NFL

2020 NFL Power Rankings: Week 11

Jerome Yurchisin  —  @MathWithJerome Nov 19th, 2020

We may have seen the play of the year in Arizona, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers bounce back from last week’s embarrassment, and the division races are heating up (especially in the wild NFC East).

Let’s see how last week’s action shook up our rankings.

Risers and Fallers

After hanging tough with the Kansas City Chiefs for four quarters in Week 9, the Carolina Panthers lost handily to the Buccaneers, who outscored them 29-6 in the second half. The loss cost the Panthers six spots in our rankings (18th) and 2.71 points in their nERD rating.

While the Panthers’ upcoming matchup against the Detroit Lions (29th) could help them get back on the winning track, quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is dealing with a knee injury and Christian McCaffrey is not able to practice.

The Minnesota Vikings' win over the Chicago Bears fueled the largest jump up our boards this week, moving them up five spots to 12th. Dalvin Cook has been a huge factor in the Vikings’ three-game winning streak, during which the passing game also significantly picked up.

Weeks Rush NEP per Play Pass NEP per Play Interceptions Sacks Allowed
1-7 0.09 0.17 10 14
8-10 0.09 0.45 1 3


Minnesota's offensive line protecting Kirk Cousins, and in turn, Cousins protecting the football, contributed to their rise over the last few weeks.

Here are our Week 11 NFL Power Rankings:

Teams Ranked 32nd to 23rd

Rank Team nERD Record Playoff Odds Rank Change Off. NEP Rank Def. NEP Rank
32 New York Jets -15.12 0-9 0.00% 0 32 28
31 Jacksonville Jaguars -12.32 1-8 0.00% 0 29 30
30 Dallas Cowboys -8.68 2-7 8.40% 0 27 29
29 Detroit Lions -6.85 4-5 4.40% -1 16 32
28 New York Giants -6.08 3-7 21.20% 1 25 24
27 Houston Texans -5.99 2-7 0.80% 0 18 31
26 Denver Broncos -5.93 3-6 0.30% 0 31 8
25 Philadelphia Eagles -5.8 3-5-1 49.20% -2 28 18
24 Cincinnati Bengals -4.79 2-6-1 0.20% 1 20 26
23 Atlanta Falcons -4.12 3-6 0.70% -1 17 27


How bad are our bottom-ranked New York Jets? Their median point differential this season is -18, meaning they lose by at least 18 points half the time. The Jacksonville Jaguars holds the next-worst median differential at -8.0.

The New York Giants’ (ranked 28th) victory over the Philadelphia Eagles (25th) gave them their second division win in as many weeks -- technically a winning streak. The loss drops the Eagles’ playoff odds to 49.2%, according to numberFire’s model.

Teams Ranked 22nd to 13th

Rank Team nERD Record Playoff Odds Rank Change Off. NEP Rank Def. NEP Rank
22 Cleveland Browns -3.86 6-3 41.10% 2 19 22
21 Washington Football Team -2.01 2-7 21.30% -1 26 12
20 Chicago Bears -0.67 5-5 17.00% -2 30 4
19 New England Patriots -0.66 4-5 12.50% 2 21 16
18 Carolina Panthers -0.36 3-7 1.40% -6 8 23
17 Las Vegas Raiders 0.66 6-3 68.10% 2 7 20
16 Tennessee Titans 1.29 6-3 66.20% -3 3 25
15 Seattle Seahawks 1.37 6-3 89.70% -1 5 21
14 Buffalo Bills 1.45 7-3 83.30% 1 6 19
13 Indianapolis Colts 1.98 6-3 69.80% 3 23 7


The Buffalo Bills come in at 14, rising one spot after a last-second defeat against the Arizona Coyotes. Bills receivers Cole Beasley and Stefon Diggs finished Week 10 leading all other receivers in Reception Successes, netting 11 and 8 such catches, respectively.

The Indianapolis Colts doubled up the Tennessee Titans 34-17, moving the Titans down three spots to 16th and the Colts up three spots to 13th.

Regression has come this season for Tennessee’s A.J. Brown, who was the yards after catch (YAC) champion last season. His yards after catch per reception is down two yards (8.8 to 6.8) this season, while his targeted air yards are also down 2.6 yards (13.4 to 10.8).

Teams Ranked 12th to 1st

Rank Team nERD Record Playoff Odds Rank Change Off. NEP Rank Def. NEP Rank
12 Minnesota Vikings 2.13 4-5 41.50% 5 14 13
11 San Francisco 49ers 2.29 4-6 6.20% -1 13 11
10 Arizona Cardinals 2.79 6-3 70.70% -1 9 17
9 Miami Dolphins 2.83 6-3 64.20% -1 24 5
8 Los Angeles Chargers 2.95 2-7 1.10% 3 15 9
7 Green Bay Packers 5.84 7-2 97.60% -1 2 15
6 New Orleans Saints 6.17 7-2 95.80% 1 4 14
5 Pittsburgh Steelers 6.39 9-0 99.70% -1 11 6
4 Baltimore Ravens 7.12 6-3 93.60% -3 22 1
3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7.66 7-3 90.80% 2 10 2
2 Los Angeles Rams 7.7 6-3 84.20% 1 12 3
1 Kansas City Chiefs 7.93 8-1 99.30% 1 1 10


While the Cardinals did pull off a miraculous win, they fell one spot in our rankings this week to number 10. They hit the road for a highly anticipated Thursday night game against the Seattle Seahawks.

NFL odds has the Seahawks favored by 3.0 points, and the difference in nERD rating between these two teams is a mere 1.42 points -- the second-closest matchup this week.

Every game the Los Angeles Chargers play seems to be extremely close. They have the lowest variability in point differential among all teams this season. So far, the Chargers’ largest margin of victory was 10 points, and the largest margin of defeat was 7. That 10-point win over Jacksonville was their only game this season decided by more than one possession.

The Baltimore Ravens drop to fourth in our rankings after their rain-soaked loss to the New England Patriots. However, the average nERD rating for teams remaining on their schedule is the lowest in the league at -4.01.

Our third-ranked Buccaneers are hosting the second-ranked Los Angeles Rams on Monday night, which should be a fantastic game to end the week. FanDuel Sportsbook has the Buccaneers as 3.5-point favorites, but the nERD rating gap for this game is a razor-thin 0.04 points.