NFL Weather Report: Week 11
The weather delay in Cleveland to start off Week 10 was a sure sign that the game would be impacted by the elements. With five games projected to have poor weather conditions, I pulled the passing metrics from each to compare against the guidance I provided headed into the weekend.
| Windspeed | Yards Per Attempt |
Neutral Passing Rate |
RZ Passing |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 25 | -0.62 | -16.1% | 0.0% |
| Deshaun Watson | 25 | -3.37 | -10.1% | -8.0% |
| Aaron Rodgers | 23 | +1.46 | +1.7% | -4.7% |
| Jake Luton | 23 | -3.17 | +5.5% | +52.8% |
| Joe Burrow | 21 | -1.57 | +13.8% | +18.3% |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 21 | +0.44 | +9.9% | +16.0% |
Overall, the expectations I set for each team were accurate. Baker Mayfield and Deshaun Watson were clearly hampered by the weather, but the delay actually helped the game environment in Cleveland. Wind speeds were well over 30 mph at 1 PM EST but settled down to 25 mph after the 40-minute postponement. Aaron Rodgers didn’t need to pass as much while in scoring position with Aaron Jones back, but his game was generally unaffected. Finally, the matchup between Joe Burrow and Ben Roethlisberger was primarily about the two offenses as the Steelers were to score on 50% of their offensive drives, forcing the Bengals into a negative script throughout most of the game.
The only other game I highlighted was between the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots. Rainfall did increase to 0.10 inches per hour throughout the game, but the turf and drainage system in Gillette Stadium kept the running game intact for most of the game. Because both teams had nearly 30 rushing attempts each, the game was able to finish before conditions worsened, though both rushing attacks were productive despite the conditions.
Luckily, we get a break in Week 12. No game totals have plummeted due to the weather. We have six games being played inside domes. Plus, there are no games projected to be affected by the wind. With just the rain to consider, let’s dive into the Week 11 slate.
Overview
Below are the games with weather concerns headed into Week 11:
| Game | Temperature (Feels Like) |
Chance of Precipitation |
Wind |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles at Browns | 39 | 58% | 11 mph ESE |
| Steelers at Jaguars | 76 | 48% | 11 mph NE |
Games Impacted by Rain
Philadelphia Eagles (22.25-point implied total) at Cleveland Browns (25.25)
Pittsburgh Steelers (28.25) at Jacksonville Jaguars (17.75)
Let’s start with the basics.
| Condition | Precipitation (inches per hour) |
|---|---|
| Light Rain | .01 - .1 |
| Moderate | .1 - .3 |
| Heavy Rain | >= .3 |
There will come a week when we won’t have to worry about the weather in Cleveland. But it is not this week.
Light rainfall is expected at a rate of 0.05 inches per hour. For context, this level of precipitation should be visible from the network footage. The concern becomes field conditions. Rain is expected throughout the early morning prior to the game. Unlike Gillette Stadium (discussed last week), which features a synthetic playing field, FirstEnergy Stadium has a grass/sod combination that will degrade throughout the game. The effect isn’t predictable, but we’ve seen this before. Weeks 1 and 3 in 2019 featured similar conditions with game-changing slips and costly fumbles that changed the game. Due to its unpredictability, fantasy managers should be able to approach this game without any concern.
The Jaguars’ game carries even less concern. Maximum rainfall is projected 0.02 inches per hour, and it’s only expected to last for two quarters. Jacksonville has a similar playing surface as Cleveland, but on-field accumulation at this rate will be negligible at best. We’ll need to confirm the game’s outlook on Sunday morning, but we should be able to approach this game without any concerns regarding the weather.
