Davis Mills Has a Wide Range of Outcomes at the NFL Level
Davis Mills was a high-level, five-star recruit out of high school, and despite limited time at Stanford (he appeared in only 14 career games for the Cardinal with just 438 passing attempts), the Houston Texans drafted the quarterback 67th overall.
Part of the reason for Mills' limited tenure at Stanford was that he simply played behind K.J. Costello, who wound up getting hurt in 2019. Mills' performance in Costello's absence -- 1,960 yards on 241 attempts for a quarterback rating of 144.8 -- led to Costello's transfer.
Mills' profile gives him a wide range of draft possibilities. What can he bring to Houston?
Player Comparisons
Brandon Gdula's draft database has found these 10 prior prospects to have the most similar statistical profiles to Mills. Keep in mind that these are based not on play style or traits but age, athleticism, draft equity, experience, efficiency, and production.
| Davis Mills Profile Comparisons | Similarity |
|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 88.1% |
| Dave Ragone | 87.5% |
| Chris Simms | 87.5% |
| John Beck | 84.6% |
| Kyle Trask | 84.0% |
| Ryan Finley | 83.7% |
| Kellen Clemens | 83.4% |
| Jacoby Brissett | 83.2% |
| Connor Cook | 82.4% |
| Charlie Frye | 82.3% |
Gdula's Take: Mills was a five-star recruit with a mixed bag in college, resulting in a scary age-adjusted experience score and some middling efficiency. It's not a great combination for success.
Betting on the Texans
On FanDuel Sportsbook, the Texans are listed at +13000 to win the Super Bowl -- the second-worst odds -- and +1600 to take the AFC South. They have a win total projection of 4.5 on FOX Bet.
