NFL Analytics: Positional Success Rates Allowed Through Week 16
As fantasy football players, we need to study matchups each and every week.
How exactly to determine the best matchups can be tricky, but rather than look just at yards per carry or passing yards per game allowed, I like to lean on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric in various ways. NEP indicates expected points gained for a team's offense -- or denied by a team's defense.
Here's a good example of why it matters. A 15-yard catch looks great on paper, especially compared to a 5-yard catch. But if the 15-yarder comes on 3rd-and-20, it's not very impactful. If the shorter gain comes on 3rd-and-2, it's a significant play and boosts the offense's scoring expectation. It was a success.
Adding this context can show us which teams defend positions well and which teams may have their traditional stats inflated by plays that don't matter as much as others.
You can view our overall, opponent-adjusted passing and rushing defense numbers on our team rankings page, but here's a breakdown of Success Rates allowed to the various positions across the NFL through Week 16's games.
For defensive purposes, lower success rates and expected points numbers allowed are better. Tables are sorted as such.
Quarterback Pass Defense
| Defense | Passing NEP/ Drop Back |
Rank | Passing Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.08 | 2 | 41.0% | 1 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -0.08 | 1 | 42.6% | 2 |
| Washington Football Team | -0.05 | 3 | 44.2% | 4 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0.13 | 17 | 44.2% | 3 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.09 | 10 | 45.8% | 7 |
| Chicago Bears | 0.10 | 14 | 45.4% | 6 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.05 | 7 | 44.7% | 5 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 0.04 | 5 | 46.2% | 8 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.08 | 9 | 47.2% | 13 |
| Miami Dolphins | -0.04 | 4 | 46.5% | 10 |
| Denver Broncos | 0.10 | 15 | 46.7% | 12 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.05 | 6 | 46.3% | 9 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.14 | 19 | 46.7% | 11 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.15 | 21 | 48.8% | 17 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.10 | 12 | 47.6% | 14 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.10 | 13 | 48.1% | 15 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.09 | 11 | 49.5% | 20 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.17 | 23 | 48.3% | 16 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.15 | 22 | 48.9% | 18 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.19 | 24 | 49.9% | 23 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.11 | 16 | 49.7% | 21 |
| New England Patriots | 0.07 | 8 | 49.9% | 22 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.21 | 25 | 50.2% | 25 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.27 | 29 | 50.1% | 24 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.14 | 20 | 49.3% | 19 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.23 | 26 | 52.2% | 27 |
| New York Giants | 0.13 | 18 | 52.9% | 28 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.24 | 28 | 53.9% | 30 |
| New York Jets | 0.24 | 27 | 52.1% | 26 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.30 | 30 | 53.4% | 29 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.36 | 32 | 55.0% | 31 |
| Houston Texans | 0.32 | 31 | 56.5% | 32 |
| NFL Average | 0.13 | 48.5% |
Running Back Rush Defense
| Defense | Rushing NEP/ Carry |
Rank | Rushing Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.04 | 7 | 35.2% | 1 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -0.06 | 3 | 35.3% | 2 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -0.13 | 1 | 35.5% | 3 |
| New York Jets | -0.05 | 5 | 36.1% | 4 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -0.05 | 4 | 36.8% | 5 |
| Chicago Bears | 0.01 | 14 | 37.4% | 6 |
| Denver Broncos | 0.03 | 17 | 38.6% | 7 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -0.04 | 9 | 39.5% | 8 |
| New Orleans Saints | -0.02 | 10 | 40.3% | 9 |
| New York Giants | 0.06 | 23 | 40.6% | 10 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -0.01 | 12 | 40.7% | 11 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -0.01 | 13 | 41.3% | 12 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -0.11 | 2 | 41.8% | 13 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -0.05 | 6 | 41.9% | 14 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.04 | 18 | 42.1% | 15 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.06 | 20 | 42.5% | 16 |
| Miami Dolphins | -0.02 | 11 | 42.7% | 17 |
| Washington Football Team | -0.04 | 8 | 42.9% | 18 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.06 | 21 | 43.0% | 19 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.11 | 28 | 44.1% | 20 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.07 | 24 | 44.2% | 21 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.06 | 22 | 45.0% | 22 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.15 | 32 | 45.1% | 23 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0.01 | 15 | 45.5% | 24 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.08 | 25 | 45.6% | 25 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.05 | 19 | 46.0% | 26 |
| Houston Texans | 0.15 | 31 | 46.8% | 27 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.08 | 26 | 47.0% | 28 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.02 | 16 | 48.4% | 29 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.12 | 30 | 48.8% | 30 |
| New England Patriots | 0.10 | 27 | 49.4% | 31 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.12 | 29 | 49.9% | 32 |
| NFL Average | 0.03 | 42.7% |
Receiving Defense vs. Position
(This table is sorted by target success rate allowed to wide receivers.)
