Back in May, during the most boring part of the NFL calendar, I wrote an article discussing the value of an incomplete pass, and considered the damage teams were doing to their expected point outcomes by force-feeding their top receiver the football.

You can check out only their second screen to Watkins this season.

Whether Chris is literally reporting the second such pass to Watkins, or jokingly jabbing the team for not throwing enough screens to Watkins, the sentiment remains the same. Sammy is seeing the top cover men in the league on a regular basis, but could still be used effectively in the screen game if the Bills drew up those plays. He ran screen plays at Clemson so often that it negatively impacted his perception as a well-rounded NFL receiver coming out of college, because NFL receivers aren't used as a screen option nearly as often as Watkins was with the Tigers.

Which is why it's startling to see him used downfield so often, especially in an offense with such poor quarterback play. Neither Kyle Orton nor E.J. Manuel rank among the top-20 quarterbacks in Passing NEP per attempt (among those with over 100 drop backs), and Buffalo is in the middle of the pack in our opponent-adjusted team passing metrics. Receivers who typically see shorter targets also have less penalizing per-incompletion metrics, and Watkins is seemingly custom-made for those short, quick plays.

Watkins clearly does big things once he has the football, which is why the Bills continue to try to get him involved. But the way he's used could use some tweaking, and some extra targets for his less exciting counterparts Robert Woods and Chris Hogan could help, as well. Neither has as harsh of a per-incompletion NEP loss, but neither is as productive of a receiver on a per-reception basis, either.

Be Like Mike

So how do the Bills get Watkins involved in a less risky fashion? Be more like the Dolphins.

Miami's top receiver Mike Wallace is once again among the "best" in terms of NEP lost on incompletions thrown in his direction. His 2013 data stood out as one of the league's most efficient recipients of incomplete throws, and this season he's on a similar pace. Among the group listed above, his per-incompletion loss of NEP is the best by a decent margin.

Wallace's overall production this season isn't as impressive as Watkins', as his Reception NEP and Success Rate are both lower than the rookie's numbers. But with both receivers sitting at 98 targets, incompletions thrown at Wallace have resulted in over 20 Net Expected Points worth of improved results versus Watkins. Why is that?

Both players see a similar share of their team's passing offense, and neither team is particularly bad about throwing interceptions. Both rank in the mid-teens in our passing offense metrics, and have quarterbacks who hover near the middle of our player rankings at the position. So with everything else nearly identical, we can safely assume that the quality of the passes thrown to Wallace are better than those thrown to Watkins.

Throwing the football in the NFL is a risk/reward situation, and the difference between Mike Wallace and Sammy Watkins reveals how teams differ in their approach to getting their best receivers involved. The Bills are taking more risks by throwing the ball to Watkins in more dangerous situations, and he's produced better positive metrics while also being among the worst when considering how incomplete targets to him impact the offense.

Wallace, on the other hand, has slightly worse production but with a much better average non-catch "result." Is the risk worth the reward? Not in every case, and especially not in this one.

There are better ways to use Sammy Watkins than the way the Bills are currently deploying their first-round pick, which is why his low catch rate and extreme NEP loss per incomplete target numbers are frustrating. Watkins is an accomplished catcher of the football and has run more screens in his life than most 15-year NFL veteran receivers. Getting him involved more in the short game, on easier throws, would possibly help vault the Buffalo offense into the upper echelon in the NFL, despite their lackluster quarterback options.