Week 14 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
Welcome to the Game Scripts to Target article for the 2020 season. Each week we'll be taking a look at specific games to target for daily fantasy tournaments. Stacking games has always been a popular option in GPPs, as it allows you to reach for upside with the back-and-forth scoring.
Dissecting game scripts should be a huge part of your process when building lineups in NFL daily fantasy.
How will the game play out? Will it be high-paced with lots of potential for fantasy points to be scored? Does it set up well for one team, both teams, or neither? A running back could go from a lock one week as a home favorite to a complete avoid the next week as a double-digit road underdog because the expected game scripts in these contests are completely different.
Projecting these outcomes can be extremely difficult for one person. We can use the lines and totals to see what oddsmakers think and go from there. A great resource is numberFire's Daily Fantasy Matchup Heat Map, which provides betting related numbers -- implied totals, over/unders, and spreads -- as well as custom metrics that show how the teams will match up against each other. This gives us a much better handle on how games are likely to play out, and we can take advantage of that in our lineups.
Let's look at some game scripts to target for this week.
Tennesse Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Titans are coming off a rough loss to the Cleveland Browns, while the Jaguars lost in overtime last week to the Minnesota Vikings. What we can take away from those games is the fact both defenses are allowing far too many points, and it sets us up for a fantastic game environment. This won't be anything new for these two teams when they meet, as seven of the last 10 games between the two have hit the over, according to KillerSports.
Let's start with the home Jaguars, who haven't looked that bad in recent weeks and now have a soft matchup against this Titans defense. Over the past six games, the Jaguars have scored 20 points or more five times, which is a bit surprising for one of the worst teams in the league.
Regardless of that, quarterback Mike Glennon ($6,600) is very affordable and comes in with 35 and 42 passing attempts in his last two games. This is a trend we should see again this week since the Jaguars are 7.5-point underdogs. While Glennon might not be the best quarterback in the league, the Titans are allowing 22.3 FanDuel points per game to opposing signal-callers, the fifth-most in the league. It's a good matchup -- simple as that.
Wide receiver D.J. Chark ($5,900) is the number-one option for the Jaguars and is too cheap for his potential. Yes, he is coming off a few rough games, but his ceiling is far higher than what he is showing recently. Chark is one of my favorite value plays on the slate, and I went into more detail about him in my values piece. The Glennon-Chark stack is very affordable and will allow you to pay up for anyone you want from the Titans.
Other options on the Jags start with running back James Robinson ($8,000), who has looked great all season but was limited at practice on Wednesday and Thursday. He hasn't missed a game this season, and it appears to be more of a maintenance situation. Robinson comes in with at least19 total touches in six straight games, and considering the Titans are allowing 23.0 FanDuel points per game to opposing running backs -- the seventh-most in the league -- he is in a prime spot to continue producing.
Keelan Cole ($5,100) would be the next best option on the Jaguars and comes in with the second-most targets (66), the second-most receptions (41), and tied for the team-high in touchdowns (4). A three-man stack from the Jaguars is very, very affordable and shouldn't be too popular on this 13-game slate.
The Titans' offense is relatively easy to break down since they have a very condensed set of players who get the ball. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill ($7,900) has frequently shown to have a solid ceiling -- something Glennon hasn't been known for.
We all know the running game for the Titans revolves around Derrick Henry ($9,600), who laid an egg last week with only 5.4 FanDuel points. You should be willing to look past that performance since he has been one of the elite running backs all season, and the matchup versus the Jaguars is very soft. Jacksonville comes in allowing the fifth-most (25.0) FanDuel points per game to opposing running backs, putting Henry in a spot to get back to the production level we know he can reach.
Wide receiver A.J. Brown ($8,000) has been held out of practice the past two days, as he is dealing with an ankle issue, but he is expected to play. Brown ended with only 8.7 FanDuel points last week, but it should've been more. He fumbled the ball right at the goal line and missed out on a touchdown. If he was able to convert that, it would've given him 14 FanDuel points or more in three straight games. With the Jaguars allowing the sixth-most (34.0) FanDuel points per game to opposing wide receivers, you should be willing to go right back to Brown this week.
Corey Davis ($6,800) had his best game of the season last week with 11 receptions, 182 yards, and a touchdown for a total of 29.7 FanDuel points. His role is clearly there, but that was his ceiling. Don't chase a repeat outing.
Starting a Titans stack with Tannehill and then going to some combination of Henry, Brown and Davis will give you plenty of touchdown equity. And considering the Jaguars have cheaper options, you can choose from Chark or Cole to complete a game stack.
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
From the start, I'll say that is one of my favorites games on the entire slate. It has a high over/under, plenty of offensive options on both sides, two teams in the playoff hunt, and two suspect defenses. Also, there really aren't any major injury issues to worry about, so let's jump in.
The Buccaneers are coming off their bye week, and prior to that, they didn't look good. They lost three of their last four games, allowing the opposing teams to score 23 points or more in all four games. The Vikings have vaulted themselves back into the playoff picture by winning five of their last six but have allowed 20 points or more in five of those games.
The one minor injury note for the Buccaneers is wide receiver Mike Evans ($7,300), who missed practice on Thursday but was back on Friday and will play, according to head coach Bruce Arians. This is great considering he leads the team in targets (87) and red zone targets (20) and has five touchdowns in his last five games. Oh, not to mention the fact the Vikings are allowing the second-most (35.5) FanDuel points per game to opposing wide receivers this season.
