FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 16 Sunday Night (Titans at Packers)

On Online Sportsbook, the Green Bay Packers are 3.0-point home favorites over the Tennessee Titans, and this game has a huge 55.5-point over/under -- implying a 29.25-26.25 win for Green Bay.

Per our oddsFire tool, the betting public likes the Packers and the over. Of bets coming in on the spread, 58% of them are on Green Bay to cover, and 61% of the money is following suit. On the total, 75% of the bets and 79% of the money is on the side of the over.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

This past offseason, our Brandon Gdula did a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers ($16,000)

Boy, we have a lot of appealing high-salaried options. It starts at the top with Aaron Rodgers, who has scored at least 18.32 FanDuel points in nine straight games. He's put up at least 25.64 points in five games in that span.

The matchup is there for the Packers' passing game as our schedule-adjusted metrics rank the Titans as the third-worst pass defense. Tennessee has given up the sixth-most FanDuel points per game to signal callers (21.5).

Our model projects Rodgers as the slate's top option, pegging him to score 21.7 FanDuel points. He's obviously on the MVP radar, but he won't be my go-to MVP guy. However, with so many high-upside players on this slate, you'll want to sprinkle in a few different guys in the multiplier spot in your lineups. Rodgers should be one of them.

Derrick Henry, Titans ($15,500)

The Packers have struggled against the run all year, and that should play right into Derrick Henry's hands. We have Green Bay with the ninth-worst run D, and they've surrendered the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to running backs (25.1).

Henry has at least 24 carries in three of his last four games, with the lone exception being the contest against the Cleveland Browns when Tennessee got into a massive hole in the first half -- and Henry still got 15 carries in that one.

The concern with Henry is always the same: a lack of pass-game work. So if you think Green Bay runs away with this, you can make a case for fading him. But given the plum matchup and tight spread, Henry should eat.

We have him projected for 20.7 FanDuel points, putting him above everyone other than Rodgers.

Davante Adams, Packers ($14,000)

My favorite MVP plays of the night are Davante Adams and Aaron Jones, the latter of whom we'll get to in a minute.

Adams is coming off a 7.7-point game last week, which was his worst single-game fantasy output in any fully healthy game this year. Prior to last week, Adams had scored at least 14.6 FanDuel points in eight consecutive games. In that eight-game tear, he had more games with at least 28 points (three) than he did outings with fewer than 21 points (two).

Even in his down game in Week 15, he got 10 targets and made seven catches -- it's just that they went for only 42 scoreless yards. He's accounted for a 34% target share and 38% air yards share over the last four weeks, per AirYards.com. Volume isn't a concern, and Adams could torch a Tennessee defense that has permitted the fifth-most FanDuel points per game to wideouts.

Maybe the off game in Week 15 lowers Adams' MVP popularity a bit, although I doubt it. I'll be plugging him in as the MVP in a lot of my lineups. We project him for 18.0 FanDuel points.

Aaron Jones, Packers ($13,000)

Jones is the other dude I'll use in the MVP spot a bunch. The Titans' defense has been bad against the run as well as the pass, surrendering the seventh-most FanDuel points per game to running backs (22.5).

Jamaal Williams looks unlikely to play in this game, and that's a big boost to Jones' outlook. Prior to his injury-shortened game last week, Williams had played between 30% and 50% of the snaps in five straight games. Jones ended up seeing a season-best 90% snap rate last week when Williams exited early -- a big jump from his previous highest snap share this season of 71%. A.J. Dillon played only five snaps last week, just one more than he had in Week 14, when Williams was healthy. It should be the Jones show.

Our model loves Jones, projecting him for 20.0 FanDuel points. This is a pretty modest salary for him, and we rank Jones as the top point-per-dollar play by a significant margin. It feels like you almost have to roster him or Rodgers.

A.J. Brown, Titans ($12,500)

Jaire Alexander hasn't been shadowing tops wideouts as much lately, instead lining up primarily as Green Bay's left corner, per PFF. If that holds true this week -- and that's a big if -- Alexander would see a lot of Corey Davis while Kevin King would mostly be on A.J. Brown -- which is what PlayerProfiler is expecting. King is no slouch, but he's not on Alexander's level.

Brown has seen slightly better usage than Davis has. Over the last four weeks, Brown has accounted for 25% of Tennessee's targets and 36% of their air yards, compared to 22% and 31%, respectively, for Davis.

The Titans will likely pound Henry a lot in this game unless they get into a big hole. That could limit Brown's volume, but with how efficient Ryan Tannehill ($14,500) has been, Brown can make good on a handful of looks. We project him for 13.5 FanDuel points.

Allen Lazard, Packers ($9,500)

Allen Lazard has been the Packers' number-two wideout the past three weeks. Not only has he out-snapped Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($8,500) in that stretch, Lazard has seen 13 targets to MVS' nine over those three games. In Week 15, Lazard actually paced Green Bay's wideouts in yards with 56, hauling in five of his six looks.

It appears Lazard is getting back to the role he had to open 2020, when he was the clear number-two receiver for the Pack and put up FanDuel outputs of 16.2, 6.0 and 23.4 in the first three weeks.

According to our algorithm, Lazard is the top-projected player with a salary under $11,000. We forecast him to score 8.7 FanDuel points.

A.J. Dillon, Packers ($6,000)

As we got into above, Jamaal Williams is likely out for this game. While Williams' mid-game injury last week resulted in only five total snaps for Dillon, maybe he gets more run this time out with a full week of practice for Green Bay to get the rookie up to speed on the game-plan. Of course, there's a very real chance Dillon gets only a few snaps once again, but we've got to save salary somewhere.

We have Dillon projected for just 4.7 FanDuel points, but that's the most among any players with a salary under $8,500.