4 NFL FanDuel Tournament Pivots for Week 10

If you've played daily fantasy sports for a while, you realize by now the importance of being contrarian, especially in large-field tournaments. Being able to recognize which players are going to be owned by the majority of the field -- and to find players who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership -- can help separate you from your opponents.

The purpose of this article will be to identify some players who will be the chalk at each position and how you can pivot off of them with high-upside options who could go overlooked.

Let's take a look at pivot options for Week 10.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

FanDuel Salary: $8,400

With the Bills-Cardinals and Seahawks-Rams games showing easily the highest totals on the slate at 56.5 and 54.5 points, respectively, the four quarterbacks from those contests figure to be the most popular passers, and rightfully so. It's easy to like Kyler Murray ($8,800), Josh Allen ($8,700), and Russell Wilson ($8,900), who have all demonstrated tournament-winning ceilings several times this season, while Jared Goff ($7,400) makes for an enticing value play against Seattle's poor defense.

It'll be hard to stray from those four, but if you're looking for a potential fifth option, Aaron Rodgers is one to consider.

The Packers have the slate's highest implied team total (31.50), as they're favored by nearly two touchdowns against the Jaguars. Jacksonville has been a glorious matchup for opposing passers, ranking 30th in schedule-adjusted pass defense, per numberFire's metrics, and allowing the third-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks.

Although Rodgers doesn't possess the rushing upside of other top quarterbacks, he's still shown an elite ceiling this season, exceeding 28 FanDuel points three times. He's been incredibly efficient, leading all signal-callers in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back, with only Patrick Mahomes coming anywhere close.

But part of the reason Rodgers probably won't be super popular is that this game is expected to see sustained winds above 20 MPH, which would put a potential damper on the passing game.

Although high winds are obviously a negative, weather is always tricky in DFS, as it's often a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. Sometimes it can crush a game environment, while other times it seemingly has no effect at all.

That's a risk we can be willing to take in tournaments, though, and the good news is that while the total in this game has dipped, it's promising that Green Bay's implied total remains so high.

Also, the last time we saw these conditions at Lambeau in Week 8 against Minnesota, Rodgers still performed well, posting 291 yards and 3 scores for 22.5 FanDuel points. No, it wasn't a GPP-winning score, but with both teams combining for 50 points that week, it's clear the winds didn't hamper the offenses too much.

And while there's also blowout risk to this game, Jacksonville seemed to get a boost from rookie quarterback Jake Luton last week, which should hopefully keep things more competitive. Rodgers is also an easy player to stack, with both Davante Adams ($9,500) and Aaron Jones ($8,800) being fantastic plays themselves.

Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders

FanDuel Salary: $7,500

Between high-end options Alvin Kamara ($9,000) and Aaron Jones, the return of Miles Sanders ($7,700), and value opening up through guys like Mike Davis ($5,400) and Duke Johnson ($5,800), there are plenty of appealing ways to go at running back this week.

That leads me to think that Josh Jacobs won't see as high a roster percentage, particularly since he hasn't exceeded 20 FanDuel points since Week 5 and has only done so twice all season. This also isn't a terribly exciting matchup against Denver, which ranks 10th in adjusted run defense.

Still, Jacobs gets boatloads of opportunities in positive game scripts, and if we exclude last week -- when Jacobs was a late addition to the injury report and presumably wasn't 100% -- he's averaged 26.5 carries and 3.3 targets per game in the other four Las Vegas wins. The Raiders are favored by 4.5 points over the Broncos, so a Las Vegas victory should be expected.

He's also the Raiders' top option in the red zone, as he has the league's third-most red-zone carries (33) and fifth-most carries inside the 10-yard line (17).

This game also has some sneaky shootout potential, showing a 50.5 total that's tied for third-best on the board.

It might be hard to trust Jacobs after several underwhelming fantasy performances this season -- especially considering his modest passing-game work -- but there's a path to a high ceiling here. In Brandon Gdula's Week 10 simulations, Jacobs projects for the third-highest chance of hitting 20-plus FanDuel points (behind only Kamara and Jones).

Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints

FanDuel Salary: $8,500

Davante Adams has been destroying everything in his path this season, so he will surely be popular regardless of the weather in Green Bay, and you know the wideouts on the Bills, Cardinals, Seahawks, and Rams should also garner their share of attention.

That should lead most folks away from Michael Thomas, especially with a high-salaried Kamara being the Saints player most will gravitate toward instead.

Despite Drew Brees eviscerating Tampa Bay for four touchdowns in Week 9, Thomas didn't make a whole lot of noise in his return to action, catching 5 of 6 targets for 51 yards. However, due to the blowout nature of the contest, he played on just 54.8% of the snaps, so we probably shouldn't read too much into his final line.

After facing a tough Tampa Bay defense twice this year, Thomas finally gets to see another opponent in his third game. He should have a far easier time getting things going against the 49ers, who rank 19th in adjusted pass defense and have allowed massive performances to Davante Adams (28.3 points) and DK Metcalf (34.1) over the last two games.

As a refresher, Thomas was otherworldly in 2019, eclipsing 20 FanDuel points eight times during the regular season. This could be the rare opportunity to jump in on Thomas before everyone remembers just how good he is.

Eric Ebron, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers

FanDuel Salary: $5,400

With Travis Kelce off the slate, Darren Waller ($7,000) is easily the top projected tight end this week, which should lead to a high roster percentage for the Raiders' tight end. After him, we're really just looking for value, with guys like Dallas Goedert ($5,800), Noah Fant ($5,700), Evan Engram ($5,600), Hunter Henry ($5,500) and Austin Hooper ($5,100) all likely to garner some attention. Hooper, in particular, projects as one of the top values at the position.

Eric Ebron arguably isn't as "safe" as those other options, but that really isn't saying much at such a barren position. For lower-end tight ends, we really just need guys who have a reasonable shot of scoring touchdowns, and Ebron definitely fits the bill.

After seeing just 2 targets in Week 1, Ebron has averaged 5.9 targets per game ever since, which puts him in the range of someone like T.J. Hockenson ($6,200). And just as importantly, Ebron is one of the Steelers' top options in the red zone, as he and JuJu Smith-Schuster are tied for the most red-zone targets on the team at seven apiece.

Best of all, the matchup against the Bengals checks out. Pittsburgh has a rock-solid 26.00 implied total against a team that ranks 24th in adjusted pass defense and has allowed the second-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends.