If you're a fan of any AFC South team other than the Indianapolis Colts, it must have been incredibly frustrating to watch the Colts stumble and fall into a perfect replacement for Player Profiler uses Breakout Age to evaluate the progress of receivers during their college careers, and according to their data, Hopkins' breakout as an 18-year-old is elite among receivers. He stepped onto the field for Clemson and dominated right away, meaning his quick success in the NFL shouldn't come as a surprise.
Hopkins isn't the best athlete to ever play the wide receiver position, with an athleticism score in the 68th percentile (according to Player Profiler), but his proven production in college revealed a player who got the most out of the athleticism he had. That's likely why he's one of the most impressive second-year receivers in recent history in the NFL.
Since 2000, 72 receivers have caught 50 or more passes in their second seasons in the league, and despite not finishing his second season just yet, Hopkins is already approaching the top 20 in yards among those players. He ranks sixth in yards per game and 10th in yards per reception among that same group.
Our data loves him just as much when compared to other second-year breakout stars. Here's a look at how Hopkins stacks up with every wideout with 50 or more catches in his second season over the past two years.
| Year | Name | Receptions | Rec NEP | Targets | Rec NEP/Target | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Marvin Jones | 51 | 81.65 | 80 | 1.02 | 92.16% |
| 2014 | DeAndre Hopkins | 60 | 84.53 | 90 | 0.94 | 88.33% |
| 2013 | Josh Gordon | 87 | 138.64 | 159 | 0.87 | 88.51% |
| 2013 | Michael Floyd | 66 | 96.41 | 113 | 0.85 | 96.97% |
| 2013 | Alshon Jeffery | 89 | 117.41 | 149 | 0.79 | 85.39% |
| 2013 | Rod Streater | 60 | 73.82 | 99 | 0.75 | 90.00% |
| 2013 | T.Y. Hilton | 83 | 89.17 | 139 | 0.64 | 80.72% |
| 2013 | Kendall Wright | 94 | 80.09 | 139 | 0.58 | 79.79% |
| 2014 | Keenan Allen | 72 | 56.09 | 110 | 0.51 | 83.33% |
Marvin Jones' big play breakout last year is the only thing keeping Hopkins from the top of the per-target data in the chart above, while Josh Gordon and Alshon Jeffery's crazy volume as receivers keep them in the lead for top Reception NEP honors. But Hopkins goes toe-to-toe with Jeffery, Gordon, Hilton and company in every metric, and bests them all in per-target efficiency.
Hopkins has more yards per game in his second season in the league than A.J. Green, Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall did in their sophomore campaigns, and his NEP metrics stack up, as well. Here's Hopkins' current pace statistics for this season compared with those elite receivers second seasons.
| Full Name | Receptions | Rec NEP | Targets | Rec NEP/Target | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 78 | 109.34 | 151 | 0.72 | 88.46% |
| A.J. Green | 97 | 109.84 | 164 | 0.67 | 85.57% |
| Brandon Marshall | 102 | 118.05 | 170 | 0.69 | 89.22% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 80 | 112.71 | 120 | 0.94 | 88.33% |
Those numbers speak for themselves. Hopkins is playing at an elite level at the moment, and only has one hurdle between himself and a career as a top-tier receiver in the NFL.
Hopkins has to prove that he can continue to play at this level without Johnson on the other side of the field. If he can do that, his production has been among the best for a second-year receiver in recent memory, and that bodes well for a very productive career for the Houston wideout.