Your fantasy football team has suddenly become what we've seen in Buffalo over the last 48 hours: snowed in.
Most trade deadlines have passed, which means this is it. What you see - what you have - is what you're going to have to mostly deal with from here on out. This is your team. You can't escape it.
The waiver wire is still a nice outlet, but converting bench depth into starters, or selling low on a player with an unfavorable upcoming schedule, is no longer an option. As a result, our lineup decisions become even tougher.
As always, the hope is that this column can help you optimize those choices each week.
Let's get at it.
Quarterback
Start FantasyData.com), while the Patriots deploy more of a pass-happy approach. Gray's value this week will come on the goal line, but Detroit has allowed just two total running back rushing touchdowns since Week 2, making that a tough thing to bank on.
Start Denard Robinson - Denard Robinson is still out there in some ESPN.com leagues, and even if they're dead ones, he's still only being started in roughly 40% of them. For real.
Robinson has seen significant work in four straight games. In those games, he's averaged over 17 PPR fantasy points per contest, never dipping below the 12.8 points he scored against Miami a few weeks back.
While his opponents haven't been stellar (none rank higher than 15th against the run according to our metrics), Robinson won't be facing any studly defensive front this weekend against Indianapolis. You know, the same team that just watched the aforementioned Jonas Gray run all over them in Week 11. The Colts rank 31st against the run, and Shoelace should be able to do some serious work against them this weekend.
Sit Ryan Mathews - I wrote up Mathews in this week's 15 Transactions article, noting that the Chargers' offense has been pretty awful over their last couple of games. A lot of that has to do with a rush offense that now ranks last in the league in Adjusted Rushing NEP.
Mathews will see the most touches in the backfield, but the team faces an underrated Rams' front that ranks 10th against the run, per our metrics. I'm simply not confident in the Chargers' offense right now.
Start Joique Bell - Bell hasn't had much of a ceiling this year, ranking in the weekly running back top 10 just once. But he's also been a relatively safe option despite an inefficient -0.08 Rushing NEP per rush on the season - he's hit the double-digit PPR mark in six of his nine games this year.
Bell has a nice matchup against New England this week, a team that's given up the ninth-most points to running backs this year, and one that also ranks ninth from the bottom in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP. I'd feel good about him in what could be a relatively high-scoring game.
Other Players to Start: Tre Mason, C.J. Anderson
Other Player to Sit: Chris Ivory, Darren McFadden
Wide Receiver
Start Anquan Boldin - Why aren't more people talking about how awesome Anquan Boldin's been this year? Our own Leo Howell took notice, and it's time for folks to do the same.
Boldin now has six targets in every game this season, catching five passes in all but one. His three touchdown receptions makes for a fairly low total, but in PPR leagues, Boldin's hit 10-plus fantasy points in each of his last seven games.
He'll take on a Washington secondary that ranks 30th against the pass according to our metrics, and one that he torched last season for 5 catches, 94 yards and 2 touchdowns. Even if he doesn't score this week, he'll continue to be a safe option, especially in PPR formats.
Sit Andre Johnson - It may not be easy for you to bench a guy like Andre Johnson given the options to replace him, but there's reason to believe he could struggle against Cincinnati this week.
The Bengals secondary has been good this year, currently coming in eighth in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP. This has translated into wide receivers not scoring a whole lot of fantasy points against them - the Bengals have allowed just 6 wide receiver touchdowns in 10 games this year.
The Texans are the run-heaviest team in the NFL, and will take advantage of a Cincinnati rush defense that's had trouble stopping ground attacks all season (30th against the run, per our metrics). I expect a healthy dose of Arian Foster and Alfred Blue, while the Texans limit Ryan Mallett's potential to make mistakes. As a result, Johnson's numbers could suffer.
Start Kenny Stills - Brandin Cooks is out for the year, which could open up some opportunities for Saints' wideout Kenny Stills. He'll face a Ravens secondary that's a little depleted with stud corner Jimmy Smith sidelined, but regardless of matchup, Stills has been decent in fantasy since New Orleans' Week 6 bye.
