NFL

Daily Fantasy Football Range-of-Outcome Projections: Week 14

Fantasy football is a volatile game.

Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.

It happens. A lot.

And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.

That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.

Table Terms

FanDuel Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Median FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value: Projected median FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct: The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct: The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 2.75x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.

Quarterback

Simulation Results

Player FanDuel
Salary
Median
FDP
Value 25th
Pct
75th
Pct
25+
FDP%
Boom/Bust
Ratio
Russell Wilson $9,000 23.5 2.61 18.3 28.4 42.1% 1.29
Patrick Mahomes $8,900 23.3 2.61 18.0 28.6 41.4% 1.33
Aaron Rodgers $9,100 22.3 2.45 16.6 27.6 35.7% 0.82
Deshaun Watson $8,000 21.6 2.70 15.9 26.9 33.7% 1.52
Kyler Murray $8,100 21.0 2.59 15.5 26.7 31.5% 1.25
Tom Brady $7,800 19.3 2.48 14.3 25.3 26.2% 1.06
Justin Herbert $8,300 18.8 2.27 13.4 24.5 23.4% 0.62
Ryan Tannehill $7,900 18.4 2.33 12.9 23.5 19.0% 0.66
Matthew Stafford $7,200 18.3 2.54 13.0 23.8 21.0% 1.10
Teddy Bridgewater $7,000 18.1 2.58 12.3 22.9 17.6% 1.12
Taysom Hill $7,700 17.1 2.22 12.0 22.5 16.5% 0.56
Derek Carr $7,100 16.5 2.33 11.5 21.8 14.7% 0.73
Matt Ryan $7,300 16.4 2.25 11.3 21.0 12.2% 0.53
Mitchell Trubisky $6,800 16.3 2.40 10.9 21.8 14.3% 0.81
Tua Tagovailoa $6,600 16.3 2.47 10.8 21.6 13.3% 0.91
Philip Rivers $7,000 16.1 2.31 10.6 21.5 13.2% 0.70
Kirk Cousins $7,500 16.0 2.14 10.9 21.9 12.3% 0.47
Andy Dalton $6,800 15.6 2.29 10.8 20.8 11.4% 0.69
Daniel Jones $6,800 15.4 2.27 10.1 20.7 10.3% 0.65
Brandon Allen $6,500 15.2 2.33 10.1 20.7 10.6% 0.78
Mike Glennon $6,600 15.2 2.30 10.2 19.9 8.2% 0.63
Nick Mullens $6,700 15.1 2.26 10.0 20.6 9.1% 0.63
Alex Smith $6,600 14.8 2.24 10.0 19.7 7.8% 0.59
Jalen Hurts $6,600 14.1 2.14 9.4 19.2 7.6% 0.51
Drew Lock $6,700 13.8 2.05 9.0 19.1 6.9% 0.44
Sam Darnold $7,000 12.5 1.79 8.2 17.2 3.3% 0.19


Observations:

Looks like upside is back on the menu, boys. The position looks great this week, and after a single quarterback surpassed 30 FanDuel points last week, we could have multiple this week. It's important that we focus on passers who can pile up points. Yes, their salaries are higher and the other positions require salary for upside, but I can't imagine that 15 points from Brandon Allen will do much in a huge tournament if a few quarterbacks get to 30.

The best boom/bust ratios belong to Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, and Kyler Murray. I think either Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers are the top quarterback plays of the slate, as I discussed on this week's Heat Check podcast, but Justin Herbert, Tom Brady, and Ryan Tannehill are at more palatable salaries.

Running Back

Simulation Results

Player FanDuel
Salary
Median
FDP
Value 25th
Pct
75th
Pct
20+
FDP%
Boom/Bust
Ratio
Derrick Henry $9,600 23.1 2.41 17.8 28.0 64.4% 5.27
Dalvin Cook $10,200 19.2 1.88 13.6 25.1 46.1% 1.36
Aaron Jones $8,700 18.6 2.14 12.8 24.0 41.9% 2.09
Mike Davis $6,800 17.0 2.50 11.3 22.5 36.1% 3.09
James Robinson $8,000 16.6 2.08 10.3 22.1 33.9% 1.67
Alvin Kamara $7,800 16.3 2.10 10.7 21.5 32.4% 1.81
Austin Ekeler $7,500 16.0 2.13 10.3 21.8 32.6% 1.87
Myles Gaskin $6,000 15.3 2.54 9.7 20.2 26.2% 2.78
Chris Carson $7,700 14.9 1.93 9.7 20.6 26.9% 1.42
Ezekiel Elliott $7,600 14.9 1.95 9.5 20.2 25.5% 1.43
Raheem Mostert $7,100 14.4 2.03 8.5 20.0 25.1% 1.50
David Montgomery $6,600 13.7 2.07 8.4 18.2 18.3% 1.70
Kenyan Drake $6,500 12.6 1.94 7.6 17.7 15.2% 1.35
Ronald Jones $6,300 12.4 1.97 7.6 17.7 16.5% 1.43
Giovani Bernard $5,700 12.2 2.15 7.1 17.2 13.3% 1.72
Todd Gurley $6,100 11.9 1.95 6.8 16.2 13.1% 1.36
Jonathan Taylor $7,000 11.2 1.60 6.7 15.4 8.7% 0.69
Melvin Gordon $6,100 11.1 1.83 6.5 16.2 12.2% 1.16
Miles Sanders $6,200 10.8 1.74 6.2 15.2 8.2% 0.97
Clyde Edwards-Helaire $6,400 10.7 1.67 6.2 15.3 8.7% 0.88
Nyheim Hines $6,100 10.2 1.68 5.7 15.2 5.7% 0.91
J.D. McKissic $5,300 10.2 1.92 5.9 14.6 6.7% 1.28
David Johnson $5,900 10.1 1.72 6.0 14.4 7.6% 0.95
Wayne Gallman $6,000 10.0 1.67 5.4 15.1 8.5% 0.88
Peyton Barber $4,600 8.8 1.91 4.8 12.7 2.7% 1.26
Jamaal Williams $5,200 8.3 1.60 4.2 13.0 3.8% 0.83
Phillip Lindsay $5,800 8.3 1.42 4.7 12.5 1.6% 0.56
Frank Gore $5,200 8.2 1.58 4.0 12.0 1.4% 0.73
Duke Johnson $5,400 8.1 1.50 4.2 11.9 2.0% 0.61
Leonard Fournette $5,500 8.1 1.47 4.1 12.0 2.8% 0.60
Chase Edmonds $5,300 7.9 1.49 4.4 11.6 1.7% 0.60
Devontae Booker $5,700 7.7 1.35 3.8 11.1 1.6% 0.40
Josh Jacobs $7,400 7.5 1.01 3.6 11.4 0.8% 0.12
D'Andre Swift $6,900 7.4 1.07 3.9 10.9 0.8% 0.17
Ty Johnson $5,500 7.2 1.32 3.4 10.6 0.7% 0.39
Latavius Murray $5,500 7.0 1.27 3.6 10.6 0.7% 0.38
Le'Veon Bell $5,400 6.8 1.26 3.4 10.1 0.5% 0.34
Jeff Wilson $5,200 6.7 1.29 3.3 10.0 0.4% 0.38
Adrian Peterson $5,900 6.4 1.08 3.0 9.8 0.4% 0.20
Ito Smith $5,200 5.8 1.11 2.5 8.6 0.1% 0.22
Justin Jackson $4,800 5.5 1.16 2.7 8.4 0.0% 0.25
Trenton Cannon $4,600 5.5 1.20 2.8 8.4 0.0% 0.29
Cordarrelle Patterson $5,500 5.3 0.96 2.5 8.2 0.0% 0.12
Tony Pollard $4,800 5.2 1.08 2.5 8.1 0.0% 0.23
Carlos Hyde $5,600 5.1 0.92 2.4 8.0 0.0% 0.11


Observations:

I can't quite recall the simulations liking anyone quite as much as Derrick Henry. He's projected for the top median score of the slate, yet his salary is "only" $9,600. With no Christian McCaffrey, it's just Dalvin Cook also in that stud tier, but Cook faces the toughest rush defense in the league, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I can see why Henry is favored.

But we do have plenty of lower-salaried options to build around, as well. The boom/bust ratios rank them: Mike Davis, Myles Gaskin, Giovani Bernard, David Montgomery, Ronald Jones. My preferences are Montgomery, Gaskin, and Kenyan Drake.

This leaves the $7,000 and $8,000 range a little unappealing to me (excluding Austin Ekeler and James Robinson), but the simulations still like them overall.

