Fantasy Football: One Running Back to Target in Each Round of Your Draft

Every summer I tell myself I'm not that excited for fantasy football, and every year I know those aren't my true feelings.

I think I'm lying to myself and suppressing how I really feel, so I won't randomly start a conversation with my wife in June about (spoiler) Gus Edwards' ADP being too low. Or maybe I just can't do it year-round any longer. I'm 36 now. Gotta pick my spots.

Whatever the reason, by the time it's mid-August, I'm all in on fantasy football, and I can't get enough.

Whether you're a degenerate looking to put the final touches on a summer of prep or someone cramming in the final minutes before a draft (props to you for having a life), we have tools that can help you win your league -- things like player news updates, our fully customizable draft kit, player-specific pieces and articles on guys to avoid.

Hopefully, this piece can be another spoke in the wheel.

This close to the start of the regular season, ADP data has pretty well sorted itself out. While every draft is its own entity, we can fairly accurately predict which players will be available at various points throughout the draft. That information is invaluable. It can keep you from reaching for a player when chances are he’ll be available on your next turn, and it can also help you stay grounded if your league's draft gets weird.

Using half-PPR ADP from FantasyPros, let’s look at a running back in each of the first 10 rounds who is worth targeting. Obviously, you won’t be drafting a running back with every pick, but it helps to know who is typically available in each round and which of them you should zero in on.

Round 1 -- Christian McCaffrey, Panthers

ADP: 1st overall (RB1; 1.01)

Peeps are getting their RB1 ASAP this year. There are nine running backs with an ADP in Round 1, and they're actually the first nine picks.

I tried to talk myself out of going with Christian McCaffrey here, and while I'm pretty high on Ezekiel Elliott, if I can have anyone, I want CMC. Dude is a monster.

We didn't get to see much of McCaffrey in 2020, but what we did see was special. In three games, McCaffrey averaged 27.3 half-PPR points per game. That clip almost surely would've come down if he played more games, but CMC is just on another level when he's healthy. In 2019, he put up 25.8 half-PPR points per game, which was 6.8 more than any other running back.

Who knows if Sam Darnold will elevate the Carolina Panthers' offense, but we've seen CMC produce with Kyle Allen and Teddy Bridgewater, so he should be able to do work with Darnold.

Our projections place McCaffrey in his own tier. We project him for 380.1 points, 41.1 more than Dalvin Cook, our half-PPR RB2. In fact, we have just two players -- Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen -- scoring more points than CMC.

If McCaffrey is available when you're on the clock, take him.

Round 2 -- Austin Ekeler, Chargers

ADP: 13th overall (RB10; 2.01)

Two picks in, and I've gone with the first pick -- by ADP -- in each round. This is the high-level stuff you came for.

Like CMC, Austin Ekeler was banged up last year. Unlike McCaffrey, Ekeler wasn't lights out when he did play, checking in as just the half-PPR RB15 in points per game (13.8).

Ekeler's usage was pretty dang good, though, as he averaged 18.6 touches -- including 5.8 catches -- and a bit more than 100 total yards in the nine full games he did play (not counting Week 4, when he exited early). The big issue was a lack of touchdowns, which isn't shocking given Ekeler's size, but even with that, to score only 3 touchdowns on 170 touches is at least some bad luck.

And if we look at what Ekeler did once he came back from injury last year (Week 12 on), it's easy to get excited. In that span, Ekeler showed a great rapport with Justin Herbert and racked up 16, 9, 9, 4, 3, and 7 targets over the final six games. Herbert had a propensity for throwing to backs even when Ekeler was out, as the Los Angeles Chargers targeted running backs on 25.5% of their passes in 2020, the fourth-highest clip.

One of the teams that peppered running backs with a higher target share last year was the New Orleans Saints (28.8%), which is where new Bolts offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi spent the majority of his career before coming to LA. Lombardi has said Ekeler owns a similar skillset to Alvin Kamara and Darren Sproles.

A full season of Ekeler -- who was the half-PPR RB7 in 2019, averaging 16.4 points per game -- and Herbert should be dope, and our model projects Ekeler as the half-PPR RB8, ahead of two backs (Nick Chubb and Jonathan Taylor) who are going in Round 1.