| Defense | RB Target Success Rate |
Rank | WR Target Success Rate |
Rank | TE Target Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 42.7% | 10 | 47.9% | 1 | 42.5% | 1 |
| Washington Football Team | 46.3% | 15 | 48.2% | 2 | 55.7% | 16 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 54.7% | 30 | 49.1% | 3 | 59.5% | 23 |
| Miami Dolphins | 57.5% | 32 | 50.3% | 4 | 52.1% | 7 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 38.3% | 3 | 51.4% | 5 | 52.2% | 8 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 37.3% | 2 | 51.5% | 6 | 53.4% | 10 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 42.1% | 7 | 51.7% | 7 | 49.4% | 3 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 40.8% | 5 | 52.8% | 8 | 59.4% | 22 |
| Green Bay Packers | 56.4% | 31 | 52.8% | 9 | 51.6% | 5 |
| Carolina Panthers | 47.0% | 17 | 53.0% | 10 | 59.3% | 21 |
| Buffalo Bills | 50.0% | 22 | 53.1% | 11 | 60.2% | 26 |
| Cleveland Browns | 48.7% | 19 | 53.3% | 12 | 60.0% | 25 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 53.2% | 28 | 53.6% | 13 | 52.9% | 9 |
| New Orleans Saints | 42.5% | 8 | 54.0% | 14 | 50.0% | 4 |
| Denver Broncos | 41.6% | 6 | 54.4% | 15 | 55.4% | 15 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 39.7% | 4 | 54.7% | 16 | 57.9% | 20 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 42.5% | 8 | 54.7% | 17 | 59.5% | 24 |
| Chicago Bears | 33.3% | 1 | 54.9% | 18 | 53.6% | 12 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 45.6% | 14 | 55.3% | 19 | 60.3% | 28 |
| New England Patriots | 43.4% | 11 | 56.1% | 20 | 56.4% | 17 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 53.0% | 27 | 56.7% | 21 | 51.8% | 6 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 50.9% | 25 | 56.9% | 22 | 48.6% | 2 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 46.7% | 16 | 57.0% | 23 | 54.1% | 13 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 44.7% | 12 | 57.7% | 24 | 53.6% | 11 |
| Tennessee Titans | 54.6% | 29 | 57.7% | 25 | 60.2% | 27 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 48.5% | 18 | 57.9% | 26 | 64.9% | 32 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 45.2% | 13 | 58.1% | 27 | 56.4% | 18 |
| New York Jets | 49.6% | 21 | 59.2% | 28 | 57.4% | 19 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 50.5% | 23 | 59.3% | 29 | 54.7% | 14 |
| New York Giants | 49.6% | 20 | 59.9% | 30 | 62.9% | 31 |
| Detroit Lions | 50.5% | 24 | 61.0% | 31 | 61.2% | 29 |
| Houston Texans | 52.3% | 26 | 64.6% | 32 | 61.8% | 30 |
| NFL Average | 46.9% | 55.0% | 55.8% |
