10 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Targets Heading Into Week 12
The fantasy football grind never ever stops, and that's especially true with three games on Thursday for Thanksgiving week.
Whether you're fighting for a playoff spot, looking to clinch a bye, or trying to play spoiler, here are some waiver-wire players worth taking a look at ahead of Week 12.
I'll stick to players rostered on 60% or fewer of Yahoo teams and also list some other viable pickups who may be available in shallower leagues or relevant in only deeper leagues.
Quarterbacks
Taysom Hill, Saints
Roster Percentage: 42%
Taysom Hill was a huge topic of conversation this past week, and he especially becomes relevant in leagues where you can start him at tight end. On Yahoo, you can play him only at quarterback, but he showed us why he's viable as a fantasy quarterback. In Week 12, Hill ran 10 times for 51 yards and 2 touchdowns, giving him that cheat-code status for quarterbacks.
As a passer -- against the NFL's worst adjusted pass defense, mind you -- Hill threw 23 times for 233 yards and no touchdowns. In terms of his Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) number, he was efficient enough. He averaged 0.18 Passing NEP per drop back (NFL average is 0.14). He also was three for three on downfield attempts.
The New Orleans Saints draw the Denver Broncos, which is a much tougher matchup but not one to fear if we can get the rushing prowess of Hill on our teams.
Derek Carr, Raiders
Roster Percentage: 35%
Derek Carr and the Las Vegas Raiders draw the best possible passing matchup: the Atlanta Falcons, who are 32nd in numberFire's adjusted pass defense metrics. Carr's efficiency has been pretty stellar, including 0.52 Passing NEP per drop back against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football in Week 11.
Since Henry Ruggs returned to stretch the field in Week 5, Carr is sitting at 0.24 Passing NEP per drop back albeit for only 222.8 yards per game due to 28.3 attempts per game. The average pass defense the Las Vegas Raiders have faced in that span ranked 10.2 in numberFire's adjusted pass defense metrics. He should be freed up to pick apart the Falcons.
Others to Consider:
Tua Tagovailoa (42%), Kirk Cousins (42%), Daniel Jones (28%), Andy Dalton (9%)
Running Backs
Wayne Gallman, Giants
Roster Percentage: 54%
Wayne Gallman is a curious case on a week where running back additions don't look super appealing. The "others" section has a good number of names to consider, but a lot of them are over the 60% soft cutoff.
Gallman, though, has been viable over the past four games, averaging 14.8 half-PPR points per game in that span. The issue? He's scored five times in that span, and that's not super sustainable.
The good news is that game script projects to be pretty positive against the Cincinnati Bengals and Ryan Finley. Gallman has put forth a 48.1% Rushing Success Rate over the past four games, compared to a 41.7% mark for other New York Giants rushers.
James White, Patriots
Roster Percentage: 40%
James White had little appeal while stuck in a big committee backfield for the New England Patriots, but a knee injury to Rex Burkhead opens the door for White to become more involved.
In Week 11, White played 56% of the team's snaps while the team trailed, which is exactly what you'd want from White. He handled five carries and nine targets, giving him a lot of PPR juice but also keeping him viable in standard leagues due to a floor from receiving yardage.
If he gets the red zone role that Burkhead has had, he'll become a locked-in season-long starter for those thin at running back.
Others to Consider:
J.K. Dobbins (62%), Salvon Ahmed (64%), Myles Gaskin (65%), Jamaal Williams (60%), Zack Moss (62%), La'Mical Perine (34%), Kerryon Johnson (5%)
Wide Receivers
Sterling Shepard, Giants
Roster Percentage: 45%
Sterling Shepard has been a key part of the New York Giants' offense in his four games since returning from injury. He has a 23.9% target share (8.0 targets per game) with 0.8 downfield and 1.3 red zone targets per game, high-leverage targets. He's averaged just 54.8 yards per game in that span, sure, but he's a focal point and has had at least 6 targets in all but one game and has accounted for at least 21.4% of the Giants' targets in his past four games.