Round 3 -- Chris Carson, Seahawks

ADP: 31st overall (RB18; 3.07)

Chris Carson should once again carry the mail for a Seattle Seahawks offense that has been amongst the league's most run-heavy in recent years. We know what Carson can do -- he was the half-PPR RB11 in 2019 and the RB14 by points per game last season, when he missed four contests.

We have Carson finishing right in that range once again, listing him as our RB15.

In addition to what should be rock-solid volume on the ground (278 rushes, per our numbers), Carson has improved as a pass-catcher, making a career-best 3.1 grabs per game last year. That's now two straight seasons in which he's set a new career-high in receptions per game, and our numbers have hauling in a career-best 45 balls in 2021.

And if we finally get a full season of Russell Wilson cooking -- maybe new offensive coordinator in Shane Waldron calls more passes -- that won't necessarily be a bad thing for Carson, who could benefit from a more efficient offense as well as more trips to the red zone. The top-shelf upside isn't there, but the floor is very sturdy.

Round 4 -- Kareem Hunt, Browns

ADP: 47th overall (RB21; 4.11)

The way ADP stands right now, there are just two backs going in the fourth round -- Kareem Hunt and Myles Gaskin.

Admittedly, I don't love Hunt -- and our model doesn't either, ranking him as the RB27 -- but I like him a lot more than I do Gaskin. Going with Hunt is a pretty easy choice for me, and my money is on Gaskin's ADP sliding out of this round sooner rather than later with consistent chatter about a three-man committee in the Miami Dolphins' backfield.

Hunt is best suited for PPR and half-PPR leagues. He was the overall RB10 in half-PPR last year, aided by Chubb missing four games.

That's not to say Hunt wasn't productive when Chubb suited up. He was. Hunt had at least 10 carries and saw a snap rate of at least 40% in 9 of the 12 games in which Chubb played. There's room for both guys in a Cleveland Browns offense that was the fourth-most run-heavy attack in 2020.

Round 5 -- Darrell Henderson, Rams

ADP: 50th overall (RB23; 5.02)

Darrell Henderson's outlook massively improved when Cam Akers was lost for the year. Previously slated for a backup role, Henderson is now going into the campaign as the lead back for what should be a top-notch offense with Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford at the controls.

Jake Funk and Xavier Jones have generated some buzz since Akers went down, but the Los Angeles Rams are reportedly "all in" on Henderson.

In Round 5, any lead back will have at least some appeal. A lead back in a good offense who isn't a zero in the passing game is easy to get behind when he's coming off the board after the early rounds.

What will Henderson do in said lead role? Time will tell. But going by our algorithm, he's a solid value, as he checks in as the RB21 in our projections. Unless he just faceplants, Henderson should be a sound pick at this point in the draft.

Round 6 -- Travis Etienne, Jaguars

ADP: 61st overall (RB26; 6.01)

In recent history, running backs who go in the first round of the draft tend get the rock quite a bit as rookies. Per our JJ Zachariason, across the last 10 seasons, the 14 running backs who went in the first round averaged 206 rush attempts and 47 targets in their rookie seasons.

Now, Travis Etienne's situation may not be as cut and dry. He landed with a team that already possesses a really good back, James Robinson. But the Jacksonville Jaguars probably (or should I say, hopefully) didn't burn a first-rounder on Etienne to make him a bit-part player.

At a minimum, Etienne should see the field a lot right away in the passing game. He registered 38 and 47 catches over his final two college seasons, and the connection with former Clemson teammate Trevor Lawrence should be there from the get-go. That makes Etienne a valuable commodity in half-PPR and PPR formats.

There's also room for more in a Jags offense that could surprise in 2021. We have Etienne as our RB23.

Round 7 -- Damien Harris, Patriots

ADP: 74th overall (RB31; 7.02)

I'll get this out of the way early -- I'm not all that enamored with Damien Harris. The seventh round is kind of a dead zone for me. Not only do I not like any of the other running backs (Melvin Gordon, Leonard Fournette, Michael Carter, and David Johnson), I don't fancy any of the players in this range other than Tee Higgins.

