Super Bowl Futures Betting Update: Divisional Round
We started back in September with 32 teams, all with a chance of lifting the Super Bowl (some more than others, admittedly). But now we are down to just eight after the weird, wild, and thanks to Nickelodeon wacky Wild Card Weekend. The AFC said goodbye to the Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, and Pittsburgh Steelers. The NFC bid adieu to the Seattle Seahawks, Washington Football Team, and Chicago Bears.
Is there any value to be had in betting on this year's Super Bowl winner? Let's take a look.
Below is a list of each playoff team's implied win odds -- per their odds on Super Bowl odds -- along with their title odds according to our algorithm.
| Team | Odds | Implied Probability | nF Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | +200 | 33.3% | 15.1% |
| Green Bay Packers | +380 | 20.8% | 18.0% |
| New Orleans Saints | +550 | 15.4% | 14.3% |
| Buffalo Bills | +650 | 13.3% | 15.1% |
| Baltimore Ravens | +800 | 11.1% | 10.2% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +900 | 10.0% | 17.4% |
| Los Angeles Rams | +2200 | 4.3% | 9.1% |
| Cleveland Browns | +3000 | 3.2% | 0.9% |
For the first time all season, numberFire does not have the Kansas City Chiefs as the favorites to win the Super Bowl. The bookies still think they've got the best chance, though, so there is no value in putting your hard-earned on them at this stage.
The screaming value would seem to the team who sit behind five others in terms of the betting market, but who is behind only the Green Bay Packers according to our algorithm. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the number one ranked team in the NFL according to nERD, and at +900, they are clearly the outsider worth a punt as we head into the closing weeks of the season.
If Tampa Bay isn't to your liking, the Buffalo Bills should also fall under consideration. They have the same title odds as Kansas City in our model but have far more value at +650.