The Giants play the Cincinnati Bengals, Seattle Seahawks, Arizona Cardinals, and Cleveland Browns before running into the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16, so there are a lot of appealing matchups for receivers upcoming.
Curtis Samuel, Panthers
Roster Percentage: 43%
Collectively, we're still sleeping too hard on Curtis Samuel. He has 29 targets over the past four games (a 21.8% target share) along with 22.2% of the Carolina Panthers' air yards. What makes him extra viable is his red zone role.
Week 11 did see Samuel snap a seven-game streak with a red zone carry, but he still has eight red zone carries over the past eight games. He had three red zone targets in Week 11, though, and he now has 27.0% of the team's red zone carries and targets over the past five games, second-best among all receivers in that span, trailing only Davante Adams.
Cole Beasley, Bills
Roster Percentage: 51%
The Buffalo Bills didn't play in Week 11, but when we last saw them in Week 10, John Brown left with an ankle injury. If Smokey were to miss time, Beasley stands to benefit.
There have been three games now where Brown has missed or played fewer than 50.0% of the snaps. In those games, Beasley has a 20.5% target share (8.3 per game) with 88.3 yards and 60.7 air yards per game. That comes with 1.0 downfield targets per game and 0.7 red zone targets.
In the two games specifically without Brown, Beasley has a 20.2% target share (9.0 per game) with 82.5 yards per game. Gabriel Davis gets a lot of high-leverage, downfield targets, but Beasley would be a high-floor play without Brown.
Corey Davis, Titans
Roster Percentage: 51%
Corey Davis and A.J. Brown have shared six games together this season. In them, Davis has 44 targets, and Brown has 43. That works out to a 24.6% target share for Davis, and he surprisingly has a higher share of the team's air yards (39.8%) on an 11.9-yard average target depth (compared to 29.3% and 9.0, respectively, for Brown).
The point isn't that Davis is the preferred option to Brown but rather to point out that he does actually have the better overall workload and that we should narrow the gap between the two in the fantasy realm.
Others to Consider:
Jakobi Meyers (59%), Allen Lazard (43%), Deebo Samuel (51%), Michael Pittman Jr. (43%), Josh Reynolds (11%), Laviska Shenault (17%), Denzel Mims (5%), Breshad Perriman (10%), K.J. Hamler (6%)
Tight Ends
Logan Thomas, Football Team
Roster Percentage: 54%
Logan Thomas was a hot early-season waiver-wire addition, and he's trending back toward that status later in the season. Thomas had a mid-season dip in his route rate but is on the upward swing in that department, having run a route on 95.1%, 98.3%, and 100.0% of the team's drop backs over Alex Smith's three starts. He has a viable 14.7% target share in these three games with Smith under center, as well.
Others to Consider:
Austin Hooper (67%), Jordan Reed (14%), Mike Gesicki (60%)
Defense/Special Teams
New York Giants
Roster Percentage: 10%
The New York Giants D/ST is not the most appealing unit overall (there are a few other solid options at higher roster rates listed later), but they have two huge factors going for them: they are coming off a bye, and they will be facing Ryan Finley and the Cincinnati Bengals. Now, the Giants ranked 22nd overall in adjusted defense through Week 11 (including an unbalanced 29th against the pass and 16th against the rush).
But Finley's efficiency has been beyond terrible in his career. In a quarter and a half of replacing Joe Burrow in Week 11, he lost 14.00 Passing NEP on 14 drop backs (yes, 1.00 expected points per drop back came off the board when he was under center). He was sacked on 4 of 14 drop backs. In 2019, he averaged -0.54 Passing NEP per drop back and was sacked on 11.2% of his 98 drop backs.
Others to Consider:
Green Bay D/ST (33% vs. CHI), Dallas D/ST (13% vs. WSH), Seattle D/ST (27% at PHI)
