Trey Sermon Can Make Some Fantasy Football Noise Right Away With the 49ers

Sermon has a chance to be productive as a rookie in a solid San Francisco offense. What kind of numbers could he produce?

Trey Sermon's fantasy-football stock got a boost on Friday night as the San Francisco 49ers moved up to draft him 88th overall.

Sermon is an interesting prospect because he never really got big-time usage in college, but he did pretty well with the carries he did get. In 2020, his first season at Ohio State, Sermon put up 870 rushing yards and four scores in only eight games.

The Niners do have a lot of bodies in the backfield, but none of them are surefire studs. Can Sermon take over in San Fran?

Player Comparisons

numberFire's JJ Zachariason and Jim Sannes break down Sermon's profile, and JJ gives his top comparison.

Brandon Gdula's draft database has found these 10 prior prospects to have the most similar statistical profiles to Sermon. Keep in mind that these are based not on play style or traits but age, athleticism, draft equity, experience, efficiency, and production.

Trey Sermon Profile ComparisonsSimilarity
Damien Harris83.1%
Matt Jones82.8%
Wayne Gallman82.7%
Stevan Ridley82.6%
LaMical Perine82.4%
Eddie Lacy81.9%
David Johnson77.6%
Benjamin Snell Jr77.5%
Devonta Freeman77.3%
Carlos Hyde77.0%

Gdula's Take: Sermon doesn't have a great receiving profile but lands in a run-friendly offense with a team that now has a run-friendly quarterback in Trey Lance. It's a good player going to a great situation.

Sermon's 2021 Fantasy Football Projection

With Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson playing well when healthy in previous seasons, Sermon isn't a lock to run away with this backfield, but he'll be fantasy relevant right away on a quality San Francisco offense.

Zachariason's initial 17-game projections for Sermon in 2021 include 901 rushing yards and 7.5 scores in addition to 225 receiving yards and 1.0 touchdowns as a pass-catcher, making him the PPR RB27 for the season.

On FanDuel Sportsbook, the Niners are listed at +1300 to win the Super Bowl and +200 to take the NFC West, and they have a win total projection of 10.5 -- with -167 on the under -- on FOX Bet.