Fantasy Football: 3 Bold Predictions for Week 16
You ever eat a banana dipped in ketchup? If you answered "yes" to that question, you might want to get yourself checked out -- however, I will say this, it certainly is a bold meal choice.
Not to be confused with baldness, boldness would be sporting a mohawk at the ripe young age of 75. In an unrealistic football analogy, boldness would be trading the best receiver in football for a washed-up running back with a huge contract. Ehhh, no one would be that stup...oh, nevermind.
For this article, we'll focus the boldness on fantasy football. Think of this piece like Taco Tuesday -- it's better when it's spicy, but the spiciness is not what it's all about; it's there to add flavor. The point here is not to hit on 100% of the predictions. After all, I'm not a vomiting hippo. The goal here is to uncover insights that can help us win some dough in fantasy. The idea is to uncover some players who might either have an amazing week or post a complete dud.
Now, let's eat a serving of ketchup banana (yuck).
(All predictions are for half-PPR and FanDuel scoring for quarterbacks.)
1. Baker Mayfield Finishes as a Top-3 Quarterback
This isn't exactly Carolina Reaper spicy, since Baker Mayfield ($7,600) is fantasy's QB3 since Week 12, but given that his FantasyPros' Expert Consensus Ranking is QB13, I will count this as bold.
During his recent hot stretch, Mayfield ranks second in Passing Net Expect Points NEP per drop back and first in Passing Success Rate (i.e., the percentage of drop backs that lead to positive NEP for a team’s offense). And this express train won't be stopping in New York this week, as Mayfield goes up against a New York Jets team that ranks fourth-worst in adjusted pass defense. Over their last seven games, the Jets have allowed an average of 26 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. That's...a lot.
Given that the Cleveland Browns have the second-highest implied total on Sunday's main slate, Mayfield should be doing plenty of scoring.
2. Mitchell Trubisky Outscores Russell Wilson
At this point, Russ is barely cooking Ramen Noodles. Since Week 9, Russell Wilson ($7,900) is fantasy's QB19 in terms of fantasy points per game. Yikes. He has totaled 16 FanDuel points or fewer in four of his last six outings. Not great, Bob!
Things aren't about to get easier for the "Let Russ Cook" campaign, as that bus will be parking in the minefield that is the Los Angeles Rams defense. On the season, the Rams rank first in adjusted pass defense and have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. In his matchup against them in Week 10, Wilson managed a gag-inducing 11.9 fantasy points.
Meanwhile, Mitchell Trubisky ($7,200) has been very un-Trubisky-like since Week 12. During that stretch, Trubisky has completed 67% of his passes while tossing 8 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions. He has also outscored Wilson by nearly two fantasy points per game (18.4 to 16.7). It would be fitting of 2020 if Trubisky outscored Wilson in the fantasy championships.
3. Miles Sanders Finishes as a Top-3 Running Back
The insertion of Jalen Hurts into the starting lineup has somehow allowed the Philadelphia Eagles' coaching staff to come to the realization that they should be giving the ball more to one of their best players, Miles Sanders ($7,300).
Sanders has now totaled 19 opportunities (carries plus targets) in consecutive games after combining for just 20 in his previous two outings. His shares of the team's running back opportunities in the last two contests have been 82.6% and 95.0% -- not too shabby.
This week, Sanders will square off against a Dallas Cowboys team that's yielding the second-most fantasy points to running backs on the ground this season. In fact, the nine running backs to see at least 15 carries against Dallas have averaged 19.2 FanDuel points per game. Sanders could easily get to 15 in a game in which the Eagles are favored by 2.5.
