NFL Weather Report: Week 10
Week 9 was largely unaffected by the weather with only two games expected to see winds above the 15-MPH threshold. Week 10 slingshots us right back to where we were in Week 8 as multiple games feature either rain or wind. With game totals already falling, I broke down each game to highlight any additional risk and looked at how we can adjust.
Below are the games with weather concerns headed into Week 10:
|Game||Temperature (Feels Like)||Chance of Precipitation||Wind|
|Texans at Browns||44||18%||28 mph WSW|
|Jaguars at Packers||26||6%||24 mph W|
|Bengals at Steelers||46||12%||16 mph WSW|
|Eagles at Giants||55||65%||15 mph S|
|Ravens at Patriots||52||87%||14 mph SSW|
Games Impacted by Wind
Let’s start with the games that carry the most risk -- Cleveland and Green Bay.
We saw similar conditions for the Browns back in Week 8. Coincidentally, the Thursday forecast before Cleveland’s matchup against Las Vegas looked nearly identical to this week’s. We saw how the weather affected both teams (just 22 total points scored), but there’s some required nuance to that game. The wind actually picked up to 35 MPH by game time, creating even worse conditions than expected. Regardless, fantasy managers should at least be wary of this game. Historical references give us some idea of what to expect.
Extreme conditions bring out the most common narratives surrounding weather. Short passing, decreased volume, and more rushing within scoring position were frequently featured in games with winds of at least 20 MPH.
|Neutral Pass Rate||Red Zone
The hope is that the wind will ease up and allow Cleveland's 171-foot stadium to provide cover. If not, we’ll need to make adjustments prior to Sunday afternoon with the game total already dropping 5.0 points since it opened at 54.0.
More déjà vu. Green Bay was expected to see similar conditions back in Week 8, too. Game-time conditions held at 23 MPH, and the game played out as expected. Lambeau Field (171-feet tall) provided enough of a barrier. Aaron Rodgers had a 53.8% neutral passing rate (59.6% average leading up to Week 8) while maintaining a 50% passing rate in the red zone. Green Bay also ran 65 offensive plays (season average of 64) while the Minnesota Vikings scored two touchdowns on explosive plays. Jacksonville operates at a pace similar to the Packers' pace, which should help scoring, assuming the weather conditions hold.
The other games are worth monitoring but don’t warrant too much concern. Wind speeds in Pittsburgh and East Rutherford are expected to be just over our threshold for concern at 16 and 15 MPH, respectively. Joe Burrow was featured in a game with 24-MPH winds and threw at a 63.6% rate in neutral situations in that one. His matchup against the Steelers' eighth-ranked pass D, per our schedule-adjusted metrics, is the bigger concern.
Games Impacted by Rain
The table detailing different conditions per precipitation rate is typically a tad redundant, but we need it this week.
|Condition||Precipitation (inches per hour)|
|Light Rain||.01 - .1|
|Moderate||.1 - .3|
|Heavy Rain||>= .3|
The highest projected rainfall in any game this season has been 0.04 inches per hour. We saw up to 0.15 inches per hour during one quarter of the Carolina Panthers-Atlanta Falcons Thursday game to start Week 8. The rain forecast for the Ravens-Patriots clash is easily the worst we’ve seen this season.
|Time (EST)||Precip Rate (inches per hour)|
Rainfall at this rate will have meaningful effects on the game. The Mud Bowl from 2019 in Washington saw 0.1 inches per hour throughout the game, which quickly degraded field conditions to the point where just 33 total pass attempts were made. Gillette Stadium’s playing surface was updated to synthetic turf with a VersaTile drainage system. It should keep the field from getting muddy, but it may slow down a game already projected to be a slow-paced affair. New England and Baltimore are 30th and 31st, respectively, in neutral passing rate. Should the storms hold at their current projections, both teams will struggle through the air in those conditions.