4 NFL DraftKings Values for Week 15
Fantasy value doesn't have one concrete meaning. In season-long leagues, one might say that value is dictated by a player's total or weekly output versus their average draft position. In daily leagues, most players are measuring value by a player's output per $1,000 in salary -- in other words, the bang you get for your buck.
Finding cheap players in high-scoring games or with big matchup upside is pivotal to paying up for high-priced players such as Patrick Mahomes and Alvin Kamara. The combination of the two is what can drive tournament-winning lineups or ones that will help you cash (in 50/50s, etc.) on a consistent basis.
Everyone has their own idea of where the salary cutoff for a value player is. It can depend on position, situation, or even site. For DraftKings, this article looks at quarterbacks who are priced under $6,000, running backs and wide receivers priced under $5,000, and tight ends priced under $4,000.
Some value plays will be obvious and might be rostered in a high percentage of lineups, while others will be more off-the-radar which could differentiate you from other lineups. We're here to parse through the data and information to find both types of low-cost-high-reward plays on a weekly basis.
Let's see who you should be fitting into your Week 15 lineups.
Alex Smith, QB, Washington Football Team
DraftKings Price: $5,000
Projected Points: 14.2
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 2.84
This past week Alex Smith got banged up and knocked out of Washington's Week 14 loss, but while he didn't practice Wednesday reports indicate some optimism around him playing. Coach Rivera has also said that Smith could start Sunday even if he fails to practice this week.
All signs are pointing to Smith playing, and if he's in there he draws a dream matchup. According to our rankings, the Seattle Seahawks are 24th against the pass and 22nd in total defensive efficiency, while they check-in 30th against fantasy quarterbacks -- per Pro Football Reference.
At home, the Football Team is expected to score just 19.5 points, but on the other hand, the Seahawks have given up nearly 27 points per game with an average of 57.5 combined points between them and their opponents in road games. Smith's ceiling is much higher than it usually is for that reason. However, if he's ultimately out, Dwayne Haskins (at the same price) is an option for large-field GPPs given the matchup.
Deandre Washington, RB, Miami Dolphins
DraftKings Price: $4,700
Projected Points: 7.2
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 1.53
There is a lot of uncertainty in the Miami Dolphins backfield. While Myles Gaskin is expected to remain out after a positive COVID test, Salvon Ahmed is practicing in a limited fashion and Matt Breida is fresh off the reserve/COVID list. DeAndre Washington is healthy and has been the only available back in recent weeks, so we should assume he gets the brunt of the work against New England.
Over the last two weeks, including his first start a week ago, Washington has converted 26 carries and 9 targets into 112 total yards. He hasn't shined, and he's played a mere 48% and 47% of snaps, respectively, but you aren't asking much at his salary. He would require only 9.4 DraftKings points for two-times value, and that's after averaging 7.6 in his last two showings.
Where the value lies, though, is in Washington's ability to produce in the passing game. In his final three years at Texas Tech, he tallied 105 catches for 982 yards and 4 touchdowns. He also has two NFL seasons of at least 41 targets with the Raiders. He could be asked to do a lot more in that side of the offense with DeVante Parker, Jakeem Grant and Preston Williams all banged up and potentially out this week.
Lynn Bowden, WR, Miami Dolphins
DraftKings Price: $3,600
Projected Points: 6.5
Projected Value: 1.79
Speaking of players who will have to step up for the Dolphins' offense, Lynn Bowden Jr. showed himself to be the guy in the absence of others. Last time out against the Kansas City Chiefs, the hybrid back/receiver hauled in 7 of 9 targets for 82 yards. Over the last two games, he's now turned 11 catches into 123 yards, while he's also rushed twice for 13 yards.
Bowden is going to be involved. According to our data, Parker and Grant would leave behind a combined 31.9% target share in the Miami offense. With Bowden operating primarily out of the slot he should get a lot of looks devoid of Stephon Gilmore coverage on the outside.
Be sure to track the health of Miami's receivers, but if they're out Bowden is a high-risk, high-reward play at his low cost.
Gerald Everett, TE, Los Angeles Rams
DraftKings Price: $3,100
Projected Points: 7.2
Projected Value: 2.33
The New York Jets are a fantasy goldmine for opposing tight ends. To this point, they are dead last in allowing 17.6 DraftKings points per game -- 1.4 more than any other defense -- and per JJ Zachariason, give up 0.92 touchdowns per game to the position.
Touchdowns pay no mind to low-volume guys like both Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett. It's really about one of them getting into the end zone once or twice throughout the course of a 30- or 40-point scoring game. How do you choose though? Everett is $700 cheaper and has been logging around the same percentage of snaps.
Higbee logged 84% and 87% of snaps over the last two, but at the same time Everett's played on 73% and 84% of snaps, respectively. His 10 targets are 2 more than Higbee's 8 over that span, and his 35 catches call for more than a single touchdown through 13 games. He could be in for a breakout day versus the Jets.
Brett Oswalt is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Brett Oswalt also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username BRO14THEKID. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.