But someone (me) decided to make me select a running back in each round, so I'm going with Harris.

There are some positives with him.

It looks like he's going to be the top back on the New England Patriots, and it's a Pats offense that spent a lot of money in free agency on pass-game weapons after falling woefully short in that department a year ago. Despite that investment, New England may try to win by running the ball and leaning on a defense that should be a lot better than it was in 2020 after getting back some key cogs who missed all of last season.

Harris is a better bet in standard formats, as he got all of seven targets in 10 games last season. With that said, he's our half-PPR RB29, so he's a fine flex running back. His lack of pass-game usage caps his ceiling and lowers his floor, but it's Round 7. The players who come without usage concerns are long gone.

Round 8 -- Trey Sermon, 49ers

ADP: 90th overall (RB36; 8.06)

I am into both of the running backs being selected in Round 8 -- Trey Sermon and Zack Moss.

Going by our model, each player is a quality value. We rank Sermon as the half-PPR RB30 and have Moss -- who is being chosen as the RB37 -- as the RB32. Again, I would gladly take either of them, but of the two, I'll side with Sermon.

My reasoning is mostly upside. The San Francisco 49ers could get back to being an upper-level offense this year. Whether that's via a healthy and improved Jimmy Garoppolo or rookie Trey Lance, we'll have to see, but two years ago, this San Fran offense ran it down people's throats. If Sermon finds his way to a lead role, he could crush his ADP.

That's definitely a big if, though, and our algorithm has him (171 carries) and Raheem Mostert (168 carries) at nearly an even split of the ground game. That's probably the safe bet. If you think Moss has a better shot at a workhorse gig, you won't hear much of an argument from me.

I really like both guys and want to leave drafts with at least one of them.

Round 9 -- A.J. Dillon, Packers

ADP: 98th overall (RB38; 9.02)

A.J. Dillon is 6-foot, 247 pounds. He ran a 4.53 40-yard dash and sits in the 97th percentile in Burst Score and Speed Score, per PlayerProfiler. In his one game of more than five carries in his rookie season, Dillon went for 124 yards and 2 tuds. He's going to see some decent volume this year in one of the league's best offenses.

Let's not make this super hard.

Yes, the return of Aaron Jones tossed cold water on talk of a Dillion Year 2 breakout. He's still going to be a factor, though, because the Green Bay Packers have always been careful with Jones, never giving him more than 14.8 rushing attempts per game in a season.

Jamaal Williams got 10.7 touches (8.5 rushes) per game last season, and while I'm not sure Dillon walks into Williams' role -- especially in passing situations -- Dillon should flirt with some standalone flex value during bye weeks and profiles as a guy who could be a wrecking ball near the goal-line. Plus, if Jones missed time this year, Dillon would likely vault into weekly RB1 status.

At this point in a draft, I don't see much of a reason not to take a shot on a high-upside lottery ticket like Dillon.

Round 10 -- Gus Edwards, Ravens

ADP: 109th overall (RB41; 10.01)

This is the Land of the Handcuffs, but Gus Edwards should have some legit standalone value even if J.K. Dobbins plays all 16 17 games.

In 2020, Edwards ran the ball 144 times and finished as the RB35. I know that doesn't blow you away, but this is Round 10 we're talking about. The 144-carry season was Edwards' third straight year of meaningful volume after he totaled 137 and 133 rushing attempts, respectively, in 2018 and 2019. The Baltimore Ravens clearly like him.

Once Baltimore took Mark Ingram out of the picture last year and handed the backfield to Edwards and J.K. Dobbins, Edwards was consistently busy. From Week 8 on (Week 8 was Ingram's first game as an inactive), Edwards got at least seven carries in eight of nine games, and he and Dobbins notched seven goal-line carries apiece.

Could Dobbins take over the backfield and have a monster season? Sure. That's possible. But the more likely scenario is Dobbins leading the way with Edwards being involved a fair amount.

There should be enough rushing attempts to go around. The Ravens have been the most run-heavy offense in football in each of the last two seasons. They're going to run it a lot in 2021, and we project Edwards to tally 141 carries and 6.4 rushing tuddies. It's hard to ask for more than that this late in the draft.