NFL Analytics: Positional Success Rates Allowed Through Week 13
As fantasy football players, we need to study matchups each and every week.
How exactly to determine the best matchups can be tricky, but rather than look just at yards per carry or passing yards per game allowed, I like to lean on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric in various ways. NEP indicates expected points gained for a team's offense -- or denied by a team's defense.
Here's a good example of why it matters. A 15-yard catch looks great on paper, especially compared to a 5-yard catch. But if the 15-yarder comes on 3rd-and-20, it's not very impactful. If the shorter gain comes on 3rd-and-2, it's a significant play and boosts the offense's scoring expectation. It was a success.
Adding this context can show us which teams defend positions well and which teams may have their traditional stats inflated by plays that don't matter as much as others.
You can view our overall, opponent-adjusted passing and rushing defense numbers on our team rankings page, but here's a breakdown of Success Rates allowed to the various positions across the NFL through Week 13's games.
For defensive purposes, lower success rates and expected points numbers allowed are better. Tables are sorted as such.
Quarterback Pass Defense
| Defense | Passing NEP/ Drop Back |
Rank | Passing Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.08 | 1 | 40.7% | 1 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -0.07 | 2 | 43.3% | 2 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0.14 | 17 | 44.1% | 3 |
| Washington Football Team | 0.01 | 4 | 44.9% | 4 |
| Chicago Bears | 0.12 | 15 | 45.0% | 5 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.07 | 8 | 45.3% | 6 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 0.02 | 5 | 45.8% | 7 |
| Miami Dolphins | -0.06 | 3 | 46.4% | 8 |
| Denver Broncos | 0.07 | 9 | 47.0% | 9 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.06 | 7 | 47.2% | 10 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.05 | 6 | 47.3% | 11 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.12 | 14 | 47.3% | 12 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.15 | 19 | 47.5% | 13 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.07 | 10 | 47.7% | 14 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.14 | 18 | 48.1% | 15 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.12 | 13 | 48.8% | 16 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.17 | 21 | 49.3% | 17 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.20 | 25 | 49.4% | 18 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.21 | 26 | 49.9% | 19 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.23 | 27 | 50.0% | 20 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.13 | 16 | 50.3% | 21 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.20 | 24 | 50.4% | 22 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.16 | 20 | 50.4% | 23 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.19 | 22 | 50.5% | 24 |
| New England Patriots | 0.09 | 12 | 50.6% | 25 |
| New York Giants | 0.08 | 11 | 51.2% | 26 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.20 | 23 | 51.7% | 27 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.27 | 29 | 52.4% | 28 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.28 | 30 | 52.6% | 29 |
| New York Jets | 0.29 | 32 | 53.2% | 30 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.25 | 28 | 53.6% | 31 |
| Houston Texans | 0.28 | 31 | 54.5% | 32 |
| NFL Average | 0.13 | 48.7% |
Running Back Rush Defense
| Defense | Rushing NEP/ Carry |
Rank | Rushing Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -0.15 | 1 | 33.2% | 1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.07 | 6 | 33.6% | 2 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -0.09 | 3 | 34.5% | 3 |
| New York Jets | -0.07 | 5 | 34.9% | 4 |
| Chicago Bears | 0.02 | 17 | 35.5% | 5 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -0.05 | 9 | 35.5% | 6 |
| New Orleans Saints | -0.08 | 4 | 35.7% | 7 |
| Denver Broncos | 0.02 | 14 | 38.5% | 8 |
| New York Giants | 0.05 | 22 | 39.9% | 9 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -0.06 | 7 | 40.3% | 10 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.02 | 16 | 40.7% | 11 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -0.15 | 2 | 40.7% | 11 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.02 | 19 | 41.1% | 13 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.01 | 13 | 41.2% | 14 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.02 | 18 | 41.9% | 15 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.01 | 12 | 42.4% | 16 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.04 | 21 | 42.6% | 17 |
| Washington Football Team | -0.05 | 8 | 42.7% | 18 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -0.04 | 10 | 43.0% | 19 |
| Miami Dolphins | -0.02 | 11 | 43.2% | 20 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.11 | 28 | 43.6% | 21 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.07 | 27 | 44.4% | 22 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.07 | 25 | 45.3% | 23 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0.04 | 20 | 46.0% | 24 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.14 | 31 | 46.6% | 25 |
| Houston Texans | 0.12 | 30 | 46.6% | 25 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.17 | 32 | 46.7% | 27 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.05 | 23 | 47.6% | 28 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.12 | 29 | 48.0% | 29 |
| New England Patriots | 0.07 | 26 | 48.7% | 30 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.06 | 24 | 48.7% | 31 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.02 | 15 | 50.0% | 32 |
| NFL Average | 0.02 | 42.1% |
Receiving Defense vs. Position
(This table is sorted by target success rate allowed to wide receivers.)
