​NFC North Division Betting Preview: Is There Any Value on the Favored Packers?

It’s been a weird offseason all around, but particularly so for anyone watching the teams of the NFC North.

At one point, the Green Bay Packers were going to let their three-time MVP quarterback watch them play from the comfort of his couch. For a while, the Minnesota Vikings were going to have an offense helmed by whatever a “Case Cookus” is -- if they could avoid a forfeit caused by a COVID-19 outbreak. The new Detroit Lions head coach caught his 15 seconds of fame for saying he wanted his team to “bite kneecaps off” the other teams they play.

And, of course, the Chicago Bears are somehow trying to trick us all into the farce that they can win with Andy Dalton under center.

This constant turmoil in the division has kept NFC North betting futures off the board for many books for much of the offseason. Now, though, with Aaron Rodgers locked into another season with Green Bay, FanDuel Sportsbook has odds on each team’s chances of winning the division title in 2021.

Which team has the best chance to win this turbulent division, and which ones will provide the best value for your bets? Let's take a look at each squad.

Green Bay Packers

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: -145
nF Division Winner Probability: 49.6%

The Packers convincingly won this division in 2020, going 13-3 with the most potent scoring offense in the NFL (31.8 points per game) and the second-most efficient offense on a per-play basis (6.3 yards per team play). They allowed the 13th-fewest points (23.1 points per game) and were solidly average in yardage allowed per play, as well (5.5 yards per team play). More importantly for our purposes, Green Bay’s 2020 offense turned in 0.23 schedule-adjusted Net Expected Points (NEP) per play -- the sixth-best mark in the numberFire NEP era, which dates back to 2000.

While Green Bay looked for a while like they would be without the services of 2020 MVP winner and quarterback Aaron Rodgers, he is back and ready to roll. In fact, the Packers have not really lost much starting talent on the offensive side, which bodes well for their chances of keeping in the hunt in 2021. With a 2021 strength of schedule that ranks 17th, per Sharp Football, the Packers are poised to repeat their spot atop the NFC North. The real question is whether the 59.2% implied probability via their FanDuel Sportsbook odds is worth taking the risk on.

Minnesota Vikings

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +250
nF Division Winner Probability: 28.1%

Always the bridesmaid but never the bride -- am I right, Vikings fans? The Vikes have done so much in recent years to push in and challenge their neighbor-state rival Packers, but it hasn’t always panned out.

This year, in particular, they made some outstanding signings and draft picks -- inking cornerback Patrick Peterson, safety Xavier Woods and defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson. Unfortunately, first-round pick and offensive tackle Christian Darrisaw is struggling with a core muscle injury and hasn’t been able to get up to speed in training camp. One bright spot is a strength of schedule that ranks just 18th, so they won’t have to sled much more uphill than their divisional rivals in Wisconsin.

Minnesota has done a lot to sustain its competitive window in 2021, but it seems they’ll need the Packers to falter to take the NFC North crown from Green Bay. Their fourth-worst scoring defense (29.7 points per game) and fifth-least efficient yardage defense (6.1 yards per play) from 2020 should improve this year, but the question remains whether even an average defense and slightly above-average offense will be enough to get them over the hump. Remember, too: this defense was one of the 20 worst in NFL history last year according to adjusted Defensive NEP per play, so “average” is asking a lot.

Chicago Bears

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +500
nF Division Winner Probability: 16.1%

Whenever a team comes into Week 1 preparation announcing one player as the starting quarterback, while the fans (and some teammates) clamor for another, that’s a rough sign to me.

Whether it’s Andy Dalton or Justin Fields (or even Nick Foles) who get the first snaps under center for the 2021 Bears, this is a team with a personality disorder. The Bears seem to want to compete, hanging on to star players like wide receiver Allen Robinson and Khalil Mack, while signing the likes of Dalton and running back Damien Williams. However, they have inexplicably not addressed the massive holes in the wide receiver corps and along the offensive line that could be fatal flaws.

Chicago had one of the better defenses in the league in 2020, ranking eighth in adjusted Defensive NEP per play, but it was their sixth-worst offense -- by adjusted NEP per play -- that sunk them to a paltry 8-8. Without marked improvement in offensive efficiency, the Bears will likely languish in the bottom half of the NFC North again. A sixth-hardest strength of schedule will also do them no favors in the 2021 divisional race.

Detroit Lions

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +1900
nF Division Winner Probability: 6.2%

There’s not a lot to say here to explore the Lions’ chances of winning the 2021 NFC North, so instead, I want to take a moment and ask: what really is Detroit-style pizza? I don’t know, but I’d like to try it sometime. On a spectrum of wide-base Chicago-style deep dish to thin-crust New York-style slices, where does it fall? Or is it more of a toppings and spices kind of thing? Anyway.

The 2020 Lions are coming off a year where their offense was ninth-worst by adjusted NEP per play, and their defense was the absolute worst of any team ever (0.23 adjusted Defensive NEP per play). They traded away (Matthew Stafford) and let walk (Kenny Golladay) two of the few bright spots from their passing offense, replacing them with Jared Goff, Tyrell Williams, and Breshad Perriman.

The question for Detroit in 2021 isn’t “can they win the NFC North” or “will they make the playoffs”, but rather “can their offense also become the worst ever”? A strength of schedule that falls in at seventh-hardest will help them to that goal.

The Pick

When looking at a futures bet, it can help to use some sort of odds converter -- we have one! -- to determine what a set of odds is suggesting to us about the likelihood of each bet. When we have this likelihood, known as “implied odds," we can compare it to the probabilities that numberFire’s model puts out and see what the most profitable bets will likely be.

The table below shows each line’s implied probability and its value when compared to the probabilities generated by our model.

Every bet on the board here looks like a negative value -- outside of the Detroit Lions +1900, which we can rule out as essentially wishing on a coin in a well. With so many eyes on the NFC North this offseason, it’s no surprise this is a tight betting market.

If we adjust to toss out the six percent of probability spent on the Lions, the Vikings and Bears do come in with slight positive value on their lines -- Minnesota a shade more so than Chicago.

It might seem a bit square, but I do think -145 is still good value for the presumptive favorite Packers in a very sharp market. If you wanted to take a plus-money longer shot, the Vikings make the most sense to me and seem to carry the most pure betting value in their current +250 line.