4 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 10
On the Week 10 FanDuel main slate, there are eight games with an over/under of at least 48.5 points, which makes for some nice team and games stacks across the league. There are also 10 teams implied to score at least 26.0 points this week, which should lead to some high-scoring players.
In this article, I will reflect my favorite DFS stacks for this week. These decisions are made by using player projections, Vegas implied team totals and player draft percentage projections.
The first stack I like this week is a Buffalo Bills stack with Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. The Bills are heading into Arizona this week to play the Cardinals in what could be a very high-scoring game. The over/under is currently at 56.5 points, tops on this week’s main slate.
After a four-game slump, Allen found his groove once again last week against the Seattle Seahawks. He totaled 415 passing yards, three touchdown passes and one rushing touchdown, which translated in 36 FanDuel points. This week he should have another nice game against a Cards defense that has allowed opponents to score 30-plus points in back-to-back games.
Per our numbers, Allen is projected to score the second most points at the quarterback position this week. He also offers the second-best point-per-dollar value as the position.
The Bills have scored 28 offensive touchdowns so far this season, and Allen has been involved on 24 of them. He thrown 19 passing touchdowns and has five rushing touchdowns. In a game that could shoot out, he offers a great ceiling.
Stacking up Allen up with Diggs is the play for me this week. Diggs has been targeted on 29.3% of Allen’s passes, which not only leads the team but also ranks third in the league. He also has 972 air yards, which is the fourth most in the NFL.
Per Pro Football Focus, Diggs is expected to be shadowed by Cardinals’ cornerback Patrick Peterson. While Peterson is one of the most respected corners in the league, he’s not quite the shutdown guy he used to be. PFF is giving Diggs a 15% advantage in this matchup.
And just like Allen, Diggs’ projections are pretty sweet for this matchup. Per our numbers, Diggs is expected to be the fourth highest-scoring wide receiver. He’s also projected in the top five among wideouts in receptions, yards and targets.
Green Bay Packers
This may be obvious, but I’m going with Aaron Rodgers and his favorite weapon, Davante Adams.
With a slate-leading 31.75-point implied team total this week, the Green Bay Packers are set to dominate the Jacksonville Jaguars at Lambeau. They’re currently favored to win this game by 13.5 points with the Jags rolling out rookie quarterback Jake Luton in just his second NFL start.
Rodgers should be able to take command of this game early and have his way with the Jags' defense, a unit surrendering an average of 30.9 points per game, the second most in the NFL. They’re also allowing a very generous 23.4 FanDuel points per game to opposing quarterbacks, which is the third most in the league.
Outside of his Week 5 dud against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Rodgers has been lights out this season. In every other game, he’s thrown for over 240 passing yards and multiple touchdowns, which has translated to an average of 26.05 FanDuel points per game.
The Packers are also expected to get back left tackle David Bakhtiari, which is a huge boost for Rodgers and this offense. PFF grades Bakhtiari as the fourth best tackle in the league.
Pairing Rodgers with Adams is an obvious move this week -- but rightfully so. If we look at only his full, healthy games, Adams is averaging 27.38 FanDuel points per game. Even counting the injury-shortened game against the Detroit Lions, Adams still leads this slate's receivers in FanDuel points per game by a shade more than five points.
He’s scored eight touchdowns in 5.5 games and has topped 100 receiving yards in three games. He also leads the league with a 34.1% target share and 13 red zone targets. As you might expect, he currently sits at the top our projections FanDuel points at the wide receiver position. No other wide receiver has a better probability to score a touchdown this week, either.
And while this stack may very well be chalky, it may also be one you don’t want to miss out on. If you want to differentiate this stack, I like the idea of adding Aaron Jones into the mix with Rodgers and Adams. That would give you a chance to double-up on multiple occasions and get a piece of every Green Bay score.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Las Vegas Raiders are projected to be one of the top scoring teams this week, as they are set to host the Denver Broncos. I like stacking Derek Carr and Darren Waller as a way to take advantage of this spot.