| Defense | RB Target Success Rate |
Rank | WR Target Success Rate |
Rank | TE Target Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 43.9% | 11 | 47.7% | 1 | 41.5% | 1 |
| Washington Football Team | 51.6% | 26 | 48.1% | 2 | 55.2% | 16 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 53.8% | 29 | 49.1% | 3 | 59.1% | 24 |
| Miami Dolphins | 57.6% | 31 | 50.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 5 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 38.5% | 4 | 50.6% | 5 | 53.6% | 11 |
| Chicago Bears | 31.4% | 1 | 52.6% | 6 | 53.9% | 13 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 36.8% | 3 | 52.6% | 7 | 50.0% | 5 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 35.3% | 2 | 52.9% | 8 | 61.7% | 29 |
| Green Bay Packers | 59.5% | 32 | 53.1% | 9 | 53.7% | 12 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 43.9% | 10 | 54.1% | 10 | 61.4% | 27 |
| Denver Broncos | 42.2% | 8 | 54.5% | 11 | 57.8% | 22 |
| Buffalo Bills | 48.1% | 17 | 55.0% | 12 | 61.6% | 28 |
| Cleveland Browns | 46.4% | 15 | 55.2% | 13 | 59.0% | 23 |
| New Orleans Saints | 41.8% | 7 | 55.3% | 14 | 44.9% | 3 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 50.8% | 24 | 55.6% | 15 | 51.0% | 8 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 41.4% | 6 | 55.7% | 16 | 63.5% | 31 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 44.6% | 12 | 56.0% | 17 | 50.0% | 5 |
| Carolina Panthers | 50.0% | 21 | 56.3% | 18 | 57.6% | 21 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 48.2% | 18 | 56.3% | 18 | 64.1% | 32 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 50.7% | 23 | 56.7% | 20 | 44.6% | 2 |
| Tennessee Titans | 55.7% | 30 | 56.8% | 21 | 60.8% | 26 |
| New England Patriots | 45.9% | 14 | 56.9% | 22 | 54.5% | 15 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 43.3% | 9 | 57.0% | 23 | 55.4% | 17 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 45.3% | 13 | 57.3% | 24 | 54.4% | 14 |
| New York Giants | 48.5% | 20 | 57.7% | 25 | 62.0% | 30 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 39.3% | 5 | 57.7% | 26 | 55.6% | 18 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 46.6% | 16 | 57.8% | 27 | 57.3% | 20 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 51.6% | 26 | 58.5% | 28 | 48.8% | 4 |
| New York Jets | 51.0% | 25 | 58.7% | 29 | 57.3% | 19 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 51.7% | 28 | 59.1% | 30 | 51.4% | 9 |
| Detroit Lions | 48.2% | 18 | 60.0% | 31 | 51.5% | 10 |
| Houston Texans | 50.0% | 21 | 63.1% | 32 | 60.7% | 25 |
| NFL Average | 46.7% | 55.3% | 55.1% |