Evans dynamic partner is none other than Chris Godwin ($7,400), who dealt with a finger injury recently but played in each of the Bucs' last two games and looked great. In those two games, Godwin had 19 targets, 15 receptions, 150 yards, and 1 touchdown. He is back and is a fully viable option this week.
The secondary options for the Buccaneers' offense are tight end Rob Gronkowski ($6,200) and wide receiver Antonio Brown ($6,500). They are both a bit cheaper compared to Evans and Godwin, which would make roster construction easier since there are expensive options on the other side.
The truth is, you can make a case for both Gronkowski and Brown as strong plays. Gronkowski has the second-most (16) red zone targets on the team and looked like his old self prior to the bye week with 6 catches for 106 yards. Brown has been with the team for only four games and has managed 5, 8, 13, and 3 targets in that time. With the Vikings' secondary struggling, Brown could get involved more and find the end zone.
I say all of this and haven't mentioned quarterback Tom Brady ($7,800), who is the QB8 on the season and has nine total touchdowns in his last three games. More importantly, the Buccaneers hold a 64% pass rate this season, which is the fifth-highest in the league, according to SharpFootballStats. Plenty of passing opportunities for the Bucs, plenty of pass-catching options, and plenty of stackability. As you can tell, I'm not mentioning their running backs since they are splitting snaps and no one player is consistently seeing over 10 touches per game.
For the Vikings, their offense is very straightforward as they don't have too many options to consider. The one injury note for them is that tight end Irv Smith Jr. ($5,100) is expected to be back, while tight end Kyle Rudolph ($4,800) is expected to be out.
When I say the Vikings' offense is straightforward, I truly mean it. Their wide receiver duo of Adam Thielen ($7,700) and Justin Jefferson ($7,800) has a 25.97% and 25.37% target share, respectively. Those are the two highest on the team while running back, Dalvin Cook ($10,200) owns the third-highest clip with a 12.84% target share. Those three players account for nearly two-thirds of the targets on the team, making it clear who you need to roster when stacking the Vikings.
Kirk Cousins ($7,500) should be far less popular than Brady is on the other side and is ballin' out right now. Over the last five games, Cousins has posted 18 FanDuel points or more in every single game along with at least two passing touchdowns in every game.
When it comes to players for a game stack, going with Cousins-Thielen-Jefferson shouldn't be too popular in tournaments. You would then need to decide on which of the pass-catchers to roster from the Buccaneers. If you want to start on the other side, Brady-Evans/Godwin-Gronkowski/Brown leaves you with some decisions to make, along with which of Thielen or Jefferson you should bring it back with.
Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Chargers
Do you like offense? Do you like bad defense? If you answered yes to those questions, I have a game stack for you.
The Atlanta Falcons are on the road to take on the Los Angeles Chargers, and the over/under is set at 48.5 with the Chargers a 1.5-point home underdog. The major injury note for this game is that Falcons' wide receiver Julio Jones has been ruled out.
In terms of the pace of play, both teams are in the top six for the fastest teams while in situation neutral game environments. This is great to see, as it should give us plenty of plays being run on both sides.
Falcons' wide receiver Calvin Ridley ($8,100) should be decently popular now that Julio is out. He comes in with 28 targets in his last three games, which is just a glimpse at his team-high 137 targets on the season. RIdley should continue to display that number-one wide receiver role this week.
Russell Gage ($5,500) could be a popular value option at wide receiver, as he should be the other starting wideour. Gage actually has the second-most (77) targets on the Falcons this season since Jones has missed a few games. Tight end Hayden Hurst ($5,500) is also in the conversation this week due to the fact he is averaging a bit more than 5.5 targets per game.
Matt Ryan ($7,300) has struggled in his last three games, with a total of 3 passing touchdowns in that span and fewer than14.9 FanDuel points in each. Not the best from the former MVP, but the Chargers are allowing the sixth-most (21.0) FanDuel points per game to opposing quarterbacks, so it is a good matchup for him.
Please don't consider Todd Gurley ($6,100) just don't do it.
Starting a stack with Ryan and Ridley is the highest-upside option for the Falcons and adding in Gage or Hurst will offer a bit of salary relief.
Now to the Chargers, who looked terrible last week in a 45-0 loss to the New England Patriots.
What was clear last week -- as it has been all season -- is that wide receiver Keenan Allen ($8,500) is the number-one option in the offense. Allen had 11 targets last week, giving him double-digit targets in six of his last seven games. This is an unbelievable spot for Allen as the Falcons are allowing the third-most (35.4) FanDuel points per game to opposing wide receivers. He could go off.
Running back Austin Ekeler ($7,500) has been back for two games, and we've seen two very different games from him -- one game with 25 total touches and 18.4 FanDuel points and the other with 12 total touches and 8.8 FanDuel points. I'm willing to go back to him this week since the game environment is so strong.
Of course, you want to be starting your Chargers stacks with quarterback Justin Herbert ($8,300) since the Falcons are dead last in the league with 24.4 FanDuel points allowed per game to opposing signal-callers. Herbert hasn't been great in his last two games, but this is a good bounce-back spot.
Both Hunter Henry ($5,600) and Mike Williams ($6,100) are quality secondary options while being considerably cheaper than Allen or Ekeler. I like the idea of paying up for a Herbert-Allen-Henry-Ridley game stack, but that could be decently popular. There are 13 games on the slate, so there is plenty of value if you decide to jam in a few higher-priced players.