Many are afraid to use a Saints receiver due to inconsistent volume, but the big-play Stills is averaging 5.4 targets per game over his last five, which is significant enough considering his ability to go vertical. Meanwhile, the Ravens have faced the eighth-most passing plays in the NFL this year, meaning volume may not be a problem for the Saints aerial attack this weekend.
Stills isn't a plug-and-play option, but a nice bye week filler with obvious upside.
Sit Brandon LaFell - While a player like Anquan Boldin is brilliant in fantasy for his consistency, LaFell is anything but due to his up-and-down production. A snapshot of LaFell's fantasy season shows a wide receiver who ranks 26th in PPR scoring, and that's without catching a single pass during Weeks 1 and 2. But when you dig into how he's scored his fantasy points, you start to see how untrustworthy he is.
Since Week 3, LaFell has ranked 61st, 8th, 88th, 5th, 42nd, 4th, 17th and 45th at the wide receiver position in PPR scoring. If you like unnecessary sweats, then you probably love LaFell. But me? I'll take consistency at a highly volatile position any day of the week.
Not only that, but New England faces Detroit this week. The Lions have allowed just one top-10 performance to wide receivers this year in PPR leagues (Kenny Stills in Week 7), while just seven wide receivers have ranked higher than 30th in a given week at wide receiver versus them. That's fewer than one per game.
Start Odell Beckham - I mentioned Beckham last week as a strong play regardless of the matchup, and the main reason I'm throwing him out there again in this one is because he's only starting in 53% of fantasy leagues on ESPN. That needs to change.
Though Dallas ranks fourth in fantasy points against to wide receivers this season, that number isn't as great as it seems. According to our analytics, when you adjust for strength of schedule, the Dallas secondary is 22nd-best in the NFL. And that's a ranking that's consistently dropped as we've moved through the season.
Beckham faced Dallas in Week 7 and was able to catch 4 passes for 34 yards and 2 scores against them. While we shouldn't expect another pair of touchdowns, we should see his yardage total increase - he saw just six targets in that initial meeting. Since that game, Beckham has seen 11, 9 and 13 targets from his quarterback.
Other Players to Start: Steve Smith, Josh Gordon
Other Player to Sit: Dwayne Bowe, Cecil Shorts
Tight End
Start Coby Fleener - Like most tight ends, Coby Fleener's production looks like a roller coaster. But over his last two games, Fleener has combined to score almost 40 PPR fantasy points, ranking fourth and first at the position in Weeks 9 and 11, respectively.
With Dwayne Allen likely out, Fleener has all the potential in the world against a bad Jacksonville defense. The Jags have allowed five TE1 (top 12) performances this year, and rank 23rd against the position in terms of fantasy points against. Fleener's a great play.
Sit Jermaine Gresham - Plenty of fantasy owners use the previous week's performance as reason to start a player in the upcoming one. That's generally not a great idea, but this is especially true for Jermaine Gresham.
Despite scoring twice last week against the best tight end defense in the NFL, Gresham still ranks just 20th in tight end scoring this year. He's also been wildly inefficient, as only four tight ends in the NFL have a worse Reception NEP per target average. Don't get cute and start him against the Texans, who've proven to stop the tight end position this year.
Start Charles Clay - Clay has 17 receptions on 23 targets over his last three games, and will face a Denver defense this week that's seen the most passing plays against in the league. That logically makes sense, as teams are always playing catch up against them. So Ryan Tannehill should see volume this weekend, and Clay could reap the rewards, especially against a defense that ranks 28th against the tight end position this season.
Other Players to Start: Larry Donnell, Niles Paul
Other Player to Sit: Jared Cook, Jace Amaro
Defense
Start the Indianapolis Colts - In 10 weeks worth of games, the only defense to not rank 9th or better in weekly defensive scoring against Jacksonville has been Cincinnati (Week 9). The Colts get the Jags this weekend. You know what to do.
Sit the Miami Dolphins - The Dolphins defense is really good. Actually, it's the best. According to NEP, they rank first against the pass and 15th against the run. Against Peyton Manning and the Broncos, though, you're better off streaming the position this week.
Other Defenses to Start: San Diego Chargers, Buffalo Bills
Other Defenses to Sit: Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens