NFL

Fantasy Football: Regression Candidates Through Week 10

Regression is a big deal in fantasy football.

Who doesn't want to get in low on a player whose peripheral data is better than his fantasy point tallies are? Who wouldn't want to trade away a player who is playing way above expectation -- or perhaps avoid him in daily fantasy formats?

Expected regression is something that we can apply both to season-long fantasy football but also daily fantasy, as well.

So, I went through and paired up various parts of our Net Expected Points (NEP) model to help see where the biggest discrepancies are between players' fantasy points and their expected fantasy points.

Keep in mind that NEP correlates really (really) strongly to half-PPR fantasy points, so a lot of players are playing close to their actual fantasy point output. But it's the outliers that we should focus on.

Quarterbacks

Positive Regression Candidates

Player Passing
FP
Exp.
Passing
FP
+/- Rushing
FP
Exp.
Rushing
FP
+/- Total+/-
Philip Rivers 132.8 160.8 -28.0 -0.2 2.8 -3.0 -31.0
Matt Ryan 164.8 189.8 -24.9 12.8 18.8 -6.0 -30.9
Daniel Jones 107.9 126.0 -18.1 44.4 44.6 -0.2 -18.4
Teddy Bridgewater 147.1 166.9 -19.8 37.6 33.4 4.2 -15.6
Joe Burrow 142.4 167.7 -25.3 31.0 20.0 11.0 -14.3
Alex Smith 31.1 40.0 -9.0 0.5 2.3 -1.8 -10.8


This is a very similar list to what we had last week but with a little bit of reshuffling. The reality remains that Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers are more efficient than their fantasy point totals imply. They both play in games with over/unders of 51.0 points this week, meaning we could see them right the ship a little bit. A week ago, Daniel Jones racked up 22.16 FanDuel points to get closer to his expected output, but he still remains on the list.

Joe Burrow had a rough go of it last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers and draws the Washington Football Team this week. Their defense sits 19th in adjusted pass defense based on numberFire's metrics. On the flip side of that game, Alex Smith's chain-moving ways have led to minimal fantasy points despite going for 325 and 390 yards in his two high-usage games. With just one passing touchdown, there's room for growth.

Negative Regression Candidates

Player Passing
FP
Exp.
Passing
FP
+/- Rushing
FP
Exp.
Rushing
FP
+/- Total+/-
Drew Lock 77.9 65.1 12.8 18.5 -2.1 20.6 33.4
Tom Brady 194.6 185.5 9.0 18.8 -2.5 21.3 30.3
Russell Wilson 213.6 175.8 37.8 38.5 46.5 -8.0 29.8
Carson Wentz 119.6 109.8 9.8 50.6 30.8 19.8 29.6
Tua Tagovailoa 40.8 37.2 3.6 3.4 -10.7 14.1 17.7
Lamar Jackson 121.5 112.6 8.9 70.4 64.1 6.3 15.2
Justin Herbert 163.3 156.9 6.4 35.6 31.2 4.4 10.9
Kirk Cousins 142.9 129.7 13.2 5.4 8.4 -3.0 10.2


For as unproductive as Drew Lock usually is, the data is so much worse. The garbage-time showing against the Atlanta Falcons two weeks ago (313 yards and 2 touchdowns on 48 attempts plus 7 carries for 47 yards and a score) didn't return on similar volume against the Oakland Raiders in Week 10: 257 yards and 1 touchdown on 47 attempts with just 2 rushes for 7 yards -- and 5 turnovers. The underlying stats reminded us not to chase Lock even in promising matchups.

Tom Brady has three rushing touchdowns to boost his otherwise non-existent rushing. As a passer, he's pretty much on point with expectation.

I mentioned last week that we shouldn't worry about Russell Wilson, and maybe that was premature. Wilson's NEP data is insanely good, but his touchdown rate is coming back to earth. That's not to imply Wilson will be bad moving forward, but he may not be quite as good as he had been to start the year. We'll learn a lot about him in a shootout on Thursday night.

