There's a game - a board game turned online one - called Diplomacy that I play with some of my high school buddies. It's a war game (nerd alert) set in Europe prior to World War I, but unlike most war games where you try and conquer territories, there's an absence of dice in Diplomacy. In essence, there's no chance involved - there's just straight-up backstabbing and taking advantage of the other teams playing with you based on orders that you submit each turn.
(This is the nerdiest intro I've ever written.)
You need to have a certain, special mindset when you approach a game of Diplomacy. Staying one step ahead is key, and making intelligent moves before obvious information is presented to you is the single most important aspect of the game. Well, other than finding the opportune time to backstab your real-life best friend, that is.
But this notion is sort of the way you need to handle your fantasy football start or sit decisions, too, especially down the stretch. We're no longer in the "wait and see" mode in football - it's Week 11, for crying out loud. You have to start making decisions that may feel uncomfortable, but are sincerely logical. Even if you haven't seen a particular player on the field much this year, benching him because of that fact won't do you much good. There's just not enough time to wait around.
Perhaps there's no player who fits this idea more than the first guy on this week's list of start/sits.
Quarterback
Start Mathews should see 15 touches in San Diego's Week 11 contest against the Raiders, which is good news because, you know, he's facing the Raiders. Oakland ranks 16th against the run according to our schedule-adjusted metrics, but 30th in terms of fantasy points against to running backs. A key reason for this is because no team has faced more running plays than Oakland this season. That's not a bad thing, because volume matters in fantasy football.
With ESPN.com leagues. If you look at how he's performed, you'd probably take him out of your lineup immediately.
In PPR formats, Colston has ranked 45th, 52nd and 51st at wide receiver over the last three weeks. This season, he's ranked higher than 37th at wide receiver in a given week just once - he ends up as a WR4 or WR5 in the majority of his games.
That alone should make you want to bench him, but the matchup isn't all that fantastic, either. While the Bengals were beat up by the Browns last week, they still rank seventh against the pass this year according to NEP, and have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this year.
Start Odell Beckham Jr. - I felt the need to bring up OBJ here because he's becoming - how should I phrase this - matchup proof?
Over the last three weeks, Beckham has ranked 10th, 8th and 18th in PPR leagues at wide receiver. In those contests, he saw 6, 11 and 9 targets. He now has 264 (!) yards over his last two games.
The fact that he plays the ninth-ranked 49ers pass defense this week doesn't bother me. Beckham should be in your lineup, and you should feel good about it.
Other Players to Start: Roddy White, Andrew Hawkins
Other Players to Sit: Dwayne Bowe, Michael Crabtree
Tight End
Start Travis Kelce - No wide receiver has a touchdown reception for the Chiefs this season, and that should probably continue this week against the Seahawks. While Richard Sherman will control the outside, Travis Kelce should be able to take advantage of the middle of the field - that's how teams have beaten Seattle this year, as the Seahawks rank 28th in fantasy points against to tight ends.
Another piece of good news for Kelce owners is that Anthony Fasano is questionable, and didn't practice on Wednesday. Could Kelce be unleashed this week?
Sit Mychal Rivera - We can't ignore what Rivera has done over the last three weeks - 21 receptions, 185 yards and 3 touchdowns. He's seen 28 targets over this span, which is 7 more than he saw from Weeks 1 through 7.
If the volume continues to be there, Rivera should be a decent option for the rest of the 2014 season at tight end. But this week, I'm a little concerned about his potential versus the Chargers, who rank third in fantasy points against to the tight end position. The Chargers have allowed just two tight end scores all year, and only three tight ends have hit the double-digit PPR mark against them.
Start Kyle Rudolph - If Rudolph ends up playing this week, I like his potential. You certainly have to be worried about a limited snap count due to his injury that's sidelined him for most of the year, but the matchup against the Bears is phenomenal.
Chicago's allowed nine tight end touchdowns in five games, and while some of those were scored by studly players (Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen), it still shouldn't matter - nine touchdowns in five games is ridiculous. As a result, no team has allowed more points to the position than Chicago, making Rudolph an attractive play.
Other Players to Start: Jared Cook, Coby Fleener
Other Players to Sit: Charles Clay, Scott Chandler
Defense
Start the Cleveland Browns - Regardless of matchup, Cleveland's been a good defense this year in fantasy football, ranking ninth in fantasy points scored. Over their last five games, the Browns have finished no worse than 11th in a given week as a team defense in fantasy. This week they'll face Ryan Mallett in his first start, which means you should continue to ride them.
Sit the Seattle Seahawks - On paper, the Seahawks' matchup against Kansas City doesn't look all that bad. But it kind of is.
Since Week 1, the only Kansas City opponents to finish in the weekly top 10 of fantasy scoring have been Miami and Buffalo. They ranked 10th and 9th, respectively, and both of those defenses are top-five units according to our metrics (and top 10 in terms of fantasy points scored). Meanwhile, Seattle comes in with the 9th-best defense per NEP, and rank 18th in fantasy points scored. There are better options this week.
Other Defenses to Start: Denver Broncos, San Diego Chargers
Other Defenses to Sit: Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots