7 Daily Fantasy Football Tournament Plays for Week 11
As the season goes on, sample sizes grow and numbers become more telling. While this leads to sharper pricing on daily fantasy sites, it also gives you better numbers to help put together your lineups.
Lets get to it
Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals - Coming off of an absolutely horrendous performance last week, Dalton finds himself with a much more favorable matchup on Sunday against the New Orleans Saints. New Orleans' secondary has left much to be desired, ranking 20th in Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play, giving up the 11th-most points to opposing quarterbacks. Vegas has the Bengals pinned as 7-point underdogs, with the over/under set at 50. If the game plays out like this, a high-scoring contest in which they're trailing, it should allow Dalton to see plenty of volume. While he hasn't exactly inspired confidence this year, he has thrown for over 300 yards twice, and has three games with multiple touchdowns - under these favorable circumstances, he has the potential to put up big numbers.
Trent Richardson, Indianapolis Colts - In what is projected to be the highest scoring game of the week, Richardson and the Colts will be up against the Patriots and their pedestrian run defense. New England ranks 24th against the run according to our metrics, and they've allowed opposing running backs to shine in fantasy, giving up the fourth-most points per week, including three weeks in which Patriots' opponents had two backs put up at least 10 fantasy points. New England hasn't held a backfield under 30 fantasy points since Week 6. While the Colts are incredibly pass-heavy in the red zone, in a game that promises a ton of touchdowns on both sides, it's worth noting that, despite missing one game, Richardson leads the team in red-zone carries, giving him added upside.
Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers - Fresh off of a seven-game injury, Mathews is a bit of a risky play, with his workload being a question mark. This has his price tag in DFS nice and low, and will likely keep his ownership numbers in tournaments fairly low as well. He's coming back to a favorable matchup against a Raiders defense that ranks 18th against the run on a per play basis, and has given up the third-most fantasy points to running backs. San Diego is favored to win by 10, the biggest margin in the league this week, and playing with a comfortable lead should allow them to run the ball with high volume. The risk that Mathews may be eased back into the rotation is a very real one and can't be ignored. But the situation is favorable enough, his price tag is low enough, and his ownership should be low enough that the risk is worth it this week.
Julian Edelman, New England Patriots - While Edelman will likely be in a pretty big percentage of lineups this week, he offers the kind of value and upside this week that is hard to pass up. He has six or more receptions in five of his nine games this season, and has seen 10 or more targets three times. As I mentioned above, this game is projected to be the highest scoring of the week, with the over/under at a whopping 57.5. With that many points to go around in this game, and Edelman's surprisingly high red zone usage (he leads the team with 12 red zone targets), the potential of a touchdown or two to go with a high reception total positions him for a huge game.
Pierre Garcon, Washington Redskins - With a DraftKings price tag $3,300 cheaper than teammate Desean Jackson, Garcon is the receiver to own in Washington this week. With RG3 at the helm, Jackson and Garcon have very similar usage numbers, with Garcon seeing 25% of Griffin's targets to Jackson's 26%. With a projected team total of 26.5, and up against a Tampa Bay secondary that ranks dead last in terms of Adjusted Defensive Pass NEP per play, Washington should have a nice day through the air.
Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings - Including Rudolph in your lineup this week will mean that you have to monitor his health leading up to the game, and be prepared to switch him out if need be, as he's still not 100% to play on Sunday. With that being said, if he does play, he's a terrific option at tight end. The Bears defense has been absolutely torched lately, and now rank 29th in the league against the pass as a result. They've especially struggled to defend the tight end position, having given up the most fantasy points per game to the position, and 20-plus points to opposing tight ends in three of their last four games. While quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has struggled, he has attempted 35 or more passes in three of his last four games, and has thrown touchdowns in his last three. Not exactly awe-inspiring, but enough to support a solid fantasy option in Rudolph.
If Rudolph doesn't go this week, I'll look to Jared Cook, up against a Broncos team that's given up the fourth-most fantasy points to the tight end position, in what is projected to be the third-highest scoring game of the week.
Washington Redskins - Washington has an incredibly favorable matchup against Tampa this week, and a low DraftKings price tag to go with it. The Bucs are projected to score the third-fewest points in the league this week, making this play fairly safe, though it also comes with a lot of potential upside. Tampa is tied for third in the league in giveaways, and Bucs' quarterbacks have been hit the third most in the league, while Washington has been above-average in getting to the quarterback, putting up 23 sacks so far.