Wide Receiver

Simulation Results

Player FanDuel
Salary
Median
FDP
Value 25th
Pct
75th
Pct
20+
FDP%
Boom/Bust
Ratio
Davante Adams $9,600 18.0 1.88 13.4 22.6 38.1% 1.44
Tyreek Hill $9,000 16.2 1.80 10.3 21.8 32.8% 1.06
D.K. Metcalf $8,600 15.1 1.75 8.0 20.8 27.4% 1.02
DeAndre Hopkins $8,200 14.8 1.81 9.6 20.4 26.5% 1.15
Terry McLaurin $7,200 13.8 1.92 8.1 19.7 23.4% 1.28
A.J. Brown $8,000 13.8 1.72 8.4 18.9 20.6% 0.96
Robby Anderson $6,500 13.7 2.10 8.2 18.6 20.2% 1.71
Keenan Allen $8,500 13.5 1.59 8.5 18.9 21.0% 0.73
Adam Thielen $7,700 13.4 1.74 7.9 20.6 26.4% 1.04
Tyler Lockett $7,900 13.4 1.70 7.4 18.9 20.4% 0.91
Calvin Ridley $8,100 13.1 1.61 7.0 20.1 25.4% 0.84
Allen Robinson $7,000 12.6 1.80 7.0 18.1 17.7% 1.09
Justin Jefferson $7,800 12.5 1.61 6.4 19.5 23.7% 0.83
Brandin Cooks $6,900 12.0 1.74 6.9 17.8 17.0% 1.02
Chris Godwin $7,400 11.9 1.61 6.8 17.5 15.0% 0.78
Michael Thomas $7,300 11.9 1.63 6.4 17.5 15.1% 0.81
Julio Jones $7,600 11.9 1.56 6.8 17.4 17.1% 0.76
Brandon Aiyuk $6,700 11.4 1.70 6.2 16.7 13.6% 0.90
Tee Higgins $6,400 11.1 1.74 5.2 18.3 18.3% 1.00
Deebo Samuel $6,300 11.1 1.76 6.5 16.5 12.2% 1.07
Mike Evans $7,300 10.7 1.46 5.6 15.9 10.2% 0.60
D.J. Chark $5,900 10.4 1.77 4.5 17.2 16.9% 1.06
DeVante Parker $6,500 10.4 1.60 5.0 15.8 12.2% 0.80
Corey Davis $6,800 10.3 1.52 5.4 16.2 13.2% 0.70
Keke Coutee $5,600 10.2 1.82 5.2 15.7 10.3% 1.15
Tyler Boyd $6,700 10.1 1.50 5.0 14.8 8.3% 0.63
Amari Cooper $6,800 10.0 1.47 5.0 14.8 8.3% 0.59
Marvin Jones $6,200 10.0 1.61 5.1 14.9 8.4% 0.81
Jamison Crowder $6,600 9.9 1.51 5.1 15.0 8.9% 0.70
Jerry Jeudy $5,600 9.9 1.77 3.5 15.3 11.8% 0.98
Nelson Agholor $5,200 9.8 1.89 3.3 15.6 10.0% 1.12
Antonio Brown $6,500 9.8 1.51 5.1 15.1 9.4% 0.72
T.Y. Hilton $6,000 9.5 1.58 4.3 14.5 7.7% 0.79
CeeDee Lamb $6,000 9.3 1.56 4.3 13.7 5.6% 0.70
Breshad Perriman $5,800 9.1 1.57 3.0 14.8 9.6% 0.79
Mike Williams $6,100 9.0 1.47 4.2 14.7 9.3% 0.69
Michael Pittman Jr. $5,700 8.9 1.55 3.6 13.2 4.7% 0.70
Allen Lazard $5,800 8.8 1.51 3.9 13.4 5.9% 0.68
Sterling Shepard $5,500 8.5 1.54 3.4 13.6 5.7% 0.76
Christian Kirk $5,500 8.2 1.50 2.5 13.7 6.9% 0.72
Michael Gallup $5,300 8.0 1.52 2.9 13.4 7.1% 0.74
Sammy Watkins $5,600 7.5 1.34 2.8 11.9 2.1% 0.51
Darnell Mooney $5,100 7.5 1.47 2.2 12.3 5.5% 0.68
Tim Patrick $5,400 7.4 1.38 2.2 12.7 5.3% 0.62
Danny Amendola $5,200 7.4 1.42 3.0 11.4 1.8% 0.58
Hunter Renfrow $5,300 7.2 1.35 2.9 12.0 3.3% 0.57
Larry Fitzgerald $5,000 7.2 1.43 2.7 11.1 1.9% 0.59
Anthony Miller $5,000 6.9 1.38 3.0 11.6 2.5% 0.60
Zach Pascal $4,700 6.7 1.43 3.3 10.3 1.3% 0.59
Kenny Golladay $6,600 6.7 1.01 1.7 11.3 2.5% 0.25
Henry Ruggs $5,400 6.6 1.22 1.8 11.2 3.4% 0.47
Pharoh Cooper $4,500 6.5 1.44 2.6 10.5 0.3% 0.64
Jalen Reagor $5,500 6.2 1.13 1.5 10.7 2.0% 0.39
Keelan Cole $5,100 6.2 1.22 2.2 9.9 0.5% 0.40
A.J. Green $5,300 6.0 1.14 1.3 11.0 1.6% 0.44
Emmanuel Sanders $5,300 5.9 1.12 2.3 9.2 0.6% 0.27
Marquez Valdes-Scantling $5,400 5.9 1.09 1.3 10.8 2.7% 0.40
Russell Gage $5,500 5.8 1.06 2.4 10.0 0.7% 0.32
Laviska Shenault $5,400 5.8 1.08 2.1 9.6 0.6% 0.28
K.J. Hamler $5,000 5.8 1.16 2.1 10.0 0.4% 0.41
Darius Slayton $5,400 5.7 1.06 1.0 10.8 3.0% 0.40
Golden Tate $5,100 5.7 1.12 2.1 9.7 1.1% 0.35
Jakeem Grant $4,900 5.7 1.17 2.2 9.1 0.1% 0.32
Cam Sims $4,600 5.7 1.24 2.0 9.7 0.7% 0.48
Keith Kirkwood $4,500 5.5 1.21 2.0 9.0 0.1% 0.42
Cameron Batson $4,800 5.0 1.04 1.7 8.4 0.2% 0.27


