Week 11 was a wacky one in the NFL, and it led to the biggest shakeup atop our rankings. There’s now a new top team, and the playoff picture is becoming clearer and yet more puzzling at the same time (thank you, ties and NFC South). This week we’ll look at a few key playoff scenarios that will take place over the next few weeks.
A weekly reminder, our power rankings aren’t subjective, they’re based off our nERD scores put together by people much smarter than me. For those unfamiliar, nERD is our calculation of how good a team really is, based on expected point differential against a league average team. If the team's nERD rating is 10, they would be expected to win by 10 points against a league-average opponent. All individually noted rankings are based off our Net Expected Points metric.
Each week, we’ll list all 32 teams from worst to best with a more detailed breakdown of five different teams. The highlighted teams will rotate each week, which will lead to each team being featured at least three times during the course of the season.
On to the Next One
32. Jacksonville Jaguars (nERD: -10.54, Record: 1-9, Last Week: 32)
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (nERD: -8.26, 2-8, Last Week: 31)
30. Oakland Raiders (nERD: -7.89, 0-10, Last Week: 29)
29. Tennessee Titans (nERD: -7.14, 2-8, Last Week: 28)
28. St. Louis Rams (nERD: -5.45, 4-6, Last Week: 30)
27. New York Jets (nERD: -4.82, 2-8, Last Week: 25)
26. Chicago Bears (nERD: -4.77, 4-6, Last Week: 27)
25. Carolina Panthers (nERD: -4.38, 3-7-1, Last Week: 26)
24. Minnesota Vikings (nERD: -4.19, 4-6, Last Week: 23)
23. New York Giants (nERD: -3.17, 3-7, Last Week: 22)
Barely Hanging On
22. Cleveland Browns (nERD: -2.78, 6-4, Last Week: 19)
21. Atlanta Falcons (nERD: -2.65, 4-6, Last Week: 20)
It’s possible Mike Smith gets fired as the head coach of the Falcons after making the playoffs for the fifth time in his seven years coaching the team. For teams in the NFC South this season, making the playoffs appears to be more of a burden than a privilege. Heading into Week 12, every team in the division is under .500, and each team has looked the part. At 4-6, the Falcons are currently in the lead in the division, though we have them with just a 36.6 percent chance of making the playoffs behind New Orleans’ 49.7 percent.
Part of that can be credited to Atlanta’s remaining schedule. The Falcons still have road games against the Saints and Packers, while hosting games against the Browns, Cardinals, Steelers and Panthers. Only two of those teams are below Atlanta in our rankings, and Cleveland is only back one spot and 0.13 Spotrac, but he’s playing at a much higher level. He’s a force in the secondary the 49ers had lacked in the past and his ability to play both the pass and the run has eased the responsibility on the rest of the secondary, which was perceived to be a weakness heading into the season.
The defense is going to have to step up for San Francisco to make a run to the playoffs, because the offense has not been impressive. The 49ers rank 23rd in Adjusted NEP, 19th through the air and 26th on the ground. The rushing rank in concerning, as the ground game has long been a dominant piece of the San Francisco offense. Only two running backs with at least 100 carries have a lower Rushing NEP than ProFootballReference.com play index, on third downs, the Chiefs have completed 13 of 17 passes targeting Bowe and 12 of 16 targeting Kelce. All four of Kelce’s touchdowns have also come on third down. Charles has also caught 9 of 11 of his targets on third down this season. Another key has been short third downs. Of the 125 third downs Kansas City has faced this season, 71 (56.8 percent) have been with six yards or less to go.
That’s where this year’s magic of Alex Smith comes into play. Smith ranks 11th in Passing NEP, and of the quarterbacks ahead of him, only Tony Romo has dropped back fewer times. Smith is averaging fewer than 200 passing yards per game, but the amount of times he’s put the team in a position to make a mistake has been limited.
Playing this way, the Chiefs have a 85.2 percent chance of making the playoffs as at least a wild card. Now with the same record as the Broncos, and some injuries to key Denver players, the Chiefs have a 43.4 percent chance of winning the AFC West with a game against the Broncos Week 13 at Arrowhead.
7. Detroit Lions (nERD: 5.12, 7-3, Last Week: 3)
6. Baltimore Ravens (nERD: 5.33, 6-4, Last Week: 5)
5. Arizona Cardinals (nERD: 5.50, 9-1, Last Week: 7)
A Top Tier
4. Miami Dolphins (nERD: 7.01, 6-4, Last Week: 4)
3. Denver Broncos (nERD: 7.41, 7-3, Last Week: 1)
2. Green Bay Packers (nERD: 7.54, 7-3, Last Week: 9)
1. New England Patriots (nERD: 7.84, 8-2, Last Week: 6)
Let’s take a look at the Packers and Patriots, who both jumped ahead of the Broncos in the rankings this week. Denver was long the best team in football as we covered last week, but a bad loss to the Rams dropped the Broncos to number three, their lowest ranking this season. With possible looming injuries to Julius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, the door may be open for a new top team. Based on nERD, that team would be the New England Patriots, with the Green Bay Packers close behind. Both teams started off slow and have picked up with dominant play in recent weeks.
What’s gotten both of these teams to where they are at this point of the season has been the offense. The Packers are easily the top ranked offense by Adjusted NEP, but the Patriots are third with just the Colts in between. The teams rank third and fourth in passing offense by Adjusted NEP, though the two teams have gotten to those rankings differently. Green Bay has taken advantage of some shaky defenses in Chicago and Philadelphia for big plays and a lot of points. The Packers could have an even bigger lead as a pass offense if they haven’t felt the need to take their foot off the gas with huge leads in the third quarter during their past two games. The Patriots have gotten their share of big plays, but with an improvement from their offensive line, they’ve limited the amount of negative plays they had at the start of the year.
While they can be considered the two best teams in football, there’s a 10 percent difference in their playoff odds. New England currently has a 92.9 percent chance of making the playoffs, while the Packers are at 83.4 percent. These teams will meet at Lambeau Field next week, but the Packers will be hoping the Patriots will be coming into the game on a seven-game win streak.
New England will host Detroit in Week 12, with the Lions currently holding first place in the NFC North and a 54.1 percent chance of winning the division. Green Bay and Detroit won’t play again until Week 17 and the division could be wrapped up by that point. A Patriots win would give the Packers a huge boost in division odds as their opponents between the Patriots and Lions are the Falcons, Bills and Buccaneers. Even with the Packers not involved, the NFC North could take a big shift in Foxborough.