.3 -4.82 30 10.7% 6.2% 0.3% 0.8
Jets 6.4-10.6 -4.77 29 19.0% 6.0% 0.1% 1.2
Raiders 6.1-10.9 -4.39 28 15.8% 5.2% 0.4% 0.9


Only one of the bottom five -- the Houston Texans -- have double-digit odds to win their division, but no team is even 0.5% likely to win the Super Bowl in 2021. That's not surprising.

Of the five, though, the Jacksonville Jaguars could surprise. Using nERD and home field expectations, they could be battling for a 2-1 record through three weeks. They play the Texans on the road and then host the Denver Broncos (30th in nERD) and then the Arizona Cardinals (14th). Notably, they also get the Cincinnati Bengals (26th) in Week 4 on the road, but that's outside the short-term look-ahead.

The Other Subpar Squads

These teams are a cut above the bottom five but begin the season with a negative nERD score.

Team Projected
Record 		nERD nERD
Rank 		Playoff
Odds 		Division
Odds 		Super Bowl
Odds 		xWins Next
3 Games
Bengals 7.2-9.8 -2.53 26 26.3% 8.5% 0.8% 1.2
Giants 7.4-9.6 -1.67 25 29.2% 17.1% 0.9% 1.5
Eagles 7.9-9.1 -1.26 24 34.4% 21.8% 1.3% 1.3
Bears 7.4-9.5 -1.21 23 27.4% 16.1% 1.2% 1.3
Patriots 8-8.9.0 -1.00 22 36.6% 16.5% 2.2% 1.5
Falcons 7.7-9.2 -0.89 21 31.4% 11.0% 1.2% 1.3
Panthers 7.7-9.3 -0.88 20 30.4% 11.6% 1.1% 1.7


The closest team we have to a .500 squad here is the New England Patriots, who project for 8.8 wins this season and tier-best 36.6% playoff chances. The team's decision to cut Cam Newton and start Mac Jones will be met with a potentially rocky start, however. They host the Miami Dolphins (11th), travel to face the New York Jets (29th), and then host the New Orleans Saints (7th) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1st).

The Slight Favorites

These teams have nERD scores between 0.00 and 3.00.

Team Projected
Record 		nERD nERD
Rank 		Playoff
Odds 		Division
Odds 		Super Bowl
Odds 		xWins Next
3 Games
Chargers 9.0-8.0 0.16 19 50.4% 22.9% 2.2% 1.3
Football Team 8.1-8.8 0.17 18 38.1% 25.0% 1.9% 1.5
Vikings 8.6-8.3 0.50 17 43.6% 28.1% 3.3% 1.5
Steelers 8.7-8.2 0.70 16 44.7% 19.1% 2.4% 1.7
Colts 9.2-7.8 0.73 15 57.3% 41.1% 2.8% 1.4
Cardinals 8.7-8.3 0.77 14 43.6% 19.1% 2.8% 1.6
Titans 9-7.9.0 0.78 13 54.9% 38.2% 3.3% 1.5
Browns 9-7.90 0.82 12 51.2% 20.5% 2.3% 1.7
Dolphins 9.4-7.6 0.87 11 56.1% 30.5% 3.2% 1.6
Cowboys 9.0-8.0 0.90 10 50.6% 36.1% 3.0% 1.4
Seahawks 8.8-8.1 1.21 9 45.3% 20.2% 2.8% 1.5
49ers 9.5-7.4 2.13 8 52.4% 25.5% 4.4% 1.7


This tier features 12 teams, and 10 of them have nERD scores between 0.00 and 0.90. We can expect plenty of shifting once we get a game played.

On the fringe of that tier are the Dallas Cowboys, who expect to have Dak Prescott back under center for Week 1. Through four healthy games last year, Prescott led the NFL in completions (137) and passing yards (1,690) and ranked sixth in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP).

Just ahead of Dallas sits an NFC West duo: the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers.

They face off in Week 4 -- in San Francisco -- but prior to that, Seattle faces teams ranked 13th to 17th (at the Indianapolis Colts [15th], versus the Tennessee Titans [13th], and at the Minnesota Vikings [17th]).

The 49ers have two very winnable games -- at the Detroit Lions (30th) and at the Philadelphia Eagles (24th) -- before hosting the Green Bay Packers (5th) and then the Seahawks. San Francisco is one of five teams to rank top-13 in both adjusted offense and defense entering the season. The other four are all top-five squads.

The Best of the Best

Team Projected
Record 		nERD nERD
Rank 		Playoff
Odds 		Division
Odds 		Super Bowl
Odds 		xWins Next
3 Games
Saints 10-6.9 3.02 7 62.1% 33.2% 6.3% 1.7
Rams 10-6.9 3.28 6 62.4% 35.2% 6.8% 1.7
Packers 10-6.9 3.72 5 65.4% 49.6% 7.2% 1.8
Bills 10.6-6.3 3.84 4 73.2% 47.0% 7.7% 1.9
Ravens 10.9-6 4.34 3 73.9% 51.9% 8.7% 2.0
Chiefs 11.1-5.8 4.57 2 78.9% 60.6% 10.9% 1.8
Buccaneers 10.7-6.3 4.60 1 73.0% 44.2% 7.5% 1.9


The best of the best primarily come from the AFC with three of the top four coming from that side of the league. However, if we were to pan out and look at the top 10, then we have 7 squads from the NFC side representing.

The more difficult path to the championship, then, belongs to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers rather than the Kansas City Chiefs, and that's reflected in each team's Super Bowl odds.

One team that is likely quite dangerous early are the Baltimore Ravens, who rank third in our power rankings overall and are second in Super Bowl odds (again, they're in the AFC).

Baltimore starts the season at the Las Vegas Raiders (28th), versus the Chiefs (2nd), and then at the Lions (30th). That lops off a road matchup against the Broncos (27th), too. So yes, they face the Chiefs and have three road games in their first four, but they get the Chiefs at home and some cake matchups away from Baltimore.