NFL

Fantasy Football: 3 Players You Can Drop After Week 9

Henry Ruggs' lack of volume makes him a drop candidate heading into Week 10. Which other players should you consider cutting ties with?

Week 9 is in the books, and we’re just a few weeks away from the fantasy playoffs. Teams at the top of the standings are stashing players for the stretch run. At the same time, managers having a rough season are scrambling for viable options on a weekly basis. Regardless of standing, we all have hard decisions to make when placing our waiver claims this week. To help, I’ve found three potential drop candidates to help churn your roster ahead of Week 10.

Quick Review

Again, this is the one column I write where I hope I’m wrong from time to time. Cutting a player is never an easy decision unless a definite reason presents itself (e.g., injury). I’ll always take a look back to either confirm my previous read on the situation or find some hope for the player to stay on your squad.

James WhiteDamien Harris and Rex Burkhead played well ahead of White (just 2 rush attempts) in Week 9. In addition, White only received 5 targets in the New England Patriots’ comeback effort against the New York Jets. Harris did suffer a chest injury during the game and his status for Week 10 is unknown. Regardless, White continues to offer little fantasy value to your roster despite the loss of offensive weapons in New England.

Mike GesickiTua Tagovailoa had his second full start, attempted more passes than in Week 8 (28 in Week 9 versus 22 in Week 8), and Gesicki saw 15.4% target share. It took a foot injury to Preston Williams and a concussion to Durham Smythe for Gesicki to get there, but it’s an improvement nonetheless. Gesicki’s value will likely be tied to the status of Williams and Smythe ahead of their Week 10 matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers. With Tua performing well, Gesicki could have some value moving forward.

Potential Drop Candidates

Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions

Yahoo! Roster Percentage: 68%

Matthew Stafford’s Week 9 performance (8.4 fantasy points) can be somewhat explained by injuries and his absence due to being placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list. However, Stafford’s play (i.e., Matt Patricia’s playcalling) hasn’t been conducive to fantasy value for multiple weeks. The Lions entered Week 9 with a 57.8% passing rate in neutral situations (league average). Their baffling approach to rotating their running backs along with limited success in the short and intermediate parts of the field has their offense in the bottom-10 in yards per drive. But Stafford hasn’t necessarily helped himself. His -1.9% completion percentage over expected has led to multiple failed drives with interceptions in the red zone, which was on display in Week 9. The Detroit Lions have multiple positive matchups over the next few weeks (Washington, Carolina, and Houston), but we’ll need to adjust our outlook for Stafford without Kenny Golladay. Since Stafford doesn’t offer any value on the ground, fantasy managers should consider other options moving forward.

Joshua Kelley, RB, Chargers

Yahoo! Roster Percentage: 42%

After Week 9, it’s clear that Joshua Kelley has fallen out of favor with the Chargers’ coaching staff. Kelley’s snap share dropped to 24% last week after a disastrous outing the previous week with just 53 scrimmage yards on 17 touches. In the meantime, Justin Jackson was proving to be the more effective runner with 143 all-purpose yards in Week 8. Jackson entered Week 9 with a knee injury, left early during the game, and Kelley was promptly outplayed by Kalen Ballage, who was elevated to the active roster just the day before.

Ballage, who started the year on the Jets’ roster, immediately handled 62.5% of the running back rush share, earned a 7.1% target share, and took a red zone carry in for a touchdown. We’ll need to see what Jackson’s status is ahead of their matchup against the Miami Dolphins, but Kelley holds minimal fantasy value after his performance over the last few weeks.

Henry Ruggs III, WR, Raiders

Yahoo! Roster Percentage: 41%

Henry Ruggs has been off the injury report since Week 5. In his return to the active lineup, he scored 19.8 fantasy points against the Kansas City Chiefs but had just a 10.0% target share in that game. Unfortunately, his small target volume wasn’t limited to just that game. Ruggs has a 12.0% target share on the season, with 5 targets back in Week 1 being a season-high. His utility as a deep threat has only yielded value in a few weeks (Weeks 1, 5, and 7).

What’s worse -- Derek Carr has other options in the deep area of the field. Nelson Agholor has more receiving yards accumulated on passes of 15-plus air yards than Ruggs. Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller have seen multiple targets downfield as well. Despite Ruggs’ consistent 3-4 targets per game, his yardage totals have dropped from 118 in Week 5 to 0 in Week 9. Without an increase or change in Ruggs’ on-field usage (e.g., more slants or carries off of jet motion), his floor should detract fantasy managers from rostering the rookie as we head towards the playoffs.

Trend to Note

D.J. Moore, WR, Panthers

Yahoo Roster Percentage: 98%

The battle throughout the early part of the season was between just D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson. Their respective aDOTs, target shares, and weighted opportunities were constantly compared for signs of who would take over. Anderson had the greater target share, but Moore’s air yards indicated that big plays were coming. Moore exploded for two touchdowns in Week 7, hitting his ceiling, but Anderson consistently earning seven to eight targets per game has allowed Robby to maintain a solid floor. Regardless, Curtis Samuel has primarily been left out of the debate, but his involvement has certainly impacted Moore this season.

Moore now has the highest aDOT (12.0), leaving Anderson (10.3) and Samuel (6.7) to work the intermediate areas of the field. The higher-leverage targets (along with rushing attempts for Samuel) have boosted the values of Anderson and Samuel, leaving Moore to rely on touchdowns or long gains for his weekly production. Week 9 highlighted the disparity in usage between all three receivers as Moore saw just 3 targets (6.8%) in a game that remained competitive until the final drive against Kansas City. We may need to adjust our expectations for Moore as his targets and routes indicate a clear role change from the past couple of seasons in Carolina.