NFL Analytics: Positional Success Rates Allowed Through Week 14
As fantasy football players, we need to study matchups each and every week.
How exactly to determine the best matchups can be tricky, but rather than look just at yards per carry or passing yards per game allowed, I like to lean on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric in various ways. NEP indicates expected points gained for a team's offense -- or denied by a team's defense.
Here's a good example of why it matters. A 15-yard catch looks great on paper, especially compared to a 5-yard catch. But if the 15-yarder comes on 3rd-and-20, it's not very impactful. If the shorter gain comes on 3rd-and-2, it's a significant play and boosts the offense's scoring expectation. It was a success.
Adding this context can show us which teams defend positions well and which teams may have their traditional stats inflated by plays that don't matter as much as others.
You can view our overall, opponent-adjusted passing and rushing defense numbers on our team rankings page, but here's a breakdown of Success Rates allowed to the various positions across the NFL through Week 14's games.
For defensive purposes, lower success rates and expected points numbers allowed are better. Tables are sorted as such.
Quarterback Pass Defense
| Defense | Passing NEP/ Drop Back |
Rank | Passing Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.07 | 2 | 40.9% | 1 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -0.11 | 1 | 42.4% | 2 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0.12 | 18 | 44.1% | 3 |
| Washington Football Team | -0.03 | 4 | 44.9% | 4 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.07 | 10 | 45.2% | 5 |
| Chicago Bears | 0.11 | 15 | 45.3% | 6 |
| Denver Broncos | 0.06 | 6 | 46.2% | 7 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 0.04 | 5 | 46.3% | 8 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.10 | 14 | 46.6% | 9 |
| Miami Dolphins | -0.04 | 3 | 47.2% | 10 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.06 | 7 | 47.2% | 10 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.12 | 16 | 47.3% | 12 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.07 | 8 | 47.4% | 13 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.15 | 20 | 47.8% | 14 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.07 | 9 | 47.8% | 15 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.12 | 17 | 48.5% | 16 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.09 | 12 | 48.9% | 17 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.18 | 21 | 49.0% | 18 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.18 | 22 | 49.7% | 19 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.25 | 28 | 50.0% | 20 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.13 | 19 | 50.0% | 20 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.21 | 23 | 50.1% | 22 |
| New England Patriots | 0.08 | 11 | 50.1% | 23 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.22 | 27 | 50.4% | 24 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.21 | 25 | 50.7% | 25 |
| New York Giants | 0.09 | 13 | 51.1% | 26 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.21 | 24 | 51.8% | 27 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.21 | 26 | 52.3% | 28 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.28 | 29 | 53.0% | 29 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.30 | 31 | 53.2% | 30 |
| New York Jets | 0.31 | 32 | 54.0% | 31 |
| Houston Texans | 0.29 | 30 | 55.3% | 32 |
| NFL Average | 0.13 | 48.6% |
Running Back Rush Defense
| Defense | Rushing NEP/ Carry |
Rank | Rushing Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.06 | 4 | 33.3% | 1 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -0.06 | 5 | 35.3% | 2 |
| New York Jets | -0.05 | 9 | 35.6% | 3 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -0.04 | 10 | 35.8% | 4 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -0.11 | 2 | 36.0% | 5 |
| New Orleans Saints | -0.06 | 3 | 36.0% | 6 |
| Chicago Bears | 0.00 | 14 | 36.1% | 7 |
| Denver Broncos | 0.03 | 16 | 38.7% | 8 |
| New York Giants | 0.04 | 20 | 38.8% | 9 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.02 | 15 | 39.7% | 10 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -0.05 | 7 | 40.2% | 11 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -0.01 | 12 | 40.6% | 12 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.03 | 17 | 41.1% | 13 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -0.13 | 1 | 41.3% | 14 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.00 | 13 | 41.6% | 15 |
| Miami Dolphins | -0.03 | 11 | 42.6% | 16 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.03 | 18 | 42.6% | 17 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.04 | 23 | 42.9% | 18 |
| Washington Football Team | -0.06 | 6 | 43.1% | 19 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.11 | 29 | 43.3% | 20 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -0.05 | 8 | 43.3% | 21 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.05 | 24 | 43.6% | 22 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.06 | 25 | 45.4% | 23 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.08 | 28 | 46.1% | 24 |
| Houston Texans | 0.14 | 31 | 46.6% | 25 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.20 | 32 | 46.7% | 26 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0.03 | 19 | 46.8% | 27 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.04 | 22 | 46.9% | 28 |
| New England Patriots | 0.07 | 26 | 47.7% | 29 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.12 | 30 | 48.6% | 30 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.07 | 27 | 48.7% | 31 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.04 | 21 | 49.4% | 32 |
| NFL Average | 0.02 | 42.2% |
Receiving Defense vs. Position
(This table is sorted by target success rate allowed to wide receivers.)