Running Backs

Positive Regression Candidates

Name Actual
FP
Expected
FP
+/-
Frank Gore 47.4 76.2 -28.8
Joshua Kelley 60.9 85.6 -24.7
Kareem Hunt 129.9 148.8 -18.9
Latavius Murray 65.2 82.2 -17.0
Myles Gaskin 85.5 101.3 -15.8
Austin Ekeler 53.7 69.5 -15.8
Darrell Henderson 97.3 110.1 -12.8
Tevin Coleman 9.9 21.9 -12.0
Alec Ingold 20.4 32.3 -11.9
Damien Harris 56.7 68.0 -11.3
Cam Akers 21.9 32.4 -10.5
Joe Mixon 91.1 101.5 -10.4
Le'Veon Bell 22.8 33.2 -10.4


As discussed last week, the positive regression candidates at running back are going to be (and should be) backs with volume who haven't really produced. This is that list, effectively. None of these names are overly appealing from a daily fantasy standpoint, aside from -- perhaps -- Joe Mixon. Mixon (if healthy) will face a top-10 adjusted rush defense this week (Washington).

Because this list is mostly part-time players or players in bad offenses, a more fun regression notation is strictly touchdowns. Frank Gore (-3.0), Damien Harris (-2.7), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (-2.6), Devin Singletary (-2.2), and Kareem Hunt (-2.0) are all at least two scores from expectation. So perhaps Harris should be the guy to hone in on here. He has three 100-yard games rushing but only a single touchdown. The primary issue for him is that he has just two targets on the full season, but a multi-touchdown game isn't out of the realm of possibility for Harris sooner rather than later.

Negative Regression Candidates

Name Actual
FP
Expected
FP
+/-
Ronald Jones 128.4 79.7 48.7
Melvin Gordon 92.6 51.4 41.2
Antonio Gibson 118.8 79.6 39.2
Dalvin Cook 202.3 174.9 27.4
Alvin Kamara 212.9 187.6 25.3
Mike Davis 115.0 90.4 24.6
Nick Chubb 79.3 55.7 23.6
Todd Gurley 127.8 108.9 18.9
Nyheim Hines 96.7 78.9 17.8
Jordan Howard 27.5 10.6 16.9
Wayne Gallman 71.5 56.4 15.1
Aaron Jones 128.4 114.2 14.2
Miles Sanders 93.0 79.5 13.5
D'Andre Swift 112.1 99.4 12.7
Chris Carson 100.1 87.7 12.4


When you run for a 98-yard touchdown, you're going to outperform your fantasy point expectation. That's what happened to Ronald Jones this week. But the crazy thing is that he isn't really off-base from a rushing standpoint -- it's the inefficiency receiving that makes him an outlier. He's actually lost expected points on his catches. The same applies to Melvin Gordon. That's pretty hard to do.

Antonio Gibson is an interesting addition to the list, particularly so close to the top. The number of successful rushes plus expected points as a receiver correlate really strongly to fantasy points at the running back position. Gibson ranks 17th in rushing successes but is 10th in rushing fantasy points; in total, he's 3.6 touchdowns above expectation. If the touchdowns dry up and all else stay equal (particularly losing an insane amount of receiving volume to J.D. McKissic), Gibson will take a step back in the fantasy point column. Exercise some caution.

Wide Receivers

Positive Regression Candidates

Player Actual
FP
Expected
FP
Total
+/-
Tyler Boyd 110.5 132.5 -22.0
Danny Amendola 55.1 72.0 -16.9
Kendrick Bourne 58.3 72.4 -14.1
Travis Fulgham 83.3 97.1 -13.8
Julian Edelman 42.0 55.7 -13.7
Jarvis Landry 62.8 76.1 -13.3
D.J. Moore 117.1 130.1 -13.0
Cole Beasley 109.7 122.0 -12.3
Jakobi Meyers 49.3 61.2 -11.9
Julio Jones 103.3 113.9 -10.6
John Brown 65.1 75.5 -10.4
Calvin Ridley 123.2 133.5 -10.3
Chris Godwin 70.2 80.2 -10.0


Tyler Boyd was the poster boy for regression last week, and he could be there again this week. He's 2.1 touchdowns off his expected mark, a bottom-five number among all receivers. The others ahead of him are Robby Anderson (-2.9), Jarvis Landry (-2.8), Danny Amendola (-2.7), and Jakobi Meyers (-2.2).

