Fantasy Football FAB Report: Week 12
Free agent budget waivers (FAB) are, without a doubt, the way to go. While some leagues are still sticking to the ancient ways of rolling list waivers (yuck) or waiver priority determined by the reverse order of standings (barf), many of the savvy ones are moving over to budgets. It makes sense -- why not give every manager an equal shot at every player? Do you really want to reward people for sucking at fantasy? Okay...rant over.
Every Tuesday evening, I (along with most managers in leagues with FAB waivers) spend countless hours trying to figure out how much to offer for the week's top available players -- which so happens to be exactly what this piece will cover.
Let's get to this week's top players and how much of my budget I'd be willing to offer to acquire them.
(The suggested offers are for 12-team, half-PPR leagues.)
Depending on your scoring and roster formats, how much you should spend at quarterback varies from league to league. If you're in a traditional, four-point-per-touchdown, one-quarterback league, there is rarely an occurrence where you should be spending a big chunk of your budget on the position. However, if you're in a Superflex or straight-up two-quarterback league, that story changes entirely. With that in mind, let's look at this week's top streaming options.
When I refer to quarterbacks points, I'm utilizing Yahoo scoring.
For those who need to stream in Week 12, there are a couple of enticing options. Let's take a look.
Derek Carr (36% rostered) - Following a streak of three consecutive underwhelming performances, Carr dropped 22.6 fantasy points against a Kansas City Chiefs team that ranked fourth in Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play. In Week 12, Carr will get the pleasure of facing an Atlanta Falcons team that ranks fourth-worst in adjusted pass defense and dead last in fantasy points allowed to opposing signal-callers -- the same team that just ceded 24.4 fantasy points to Taysom Hill. Hill's performance this week was the eighth time Atlanta yielded at least 20 points to quarterbacks in a contest. Carr has racked up 20 or more fantasy points five times this season -- he's a high-end streamer this week.
Suggested offer: 2-4%
Taysom Hill (43% rostered) - While Hill ended up being a cheat code in any formats where he was eligible to be used as a tight end, he also ended up being a more-than-respectable streamer at quarterback. In fact, with Monday night's results pending, Hill is currently the QB3 on the week. Hill passed for 233 yards while completing 78.3% of his passes, and he also rushed for 51 yards and 2 scores. While the matchup with the Denver Broncos isn't salivating, it's impossible to ignore the upside Hill showcased in Week 11. And, while Denver does rank 11th-best in adjusted pass defense, they have given up at least 19 fantasy points to six different quarterbacks this season.
Suggested offer: 2-5%
Daniel Jones (28% rostered) - This recommendation is not for the faint of heart. Danny Dimes has as low a floor at the quarterback position as anyone, but he could have a solid ceiling this week. The New York Giants will be taking on the Cincinnati Bengals, who rank 8th-worst in adjusted pass defense and have ceded the 10th-most fantasy points to the quarterback position. Prior to Alex Smith's dud in Week 11, Cincy had conceded an average of 23.5 fantasy points to quarterbacks over their last seven games. Jones has been anything but a reliable fantasy option this season, though he has recorded at least 18.2 fantasy points in three of his last four. He's an acceptable streamer if you're desperate.
Suggested offer: 0-2%
Unlike quarterback, running back is a premier position in almost every format. For that reason, this is a position you'll want to be generous with. Of course, some backs have more value in PPR (point-per-reception) leagues than they do in standard, so be sure to keep that in mind.
If you're hoping for a plethora of available options at the running back position, you're likely going to be sorely disappointed.
James White (40% rostered) - White might just be the only back with a rostership lower than 50% who's worth dusting off the wallet for. With the news that Rex Burkhead might be done with a torn ACL, White could have a very valuable role as the New England Patriots' pass-catching back going forward. Burkhead's injury led to White seeing season-highs in snap share (57%), opportunities (14), and yards (83). Heading into Week 11, Burkhead led the Patriots with 12 red zone carries and was second on the team with 5 targets inside the opposition's 20 -- White had just 4 combined. If he can get a share of those ever-so-valuable touches going forward, he could be a terrific value in fantasy. Of course, be prepared to offer more in any sort of PPR formats.
Suggested offer: 25-33%
Gus Edwards (28% rostered) - News broke on Monday afternoon that both J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram had tested positive for COVID-19, which leaves Edwards as the de facto number one back in the Baltimore Ravens' backfield. In standard or even half-PPR leagues, Edwards will be a no-brainer add as a possible multi-week fill-in. However, it's a bit more complicated in full PPR. Edwards has failed to record a single reception in 27 of his 37 career outings -- that certainly limits his ceiling. That said, Edwards is headed for a significant workload, and he has had a considerable amount of success in his last two outings against the usually-stingy Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh has allowed 87 or more rushing yards to a back 3 times over their last 12 games -- two of those have come at the hands of Edwards.
Suggested offer: 13-15% (up to 20% in standard)
While it may vary based on scoring (standard versus PPR), wideouts are generally valued at similar rates in most formats. However, leagues that require you to start at least three wideouts could see inflated offers at the position.
Wide receiver is where the bread and butter is in Week 12, so be ready to spend a couple of extra bucks here.
Michael Pittman Jr. (44% rostered) - I touted Pittman in the report last week, and you might be able to get another crack at him if you're in one of the 56% of leagues where he's a free agent. Though he saw just three targets in Week 11, Pittman posted 14.1 half-PPR points, this after recording 15.7 the week before. While the rookie was going up against a Green Bay Packers defense that's among the seven least-generous to wideouts this season, his next four outings will be against teams that are all top-12 in fantasy points surrendered to the position.
Suggested offer: 14-17%
Sterling Shepard (45% rostered) - It's not often that you can find a player averaging 7.6 targets per game on the waiver wire in more than half of Yahoo leagues, but here we are. Shepard returned from injury in Week 7 only to have four straight matchups against teams that are top-9 in adjusted pass defense and top-13 in fewest fantasy points allowed to receivers. Now, Shepard will have four matchups with teams that are all among the 11 most generous to the position. Remarkably, Shepard has garnered at least six looks in 21 of his last 22 games, and he's posted 11.4 or more half-PPR points in 7 of his last 16 outings. The 27-year-old can be picked up as a set-and-forget flex play in most PPR formats.
Suggested offer: 12-15%
Other options: If you have balls of steel, you can pick up Nelson Agholor (20% rostered) and chase some upside. In his last five games, Agholor has amassed totals of 19.2, 0.0, 12.5, 1.3, and 17.8 half-PPR points. In order to get the 19-point upside into your lineup, you need to be comfortable with the risk of getting a goose egg. I wouldn't offer anything more than 5-7% for this rollercoaster experience. ... Tim Patrick (21% rostered) has been showered with at least six targets in five of his last six outings, and he's piled up double-digit fantasy outings in five of his last seven. You can certainly do worse in your flex spot. I'd offer up to 7%. ... Breshad Perriman (11% rostered) has amassed 24.6 and 12.4 fantasy points in his last two games, though the latter came on just four targets. Perriman does have a couple of mouthwatering matchups after Week 12's date with the Miami Dolphins, though putting in any significant offer for a player on the New York Jets is akin to just throwing your money into a fire. 2-3% would be my max.
Jordan Reed (15% rostered) is back on the radar after seeing six targets in Week 10. With George Kittle out for an extended period, Reed could be a usable streamer as long as he's healthy. Each of Reed's next four matchups are against teams that have been susceptible to tight end production in 2020. An offer of 2-4% should do it here. ... Dalton Schultz (21% rostered) is also back on the streaming radar with Andy Dalton behind center. Schultz caught 4 of his 6 targets in Week 11 and turned those into 25 yards and a tuddy. Two of his next three matchups are against the 11th- and 4th-most generous teams to tight ends. That said, anything more than 2% for this flyer is not worth it. ... Robert Tonyan (46% rostered) is yet another tight end who's back on our streaming radar for Week 12. The Pack will be going up against the Chicago Bears, who allow the third-fewest fantasy points to wideouts, ninth-fewest to backs, but eighth-most to opposing tight ends. Tonyan will also face a similar Philadelphia Eagles defense in Week 13. As is the case with the aforementioned options, 2-3% should suffice here.