NFL
NFL Analytics: Positional Success Rates Allowed Through Week 14

As fantasy football players, we need to study matchups each and every week.

How exactly to determine the best matchups can be tricky, but rather than look just at yards per carry or passing yards per game allowed, I like to lean on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric in various ways. NEP indicates expected points gained for a team's offense -- or denied by a team's defense.

Here's a good example of why it matters. A 15-yard catch looks great on paper, especially compared to a 5-yard catch. But if the 15-yarder comes on 3rd-and-20, it's not very impactful. If the shorter gain comes on 3rd-and-2, it's a significant play and boosts the offense's scoring expectation. It was a success.

Adding this context can show us which teams defend positions well and which teams may have their traditional stats inflated by plays that don't matter as much as others.

You can view our overall, opponent-adjusted passing and rushing defense numbers on our team rankings page, but here's a breakdown of Success Rates allowed to the various positions across the NFL through Week 14's games.

For defensive purposes, lower success rates and expected points numbers allowed are better. Tables are sorted as such.

Quarterback Pass Defense

Defense Passing NEP/
Drop Back
Rank Passing
Success Rate
Rank
Pittsburgh Steelers-0.07240.9%1
Los Angeles Rams-0.11142.4%2
Los Angeles Chargers0.121844.1%3
Washington Football Team-0.03444.9%4
New Orleans Saints0.071045.2%5
Chicago Bears0.111545.3%6
Denver Broncos0.06646.2%7
Baltimore Ravens0.04546.3%8
San Francisco 49ers0.101446.6%9
Miami Dolphins-0.04347.2%10
Kansas City Chiefs0.06747.2%10
Philadelphia Eagles0.121647.3%12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers0.07847.4%13
Dallas Cowboys0.152047.8%14
Indianapolis Colts0.07947.8%15
Green Bay Packers0.121748.5%16
Arizona Cardinals0.091248.9%17
Cleveland Browns0.182149.0%18
Seattle Seahawks0.182249.7%19
Las Vegas Raiders0.252850.0%20
Buffalo Bills0.131950.0%20
Atlanta Falcons0.212350.1%22
New England Patriots0.081150.1%23
Cincinnati Bengals0.222750.4%24
Minnesota Vikings0.212550.7%25
New York Giants0.091351.1%26
Carolina Panthers0.212451.8%27
Tennessee Titans0.212652.3%28
Jacksonville Jaguars0.282953.0%29
Detroit Lions0.303153.2%30
New York Jets0.313254.0%31
Houston Texans0.293055.3%32
NFL Average0.13 48.6%

Running Back Rush Defense

Defense Rushing NEP/
Carry
Rank Rushing
Success Rate
Rank
Pittsburgh Steelers-0.06433.3%1
Baltimore Ravens-0.06535.3%2
New York Jets-0.05935.6%3
Philadelphia Eagles-0.041035.8%4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers-0.11236.0%5
New Orleans Saints-0.06336.0%6
Chicago Bears0.001436.1%7
Denver Broncos0.031638.7%8
New York Giants0.042038.8%9
Tennessee Titans0.021539.7%10
San Francisco 49ers-0.05740.2%11
Seattle Seahawks-0.011240.6%12
Arizona Cardinals0.031741.1%13
Atlanta Falcons-0.13141.3%14
Indianapolis Colts0.001341.6%15
Miami Dolphins-0.031142.6%16
Jacksonville Jaguars0.031842.6%17
Carolina Panthers0.042342.9%18
Washington Football Team-0.06643.1%19
Green Bay Packers0.112943.3%20
Los Angeles Rams-0.05843.3%21
Cincinnati Bengals0.052443.6%22
Kansas City Chiefs0.062545.4%23
Dallas Cowboys0.082846.1%24
Houston Texans0.143146.6%25
Las Vegas Raiders0.203246.7%26
Los Angeles Chargers0.031946.8%27
Buffalo Bills0.042246.9%28
New England Patriots0.072647.7%29
Detroit Lions0.123048.6%30
Minnesota Vikings0.072748.7%31
Cleveland Browns0.042149.4%32
NFL Average0.02 42.2%

Receiving Defense vs. Position

(This table is sorted by target success rate allowed to wide receivers.)

Defense RB Target
Success Rate
Rank WR Target
Success Rate
Rank TE Target
Success Rate
Rank
Pittsburgh Steelers42.6%1048.2%140.6%1
Washington Football Team50.0%2248.6%254.7%13
Kansas City Chiefs52.9%2949.0%360.0%24
Miami Dolphins57.9%3150.0%453.7%11
Los Angeles Rams36.5%350.4%553.1%9
Los Angeles Chargers36.3%253.0%650.0%5
Baltimore Ravens37.9%453.1%760.4%26
Green Bay Packers59.3%3253.6%851.3%7
Denver Broncos41.3%654.1%956.3%17
Chicago Bears33.3%154.2%1053.2%10
New Orleans Saints43.8%1254.4%1145.9%2
San Francisco 49ers42.0%754.4%1250.0%5
Atlanta Falcons45.8%1654.5%1361.5%29
Buffalo Bills48.1%2054.5%1459.4%22
Cleveland Browns45.7%1555.0%1560.4%25
Tennessee Titans55.7%3055.0%1660.7%27
Dallas Cowboys42.4%955.1%1764.2%32
Cincinnati Bengals51.4%2755.9%1852.8%8
Carolina Panthers48.4%2156.2%1959.3%21
New England Patriots44.9%1356.2%2054.9%14
Indianapolis Colts50.6%2456.8%2146.3%3
Minnesota Vikings47.7%1856.9%2263.4%31
Tampa Bay Buccaneers39.4%556.9%2358.6%20
Arizona Cardinals45.5%1456.9%2456.3%17
Las Vegas Raiders43.7%1157.0%2556.4%19
Philadelphia Eagles42.3%857.2%2656.2%16
Seattle Seahawks51.0%2557.6%2749.4%4
New York Giants47.7%1757.9%2862.4%30
New York Jets51.5%2859.1%2959.6%23
Jacksonville Jaguars51.1%2659.4%3053.8%12
Detroit Lions47.7%1860.3%3155.6%15
Houston Texans50.6%2364.0%3261.1%28
NFL Average46.4% 55.2% 55.6%

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