| Defense | RB Target Success Rate |
Rank | WR Target Success Rate |
Rank | TE Target Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 42.6% | 10 | 48.2% | 1 | 40.6% | 1 |
| Washington Football Team | 50.0% | 22 | 48.6% | 2 | 54.7% | 13 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 52.9% | 29 | 49.0% | 3 | 60.0% | 24 |
| Miami Dolphins | 57.9% | 31 | 50.0% | 4 | 53.7% | 11 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 36.5% | 3 | 50.4% | 5 | 53.1% | 9 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 36.3% | 2 | 53.0% | 6 | 50.0% | 5 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 37.9% | 4 | 53.1% | 7 | 60.4% | 26 |
| Green Bay Packers | 59.3% | 32 | 53.6% | 8 | 51.3% | 7 |
| Denver Broncos | 41.3% | 6 | 54.1% | 9 | 56.3% | 17 |
| Chicago Bears | 33.3% | 1 | 54.2% | 10 | 53.2% | 10 |
| New Orleans Saints | 43.8% | 12 | 54.4% | 11 | 45.9% | 2 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 42.0% | 7 | 54.4% | 12 | 50.0% | 5 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 45.8% | 16 | 54.5% | 13 | 61.5% | 29 |
| Buffalo Bills | 48.1% | 20 | 54.5% | 14 | 59.4% | 22 |
| Cleveland Browns | 45.7% | 15 | 55.0% | 15 | 60.4% | 25 |
| Tennessee Titans | 55.7% | 30 | 55.0% | 16 | 60.7% | 27 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 42.4% | 9 | 55.1% | 17 | 64.2% | 32 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 51.4% | 27 | 55.9% | 18 | 52.8% | 8 |
| Carolina Panthers | 48.4% | 21 | 56.2% | 19 | 59.3% | 21 |
| New England Patriots | 44.9% | 13 | 56.2% | 20 | 54.9% | 14 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 50.6% | 24 | 56.8% | 21 | 46.3% | 3 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 47.7% | 18 | 56.9% | 22 | 63.4% | 31 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 39.4% | 5 | 56.9% | 23 | 58.6% | 20 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 45.5% | 14 | 56.9% | 24 | 56.3% | 17 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 43.7% | 11 | 57.0% | 25 | 56.4% | 19 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 42.3% | 8 | 57.2% | 26 | 56.2% | 16 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 51.0% | 25 | 57.6% | 27 | 49.4% | 4 |
| New York Giants | 47.7% | 17 | 57.9% | 28 | 62.4% | 30 |
| New York Jets | 51.5% | 28 | 59.1% | 29 | 59.6% | 23 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 51.1% | 26 | 59.4% | 30 | 53.8% | 12 |
| Detroit Lions | 47.7% | 18 | 60.3% | 31 | 55.6% | 15 |
| Houston Texans | 50.6% | 23 | 64.0% | 32 | 61.1% | 28 |
| NFL Average | 46.4% | 55.2% | 55.6% |
