NFL
Why the Packers Need to Extend Randall Cobb's Contract Right Now
Randall Cobb has had a breakout season and dominates the slot. What is that worth to the Packers?

Anyone who manages a budget either for their work, their family, their fantasy football auction-based roster, or for their DFS games knows that it is difficult work. Not only do you have to stay within the confines of your budget, but also you have to maximize value within your parameters and project where your biggest needs are as an organization, a family, or a football guru.

In the NFL, this budget management process comes in the form of the NFL salary cap and the decisions and trade-offs a General Manager must make to give their team the best shot at winning the Super Bowl every year (well, unless you are the Raiders). The 2014 NFL salary cap is $133.0 million, but multiple reports expect that figure to go up to $138.6 million.

Perhaps no General Manager has a tougher decision to make on his hands this offseason than the Green Bay Packers' Ted Thompson, who must decide whether to extend slot wide receiver Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

According to that data, Cobb has run a league-leading 448 routes out of the slot out of 511 routes, or 87.7% of his routes. Cobb is basically the "Ivan Drago" of the slot, because whatever he hits, he destroys as he ranks first in slot targets (91), slot receptions (63), slot receiving yards (889) and slot touchdowns (all of his 10) by a comfortable margin.

Additionally, his yards per route run of 1.98 ranks fifth among the peer group researched, which shows how much value he adds in his targets as well as how much he's trusted in the Packers offense. Those above Cobb in yards per route run in the slot are names of players who cameo in the slot, such as Spotrac.com.

Cobb's statistics certainly put him in that company production-wise. However, with the realization that players such as Gronkowski are assets in blocking for the run game and present more of a vertical threat and physical nightmare matchup than Cobb, the tight end contract values listed above are simply out of the realistic range Cobb could expect on the open market. Additionally, his teammate Nelson's four-year, $39.1 million contract with $11.5 million in guaranteed money probably represents the ceiling of the range that Cobb could expect from the Packers because Nelson has won a Super Bowl with Rodgers, is his favorite target and a vertical threat as well.

From the list above, the best comparable based on recent history is probably Packers 2015 salary cap and knowing that the Packers would like to bring Cobb back, it seems that Cobb will be back as a Packer next year. After all, Thompson does have a tendency to try to keep in house talent while they are in their prime.

With an expected minimum salary cap of $138.6 million, the Packers currently have $16.8 million in available cap space to sign their own players, draft picks, and other free agents in 2015. For perspective, NFL contracts have a tendency to be backloaded for cap purposes with the signing bonuses being prorated over the years of the contract (guaranteed money). For instance, Nelson only counts $4.6 million against the Packers cap in 2015. So there is definitely money available to re-sign Cobb even before free agency hits.

While the team could use some help at the cornerback position, which was apparent after watching Julio Jones destroy the Packers secondary on Monday Night Football, and re-signing right tackle Bryan Bulaga is also a high priority, the Packers don't figure to bring back several of their wrong-side-of-30-years-old defensive backs and could address that need in the draft. So, it seems that in Rodgers' prime, Cobb is their top priority in free agency as he already has the much needed chemistry with and trust of the team's franchise quarterback. The franchise tag is available as well for Cobb, but the team would figure to get something done before using that as Cobb is not an outside receiver and the club would not want to pay him like one.

So when it comes to budgeting, it seems like the Packers have the budget (salary cap) and desire to bring the best slot option in the league in Cobb back. Staying as a Packer would also keep Cobb's value as one of the top dynasty league wide receivers high without having to fear the worst of a potential image of Cobb in a Raiders or Chiefs uniform this offseason.

Make it happen already, Ted.

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