Observations:

The top receivers can all probably break the slate open, so we can't simply plug in Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry into every lineup and punt at receiver.

Despite a $9,600 salary, Davante Adams ranks second in boom/bust ratio behind only Robby Anderson at $6,500. Our projections always love Terry McLaurin, but Keke Coutee and Nelson Agholor are top-six in floor/ceiling rating, as well.

In total, 12 receivers rate out with at least a 20.0% chance to get to 20.0 FanDuel points, and six have a 75th-percentile outcome above 20.0 points. I think that balancing Henry/Cook and some of these top-tier receivers is going to be vital throughout our lineups.

Tight End

Simulation Results

Player FanDuel
Salary
Median
FDP
Value 25th
Pct
75th
Pct
15+
FDP%
Boom/Bust
Ratio
Travis Kelce $8,200 14.2 1.73 9.7 18.6 45.2% 0.93
Darren Waller $7,100 12.5 1.77 8.0 17.1 35.9% 1.03
T.J. Hockenson $6,000 9.4 1.57 5.4 14.1 20.1% 0.80
Evan Engram $5,700 8.9 1.57 4.8 12.9 15.4% 0.70
Rob Gronkowski $6,200 8.0 1.30 4.0 12.1 12.7% 0.41
Noah Fant $5,500 7.9 1.44 3.8 12.3 12.0% 0.60
Hunter Henry $5,600 7.8 1.40 4.0 12.1 11.1% 0.56
Dallas Goedert $5,600 7.6 1.36 4.0 11.7 11.6% 0.51
Hayden Hurst $5,500 7.5 1.37 3.5 11.2 8.8% 0.49
Mike Gesicki $5,700 7.3 1.29 3.7 11.6 9.9% 0.44
Logan Thomas $5,200 7.2 1.38 3.3 10.7 7.0% 0.49
Robert Tonyan $5,900 7.0 1.18 3.2 10.9 8.3% 0.31
Zach Ertz $5,300 6.9 1.30 3.2 11.4 9.5% 0.52
Jordan Reed $5,000 6.8 1.36 2.7 10.7 7.7% 0.53
Dalton Schultz $5,100 6.6 1.30 2.8 9.8 4.3% 0.40
Trey Burton $5,200 6.3 1.21 2.8 9.3 2.8% 0.27
Tyler Eifert $4,700 6.0 1.29 2.8 9.6 3.3% 0.46
Drew Sample $4,700 5.9 1.25 2.4 9.2 3.1% 0.40
Jacob Hollister $4,900 5.9 1.20 2.2 9.1 3.4% 0.33
Jordan Akins $5,000 5.8 1.17 2.5 9.5 4.7% 0.36
Irv Smith Jr. $5,100 5.3 1.04 2.3 8.3 1.5% 0.19
Mo Alie-Cox $4,600 4.7 1.02 2.0 7.3 0.3% 0.18
Jared Cook $5,400 4.5 0.84 1.9 7.4 0.7% 0.08
Cole Kmet $4,600 4.0 0.86 1.5 6.3 0.0% 0.09


Observations:

There's opportunity cost at every position this week because, at a certain point, ceiling is impossible to replace. I mistakenly didn't view Darren Waller with that level of upside last week, but he also can't really compare to Travis Kelce week-to-week. Kelce has five 100-yard games this season, and no other tight end has more than two. Those same numbers apply to 20-FanDuel-point games.

If we can't get to either Kelce or Waller, that's okay because the $5,000 range is somewhat appealing overall, and even though he's last on the table, Cole Kmet is a punt option if you assume Kelce or Waller don't put up big games.

Also, T.J. Hockenson is at $6,000 but has eight 50-yard games to rank second at the position, and the Detroit Lions played significantly faster (and better) last week under Darrell Bevell.