Travis Fulgham climbed up this list by a few points. He's been so efficient and hasn't had touchdown issues, but the inefficiency from Carson Wentz has bogged him down a bit. Because Reception NEP ties so closely to fantasy points, we should just expect more from Fulgham.

Negative Regression Candidates

Player Actual
FP
Expected
FP
Total
+/-
Robert Woods 91.8 66.3 25.5
Adam Thielen 126.8 104.4 22.4
Davante Adams 158.6 136.4 22.2
DeAndre Hopkins 146.0 128.9 17.1
Darnell Mooney 63.6 48.6 15.0
Diontae Johnson 85.1 70.2 14.9
Tyler Lockett 139.1 124.4 14.7
Greg Ward 64.7 50.1 14.6
Chase Claypool 108.1 94.3 13.8
Demarcus Robinson 44.5 31.8 12.7
Mike Evans 119.4 106.9 12.5
Robby Anderson 114.5 102.9 11.6
Allen Robinson 125.0 114.0 11.0
Christian Kirk 92.2 81.2 11.0
A.J. Brown 99.6 89.0 10.6


We should really be worried about Robert Woods. No receiver has outperformed fantasy point expectations (just from receiving) more than Woods, and he (17.1%) has been surpassed by Josh Reynolds (18.1%) in target market share since Week 5. The arrow is way down on Woods.

Adam Thielen scored twice last week and is now up to nine touchdowns. That's 5.0 touchdowns above expectation based on his peripheral data. Part of that can be explained away by his role within the offense, sure, but he's the only receiver above 4.0 and just one of five total above 3.0 (the others being Mike Evans [3.9], Tyreek Hill [3.8], Davante Adams [3.7], and Chase Claypool [3.4]).

Does this suggest that we should trade Thielen (or Adams, Evans, or Hill) at their peaks? Not exactly, no. But when it comes to building daily fantasy lineups, it's probably smart to expect touchdown rate to cool off for some of these studs. That can give us a ton of leverage.

Tight Ends

Positive Regression Candidates

Player Receiving
FP
Exp.
Receiving
FP
Total
+/-
George Kittle 77.9 96.0 -18.1
Austin Hooper 39.1 50.9 -11.8
Greg Olsen 36.9 45.5 -8.6
Logan Thomas 62.2 70.4 -8.2
Travis Kelce 141.9 146.7 -4.8
Mo Alie-Cox 51.3 55.9 -4.6
Anthony Firkser 43.4 47.6 -4.2


There's not a whole lot we'll see with tight ends. The lack of yardage from the position as a whole really means that regression pinpoints the biggest touchdown outliers -- for the most part. Austin Hooper is 1.3 scores off his expected pace and Anthony Firkser is 1.2 off his expected pace. As mentioned last week, George Kittle (get well soon) and Travis Kelce are so much more efficient on elevated volume than other tight ends that they kind of operate at their own pace.

I'd like to throw Evan Engram here, as well. He's 1.8 touchdowns shy of expectation, but the actual fantasy points he has accumulated are about equal to expectation. I can't quit him.

Negative Regression Candidates

Player Receiving
FP
Exp.
Receiving
FP
Total
+/-
Chris Herndon 17.1 -1.7 18.8
Darren Waller 93.5 77.0 16.5
Jimmy Graham 77.7 64.4 13.3
Jared Cook 62.4 51.9 10.5
Gerald Everett 42.5 32.1 10.4
Noah Fant 66.2 56.4 9.8
Dallas Goedert 33.6 26.3 7.3


Chris Herndon has lost expected points on his catches, the only tight end with at least five catches to do so. In fact, among 30 tight ends with at least 25 targets, his -2.69 Reception NEP is 13.73 points shy of the next worst output (Dallas Goedert at 11.04).

I mentioned this last week, but Darren Waller has 77 targets, and Kelce has 79. Despite that, Kelce has effectively doubled-up Waller in Reception NEP (70.06 to 35.93). Waller's hollow volume (by comparison) bested him last week with just 37 yards on 5 targets.