The Raiders are implied to score 27.50 points in this game, the sixth most on the main slate. Any time a team is projected to score near or above four touchdowns, they’re worth looking at for tournament stacks. It also helps when they are not a popular play, which should be the case with Carr and Waller.
Carr usually plays conservatively, which is a worry for his DFS ceiling. However, he’s quietly thrown for multiple touchdowns in six of eight games this season and for more than 260 passing yards five of eight. He’s averaging 17.9 FanDuel points per game and has shown a ceiling score of 24.98 points.
Per our algorithm, Carr offers the third best FanDuel value among signal callers. You get him at a relatively modest salary going against a Broncos defense that has allowed 35.7 points per game over their last three games, the second most in that time.
Considering the Raiders haven’t been a shutdown defense, either, this game could turn into a shootout. Vegas has allowed 33.0 points per game in home games. If the Broncos can keep this game close, that would only benefit Carr and the Raiders' passing weapons.
Waller has clearly been Carr’s favorite target so far in 2020. Waller’s 29.0% target share is a team-best clip, and it's also tops among all tight ends across the league. He also leads all tight ends with 14 red zone targets (38.9% share). The amount of opportunity this guy has seen this season is hard to ignore.
He’s already scored a career-high four touchdowns and is seeing a healthy 8.9 targets per game. Per our projections, no other tight end is expected to score more points than Waller this week. He tops the tight end projections in every single category: point-per-dollar value, receptions, receiving yards, targets and touchdowns. Needless to say, we’re expecting a solid game out of him.
Per PFF, Waller is expected to see a lot of Broncos’ linebacker Josey Jewell. Jewell has been solid this season, but Waller shouldn’t have any issue getting separation from him. PFF is currently giving Waller a 27% advantage, which is tied as the third best tight end matchup in Week 8. Waller has a five-inch height advantage and 20-pound size advantage over the linebacker.
Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks
The last stack that I like this week is a game stack between the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks. This is a divisional game with an over/under of 54.5 points that could end up being the highest-scoring game on the main slate. Why? Well that’s just how Seattle games have gone so far in 2020. In their eight games this season, the 'Hawks and their opponents have combined for the following point totals: 63, 65, 69, 54, 53, 71, 64 and 78. I suspect we might see that trend continue this week.
For this game, I like using Jared Goff and Cooper Kupp from the Rams side and then running it back with Tyler Lockett. Attacking this Seattle defense with the opposing team’s passing game has been a recipe for success so far this season, so why stop now?
The Seahawks' defense has allowed their opponents to score an average of 30.4 points per game through eight games, which is the third most in the NFL. In their last three games, Seattle has allowed a league-worst 36.0 points per game. Quarterbacks and wide receivers have thrived against this Seattle secondary, as no other team has allowed more FanDuel points per game to either position.
Per our numbers, Goff paces the slate in passing yards, and he's also one of the better point-per-dollar values. Seattle has allowed every quarterback they’ve played against this season to throw for more than 300 yards passing or for multiple touchdowns. If the touchdowns go Goff's way, he can have a huge game.
I like pairing Goff with Kupp. Both Kupp and Robert Woods have seen their fair share of work this season, but it’s Kupp who has the best matchup this week in the slot.
Per PFF, Kupp is expected to lineup against Seattle slot cornerback, Ugo Amadi, who has been injured the past two weeks. PFF is giving Kupp a 30% advantage in this matchup, which ranks as the fourth best advantage among all wide receivers. Should Amandi miss Week 10, Kupp will get an even better matchup against third-stringer D.J. Reed. Either way, Kupp should dominate.
Lockett is the run-it-back piece I like most from the Seahawks.
Lockett has a better matchup than D.K. Metcalf does. He is expected to line up against Rams’ slot corner Troy Hill. Lockett will have the luxury of avoiding outside cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and Darious Williams, both of whom rank amongst the best corners in the NFL this season. PFF is giving Lockett a 31% advantage over Hill, the second biggest wide receiver advantage in Week 10.
Griffin Swanson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Griffin Swanson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username GriffDogg_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. (edited)