NFL

Fantasy Football: 3 Players You Can Drop After Week 10

We’re finally at the end of the prescheduled byes. With the last four teams set to be off in Week 11, our only concern for roster space will be Carolina and Tampa Bay in Week 13. It’ll allow us to prepare for the playoffs with a bit more flexibility, but we still have to make some tough decisions after Week 10. Let’s review last week’s drop targets to see if there’s any value to salvage and get into this week’s targets to help churn your roster.

Quick Review

Again, this is the one column I write where I hope I’m wrong from time to time. Cutting a player is never an easy decision unless a definite reason presents itself (e.g. injury). I’ll always take a look back to either confirm my previous read on the situation or find some hope for a player to stay on your squad.

Matthew Stafford – The matchup proved to be just what Stafford needed to post his highest fantasy total on the season. Facing the Washington Football Team, who was 16th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per Play entering Week 10, Stafford threw three touchdowns for the third time this season. With Kenny Golladay out, Stafford connected with eight different pass catchers to stabilize the passing game and propel him to the QB6. With another decent matchup in Week 11 (at the Carolina Panthers), Stafford does have some appeal as a QB2 moving forward.

Joshua Kelley – The Los Angeles Chargers' backfield was reduced to just Kalen Ballage and rookie Kelley in Week 10, but the first-year player was still relegated to backup duties. Kelley saw just 27% of the backfield snaps earning just seven touches and was not a factor in the passing game. After being quickly surpassed by a recently-signed veteran, it’s clear Kelley has a long way to go before belonging on our fantasy rosters.

Henry Ruggs – Apparently, Ruggs just needs the competitive game script to hit as a fantasy asset, and Week 10 was not it. The Las Vegas Raiders blew out the Denver Broncos by four touchdowns and they all came on the ground. When Derek Carr only throws for 154 yards on just 25 attempts, Ruggs’ fantasy value quickly evaporates. The Raiders do face the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11 giving fantasy managers some hope, but it’s a longshot at best.

Potential Drop Candidates

Jared Goff, QB, Rams

Yahoo! Roster Percentage: 80%

Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams’ passing game had the best matchup coming into Week 10. The Seattle Seahawks (eighth-highest Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per Play after Week 10) had given up two or more touchdowns through the air in every game except in Week 2. Quarterbacks were averaging over 300 yards against Seattle’s secondary over their last four games. It was the perfect set up.

The good news was that Goff did exceed 300 yards passing (302), but he failed to throw a single passing touchdown against one of the league’s worst passing defenses. Los Angeles ran the ball on 66.7% of their plays inside the 20-yard line, further capping Goff’s ability to put up QB1 (top-12) numbers. Even worse, this isn’t an anomaly for the Rams. Prior to Week 10, the Rams were in the bottom 10 for both passing in neutral situations and red-zone passing rate.

Without Goff not adding any value on the ground, he should join the rest of the matchup-based starters currently out on the wire.

Adrian Peterson, RB, Lions

Yahoo! Roster Percentage: 48%

It might an overreaction, but Adrian Peterson’s role reversal and the success of D'Andre Swift in his first ceremonial start isn’t a good sign for Peterson.

Swift had already taken over the majority share of the backfield snaps, but he dominated in Week 10. Peterson saw just 15% of the snaps in the first half against Washington and managed just 5 touches against his former team. Meanwhile, Swift handled 76.2% of the rushing attempts, earned a 15.6% target share, and totaled 149 scrimmage yards.

Peterson's two touches while Detroit was in scoring position may give him value in short-yardage situations in the future, but he’s lost any remaining value as an RB3 or FLEX.

Jarvis Landry, WR, Browns

Yahoo! Roster Percentage: 82%

The peripherals all look great for Jarvis Landry. Since Odell Beckham went down with an ACL injury, Landry has led the team in target share (32%) with an average depth of target (aDOT) (8.2) that favors the Cleveland Browns’ passing game. However, it hasn’t translated into fantasy production. Landry hasn’t been in the top 24 since Week 4, and the issue is directly connected to how the Browns operate in the red zone.

Cleveland entered Week 10 with the fifth-lowest passing rate while in scoring position, and the high winds this past Sunday didn’t help. With just two trips to the red zone, Baker Mayfield attempted only a single pass (to Kareem Hunt). In addition, Rashard Higgins has become a larger factor in Cleveland, surpassing Landry’s share of the total air yards in an already anemic passing game.

The Browns do have a favorable schedule moving forward (Philadelphia Eagles, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Tennessee Titans), but other options out on the wire should be considered prior to holding Landry as we get closer to the playoffs.

Trend to Note

James Conner, RB, Steelers

Yahoo Roster Percentage: 99%

James Conner has now finished with single-digit fantasy points in back-to-back weeks, causing an outcry throughout the fantasy community. Through the first seven weeks of the season, Conner’s 15.8 PPR points per game were 15th in the league across all running backs, but he’s stumbled as of late. He dropped to an average 52% snap rate in Weeks 8 and 9 but still maintained a 76.3% touch rate as we watched both Benny Snell Jr. and Anthony McFarland Jr. mix in during key situations.

While Conner’s absence on the field is the cause of much speculation, the real issue is how the Pittsburgh Steelers’ offense is operating. In Week 1 through Week 7, Pittsburgh had an average passing rate of just 46.6% inside the 20-yard line. It’s what gave Conner his 21 red zone attempts during that span. Since then, he’s had just five red zone rushing attempts with only a single touchdown.

The shift on offense (e.g. Chase Claypool rushing attempts and short passes to JuJu Smith-Schuster) has depleted Conner’s value, and he's posting just 8.6 PPR points per game over the last two weeks -- both of which were matchups that looked ideal on paper. The Steelers have a tough schedule ahead for running backs (Jacksonville, Baltimore Ravens, Washington), which may limit Conner even more as we enter the fantasy playoffs.